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LookAtMaxwell Ballot for 2026 Week 8

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 18, 2026, 2:43 a.m.

Overall Rationale: A computer ballot. Monte Carlo of a multiple elimination bracket. Teams are randomly seeded. Wins in the bracket are assigned first by head-to-head performance on the field. Second by transitive wins, Third by simulation. Teams are ranked first by their median ranking, then by their average ranking. As the season goes on and more of these teams play each other, more matchups will be decided by results instead of simulation.

55.9% of the higher ranked teams from last week ranking won their game this week. One of the worst predictions for the model in the 5 years of backtesting.

Oregon and Nebraska, kept the top25 rankings from being finalized up unto the last second.

The model has been down on BYU in particular since the start, and this week is no different. 1-3 remained the same as last week, even though two of the teams lost, but I am not going to massage the model in the middle of the season.

Rank Team Reason
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish finishes 1st–4th in 8 of 10 brackets
The loss at BYU (28-24) is Notre Dame’s only rule loss. Its 35 rule wins include Wisconsin, which it beat 41-13. Notre Dame is #1 mainly because of its simulated games: it wins 97% of them against the field and 88% against the top 25, the best of any team. It also has the best expected scoring margin (40.5 for, 15.5 against).

The simple scoring model used may be showing its weakness. But Losing to undefeated BYU really doesn't hurt Notre Dame in the bracket system used. Only, if they happen to end up facing each other does it hurt them. Call this a quality loss -- only when BYU starts to loss to other teams will it start to hurt Notre Dame more.
2 Miami Hurricanes 1st–7th in 8 of 10 brackets
Miami has no rule losses and 32 rule wins, including Wake Forest, which it beat 33-20 on the road. It also won at Clemson 41-13 and beat Florida State 43-35 this week. It wins 94% of its simulated games. It’s the only unbeaten in the top three, but Notre Dame finishes ahead of it in 76% of brackets.
3 Georgia Bulldogs 2nd–10th in 8 of 10 brackets
Georgia has the deepest top-25 résumé: its rule wins include Alabama (20-17 on the road), Ohio State, Texas, LSU, Kentucky and New Mexico. The home loss to Auburn added rule losses to Auburn, Florida and Tennessee. Georgia still holds 3rd, but its range widened.
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 2nd–11th in 8 of 10 brackets
Ohio State won 19-15 at Indiana, which gave it rule wins over Indiana, Nebraska and Northwestern. It has 42 rule wins, but also 7 rule losses because the one-point loss at Texas sends chains through Texas’s wins. It wins 95% of its simulated games, which lifts it past Alabama and Indiana.
5 Alabama Crimson Tide 2nd–10th in 8 of 10 brackets
Alabama has two close-to-moderate losses: 20-17 to Georgia and 26-10 at Tennessee. Its rule wins include Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss and New Mexico. It’s still one of the strongest teams in the simulated games, with an expected 40.7 points per game.
6 Indiana Hoosiers 3rd–12th in 8 of 10 brackets
The 4-point home loss to Ohio State is Indiana’s only loss. It beat Nebraska and Northwestern, but chains through the Ohio State loss and Texas cost it rule losses.
7 UCLA Bruins 4th–13th in 8 of 10 brackets
UCLA has the most rule wins of any team without a rule loss: 45, including Oregon, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Boise State. Its simulated strength is lower than the teams above it (54% against the top 25). It finishes ahead of LSU in only 45% of brackets, so 7th and 8th are close to a coin flip.
8 LSU Tigers 3rd–14th in 8 of 10 brackets
LSU is the oddest result in the top 10. It has no rule wins over top-25 teams, and its losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky chain into rule losses to Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. It ranks this high on simulated strength: it wins 95% against the field and 77% against the top 25. Lopsided wins like 51-10 over Clemson and 31-0 over Mississippi State drive that.
9 Texas Longhorns 3rd–23rd in 8 of 10 brackets
Texas has head-to-head wins over Ohio State and Tennessee, which give it 43 rule wins, including Alabama, Indiana and Northwestern. Its two 3-point losses, to Oklahoma and Florida, chain into 9 rule losses, the most in the top 10. Its 3rd–23rd range is the widest in the top 10.
10 Tennessee Volunteers 4th–19th in 8 of 10 brackets
up 15 spots
Beating Alabama 26-10 completed Tennessee’s chain over Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Kentucky. Its only loss is 20-17 to Texas. It’s weaker in simulated games (50% against the top 25), which keeps it at the start of the big tier.
11 Utah Utes No rule losses, but only 26 rule wins and none over top-25 teams. Its schedule (Arkansas, Iowa State, Kansas, Colorado) has few chains to the top, so 111 of its matchups are simulated.
12 BYU Cougars up from 19th, finishes 4th–20th in 8 of 10 brackets
BYU has 40 rule wins and no rule losses. Beating Notre Dame 28-24 doubled its rule wins and added chains through Notre Dame to North Carolina, Penn State and Wisconsin, on top of Arizona from its own schedule. BYU is weaker in simulated games: it wins 83% against the field and 56% against the top 25. Its expected 29.6 points per game keeps it behind Notre Dame despite the head-to-head win. Its 4th–20th range is one of the widest in the top25, so its upside is the highest.
13 Texas Tech Red Raiders down from 10th, 9th–22nd in 8 of 10 brackets
Texas Tech beat Arizona State 53-25 and still fell three spots. That’s because teams around it gained: Tennessee, BYU and LSU all jumped past it. Its 29 rule wins without a rule loss include Houston (28-26), Oregon State, and, through chains, Oklahoma State and Oregon. Its strength in simulated games is about the same as BYU’s. BYU has more and better rule wins, so it finishes ahead.
14 Northwestern Wildcats up from 15th, 10th–23rd in 8 of 10 brackets
Northwestern has the thinnest résumé in this group: 20 rule wins, the only top-40 one being Penn State (34-13). Its only loss, 29-23 at Indiana, gives it rule losses to Indiana, Ohio State and Texas. It’s the strong in simulated games (85% against the field, 58% against the top 25). That makes up for the light résumé. This week’s 24-21 win at Michigan State moved it up one spot.
15 Houston Cougars 12th–24th in 8 of 10 brackets
Houston has 35 rule wins, Its only loss is 28-26 at Texas Tech, and that head-to-head result is the reason Texas Tech sits two spots ahead. Beating Oklahoma State 35-32 this week moved it up one spot.
16 Nebraska Cornhuskers
17 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
18 Kentucky Wildcats
19 Ole Miss Rebels
20 New Mexico Lobos Its only loss was 14-6 at Oklahoma, which chains into 8 rule losses, including Alabama, Georgia and Kentucky. It has 11 rule wins and is mostly held up by simulated games (85% against the field).
21 Wisconsin Badgers
22 Boise State Broncos 33 rule wins. Its only loss, 34-27 at Oregon, chains into rule losses to UCLA, Houston and Oklahoma State. It finishes ahead of James Madison in 65% of brackets.
23 James Madison Dukes One of only two unbeatens outside the power conferences. Its 20-13 win over Liberty is a rule win over a top-25 team. Its simulated strength is low (28% against the top 25), which caps it in the low 20s.
24 Liberty Flames Its only loss is to James Madison. It has just 10 rule wins, so most of its spot comes from simulated games.
25 Oregon Ducks

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