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DataDrivenPirate Ballot for 2026 Week 8

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 19, 2026, 10:16 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Computer model that minimizes the squared error difference between projected spread and actual spread, adjusted for home field advantage (~2.5pts) and with a decay to put more weight in recent games and less weight in games earlier in the season. Ratings are centered at the median and scaled by an assumption that the spread between the best and worst team would be -60.

NOTE: this model does not cap margin of victory! That's an intentional choice, meant to lean more heavily in the opposite direction of models like Colley Matrix, Worster, etc that completely ignore margin of victory. The team is going to workshop that a bit more in the off-season, some combination of:

1) OT adjusted scores, because winning by 7 in OT is very different than winning by 7 in regulation.
2) we will never cap MoV based on our philosophy but perhaps we can apply a non-linear function to dampen it when it's beyond 28 points or something.

Missing from last week's top 15:
#26 Missouri (15.92)
#33 Mississippi State (14.56)

Top G5s
#27 Oregon State (15.73)
#30 Boise State (14.79)
#35 JMU (13.73)
#41 New Mexico (12.68)
#43 North Texas (10.99)

Rank Team Reason
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (30) They've outperformed expectation against every single opponent except for BYU: model would've expected a 7 point win this past week, instead they got a 1 point loss (adj for location).
2 Alabama Crimson Tide (29.14) The beatdowns against Kentucky and South Carolina keep Alabama highly ranked for now, they will sink with each passing week as those games lose weight
3 LSU Tigers (28.76) This is the logical conclusion of a model that does not cap margin-of-victory. We'll workshop it in the offseason
4 Ohio State Buckeyes (28.21)
5 Miami Hurricanes (27.05)
6 Georgia Bulldogs (25.72)
7 Indiana Hoosiers (24.49)
8 Texas Longhorns (24.11) I don't like it any more than y'all do but their win against OSU still holds a lot of weight
9 Oregon Ducks (23.60) Nebraska's close game against Indiana means Oregon's victory against Nebraska is worth quite a bit
10 UCLA Bruins (23.51)
11 Ole Miss Rebels
12 Tennessee Volunteers
13 Utah Utes
14 Houston Cougars
15 Kentucky Wildcats (20.62)
16 Nebraska Cornhuskers
17 BYU Cougars (20.59) Best resume in the country in my opinion but their win against Notre Dame is the first time this season that they've overperformed against expectation. Their 7 point win against TCU is holding them back.
18 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
19 Texas Tech Red Raiders
20 Florida Gators (18.92)
21 Northwestern Wildcats
22 Iowa Hawkeyes
23 Oklahoma State Cowboys
24 South Carolina Gamecocks (16.45) Close loss @ Kentucky is viewed as a 2pt win when adjusted for location, big win against Florida boosts them quite a bit too. The model will continue to be addicted to South Carolina and Nebraska, it fucking loves close losses and those two teams love close losses too
25 Auburn Tigers (15.97)

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