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ExternalTangents Ballot for 2026 Week 7

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 13, 2026, 8:12 a.m.

Overall Rationale: READ MORE HERE:
https://externaltangents.com/ExTAN/

PREDICTIVE ACCURACY:
A team's rating is meant to be predictive of future results. This system consistently ranks highly against systems tracked on PredictionTracker.com for straight-up winner accuracy (78.7%, would be #4 on PredictionTracker for 2026 season to date), average absolute error (12.4, would be #22), and ATS (51.1%, would be #19). Win chances for individual games also track closely with observed win rates--for example, teams given a 75% chance to win a game are victorious about 75% of the time.

THE MAIN IDEA:
Each team is rated by two numbers: an offense rating (how many more or fewer points it scores than an average team would against the same opponents) and a defense rating (how many more or fewer points it allows, where lower is better). The difference between those two values (offense minus defense) is a team's Expected Team Average Net (ExTAN) rating, which corresponds to how many points the team would be expected to beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field. Subtract two teams' ExTAN ratings to get the expected spread between them at a neutral site. Apply 2.9 points for homefield advantage.

HOW IT'S CALCULATED:
Only game scores and locations are used for evaluating in-season results. Offense and defense ratings are calculated by adjusting for the quality of the opponent and for home field. Because each team's rating depends on its opponents' ratings, the model adjusts all teams together, repeatedly, until every rating is consistent with every result — strength of schedule is built into the method rather than added afterward. Early in the season, when there is little to go on, ratings are blended with a preseason estimate built from last year's final rating and recruiting talent; that estimate fades as real games accumulate.

Lots more detail about the ratings (including full rankings, team pages, accuracy tracking, and predictions) can be found at the ratings site: https://externaltangents.com/ExTAN/

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Note: read the overall rationale for full explanation. Overall rating is projected spread vs average FBS team. Offense is "points scored above replacement" and defense is "points allowed above replacement" (negative is better for defense).

Overall +34.8; offense +20.5 (1st), defense -14.3 (4th)
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Overall +32.5; offense +18.5 (3rd), defense -14.0 (5th)
3 Georgia Bulldogs Overall +32.3; offense +19.0 (2nd), defense -13.3 (7th)
4 Miami Hurricanes Overall +31.0; offense +17.8 (4th), defense -13.1 (8th)
5 Ohio State Buckeyes Overall +30.3; offense +15.9 (5th), defense -14.4 (3rd)
6 Texas Longhorns Overall +27.1; offense +10.7 (16th), defense -16.4 (1st)
7 LSU Tigers Overall +25.9; offense +14.7 (7th), defense -11.3 (9th)
8 Oregon Ducks Overall +25.3; offense +14.9 (6th), defense -10.3 (11th)
9 Indiana Hoosiers Overall +24.3; offense +9.6 (19th), defense -14.7 (2nd)
10 Utah Utes Overall +21.0; offense +12.5 (11th), defense -8.5 (19th)
11 Ole Miss Rebels Overall +19.0; offense +13.8 (9th), defense -5.2 (35th)
12 Tennessee Volunteers Overall +18.4; offense +11.2 (13th), defense -7.3 (24th)
13 Missouri Tigers Overall +18.3; offense +7.2 (27th), defense -11.2 (10th)
14 Oklahoma Sooners Overall +17.0; offense +3.2 (53rd), defense -13.9 (6th)
15 Texas Tech Red Raiders Overall +16.7; offense +8.1 (24th), defense -8.6 (17th)
16 Kentucky Wildcats Overall +16.7; offense +10.0 (18th), defense -6.7 (28th)
17 Florida Gators Overall +16.5; offense +13.0 (10th), defense -3.5 (42nd)
18 Mississippi State Bulldogs Overall +16.5; offense +14.0 (8th), defense -2.5 (52nd)
19 Texas A&M Aggies Overall +16.5; offense +6.2 (29th), defense -10.3 (12th)
20 Nebraska Cornhuskers Overall +16.4; offense +9.6 (20th), defense -6.9 (26th)
21 UCLA Bruins Overall +15.9; offense +9.4 (22nd), defense -6.5 (29th)
22 South Carolina Gamecocks Overall +15.9; offense +9.5 (21st), defense -6.4 (30th)
23 Iowa Hawkeyes Overall +15.5; offense +5.5 (34th), defense -10.0 (13th)
24 Houston Cougars Overall +15.4; offense +10.1 (17th), defense -5.3 (34th)
25 Northwestern Wildcats Overall +15.2; offense +7.9 (25th), defense -7.3 (23rd)

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