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LegionMammal978 Ballot for 2026 Week 8

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 18, 2026, 10:30 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Computer poll that comes up with the simplest explanation for all W/L results in the current season (a maximum-likelihood estimate), balancing the strength of each team's best wins against its worst losses. The underlying probability model is an Elo-style logistic curve P[A > B] = 1/(1+10^[(B-A)/400]). The ranking is based only on this season's graph of wins and losses: it does not consider MoV, rosters, previous seasons, conferences and divisions, etc. Every week is counted equally. Lower NCAA divisions are included in the calculations, but this top 25 is filtered to FBS teams. A tie counts as ½ W + ½ L. For the MLE to converge, I add two fictitious teams, one who has beaten everyone and one who has lost to everyone, then stretch the gap between them to infinity. The teams gather into groups between the two ("circles of suck" where each team has transitively beaten the rest), characterized by a Group Score (GS) for each group and relative Team Scores (TS) within each group. Group Scores have the property that no team with a lower GS has beaten a team with a higher GS. For each team in a group, I've listed the computed balance between wins and losses to yield its Team Score within its group. The full ranking can be found at <https://gist.github.com/LegionMammal978/90ab9afb4e2f2b8f172860e6a6335009>. All data is sourced from CollegeFootballData.com.

Rank Team Reason
1 BYU Cougars (+6) GS .952, TS 105.
2 Texas Tech Red Raiders (+10) GS .952, TS 53.
3 Miami Hurricanes (−1½) GS .937, TS 421.
4 James Madison Dukes (+18) GS .937, TS −162.
5 UCLA Bruins (−1½) GS .929, TS 157.
6 Utah Utes (+10) GS .905, TS 657.
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (−3½) GS .905, TS 209.
8 Houston Cougars (+19) GS .905, TS 106.
9 Arizona Wildcats (+14) GS .881, TS 517.
10 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (−4½) GS .873, TS 841.
11 Liberty Flames (+37) GS .873, TS −324.
12 Wisconsin Badgers (+16) GS .857, TS 314.
13 Oregon State Beavers (+28) GS .857, TS 158.
14 Kentucky Wildcats (−3) GS .810, TS 2078: 54.6% #20 LSU + 32.2% #25 South Carolina + 9.5% #28 Oklahoma + 3.7% #32 Texas A&M = 100% #16 Alabama.
15 Tennessee Volunteers (+11) GS .810, TS 2059: 64.0% #16 Alabama + 35.6% #22 Auburn + 0.4% #41 Arkansas = 100% #24 Texas.
16 Alabama Crimson Tide (−10½) GS .810, TS 2050: 50.9% #14 Kentucky + 30.4% #21 Mississippi State + 18.7% #25 South Carolina = 54.0% #18 Georgia + 46.0% #15 Tennessee.
17 Ole Miss Rebels (+12) GS .810, TS 2043: 55.5% #20 LSU + 44.3% #23 Missouri + 0.1% #46 Vanderbilt = 100% #19 Florida.
18 Georgia Bulldogs (−16½) GS .810, TS 1999: 87.2% #16 Alabama + 11.9% #28 Oklahoma + 0.7% #41 Arkansas + 0.1% #46 Vanderbilt = 100% #22 Auburn.
19 Florida Gators (+5) GS .810, TS 1966: 45.1% #17 Ole Miss + 28.8% #22 Auburn + 25.9% #24 Texas + 0.2% Campbell = 52.9% #25 South Carolina + 47.1% #23 Missouri.
20 LSU Tigers (+13) GS .810, TS 1926: 77.8% #21 Mississippi State + 14.8% #29 Clemson + 7.3% #32 Texas A&M + 0.1% #55 Louisiana Tech = 53.4% #17 Ole Miss + 46.6% #14 Kentucky.
21 Mississippi State Bulldogs (−11½) GS .810, TS 1920: 52.6% #23 Missouri + 42.1% #25 South Carolina + 5.3% #33 Minnesota = 60.5% #20 LSU + 39.5% #16 Alabama.
22 Auburn Tigers (+8) GS .810, TS 1887: 99.7% #18 Georgia + 0.2% #46 Vanderbilt + 0.1% #50 Baylor = 58.9% #19 Florida + 41.1% #15 Tennessee.
23 Missouri Tigers (−9) GS .810, TS 1870: 91.0% #19 Florida + 9.0% #32 Texas A&M = 61.3% #21 Mississippi State + 38.7% #17 Ole Miss.
24 Texas Longhorns (−5) GS .810, TS 1858: 64.0% #15 Tennessee + 34.8% #26 Ohio State + 1.2% #40 UTSA = 70.6% #28 Oklahoma + 29.4% #19 Florida.
25 South Carolina Gamecocks (−10) GS .810, TS 1807: 100% #19 Florida = 47.9% #21 Mississippi State + 27.7% #16 Alabama + 24.3% #14 Kentucky.

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