Back to poll results >>

ExternalTangents Ballot for 2026 Week 8

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 19, 2026, 10:38 a.m.

Overall Rationale: These rankings are a calculated Strength of Record rating. They are not predictive, but they are derived from an underlying predictive metric.

This ranks teams by how hard their record would be to match. It's a measure of what they've achieved, not what we predict they'll do.

For each team, the model takes an average top-12 team and imagines it playing the team in question's exact schedule: same opponents, same sites, with opponents rated by the same opponent-adjusted system used for the main predictive rankings. It then computes the chance that this hypothetical strong team would finish with a record at least as good as the team being rated. A lower percentage means a more impressive resume: it means even an elite team would struggle to match what this team has actually done.

On the underlying predictive rating: I run a algorithm called ExTAN (https://externaltangents.com/ExTAN/). That algorithm is predictive and bases its formula on in-season results (scores, home/away, and opponent). That algorithm would rank as one of the highest predictive winner accuracy rates on PredictionTracker.com, and is in the top 20 in most other metrics. Those predictive ratings are used to calculate the Strength of Record used in these rankings.

Back to poll results >>