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mathwrath55 Ballot for 2026 Week 7

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 11, 2026, 9:12 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Changed my methodology to include resume now!

The first stage is a predictive model using a Kalman filter to assign an offense and defense rating to all teams across FBS and FCS (offense as the number of points they would score against the average defense, defense as how much better they are than the average defense). Overall rating is (offense-defense), and the difference between Team A and Team B's rating is how much A would be expected to beat B by on a neutral field. Margin of victory matters, and preseason ratings are based on the historical correlations between team ratings in two consecutive years. Data for the last 10 years is loaded in, though earlier data barely matters. Results will track comparably with other well-known predictive models like FPI and SP+, although this model only considers what happens on the field (albeit including previous years). It is also not unlike the results an Elo model would give if Elo allowed larger jumps for early-season games and allowed for retroactive adjustment of opponent ratings. At the moment the uncertainty in each team's power rating is a standard deviation of about 7 points.

I use the results of this predictive model to drive a resume calculation. My definition of a resume power is "what power would a hypothetical team need to have in order to have a 50% chance of matching or exceeding this team's record in their completed games?" Note that this doesn't care which games you win and lose, only how many- e.g. beating Oregon and losing to Tulsa gives the same resume score as beating Tulsa and losing to Oregon. The methodology means you aren't punished much for losing to good teams and aren't rewarded much for beating bad teams. Also note that because there are a lot more ways to go X-1 than X-0, staying undefeated indirectly makes a resume quite a bit stronger. Overall, this method acts a lot like ESPN's SOR, but with the added benefit of assigning a numerical power.

One benefit of this resume ranking methodology is that like my predictive ranking, it has units of points. I feel like a good overall ranking should include both resume and prediction of how strong a team is, and my methodology allows me to directly average the two numbers to create a hybrid ranking accounting for both. Overall I find it fairly hard to argue with a lot of its team placements, especially compared to the older version of my model which only accounted for the predictive side.

Hybrid Rankings
Power Ranking
Rank | Team | Record| Proj Rec| Hybrid | Power | Resume | Offense| Defense
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#1 | Georgia | 6-0 |11.0-1.0 | 76.69 | 72.83 | 80.55 | 51.60 | -21.23
#2 | Notre Dame | 6-0 |11.4-0.6 | 72.27 | 75.71 | 68.83 | 53.14 | -22.57
#3 | Alabama | 5-1 |10.2-1.8 | 71.20 | 75.20 | 67.21 | 53.59 | -21.60
#4 | Indiana | 6-0 |11.0-1.0 | 71.13 | 70.99 | 71.27 | 46.62 | -24.37
#5 | Miami | 5-0 |10.9-1.1 | 70.35 | 72.21 | 68.50 | 51.45 | -20.76
#6 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 9.4-2.6 | 68.03 | 73.11 | 62.94 | 50.50 | -22.61
#7 | UCLA | 5-0 |10.4-1.6 | 66.80 | 61.50 | 72.10 | 44.03 | -17.47
#8 | Texas | 4-1 | 8.9-3.1 | 66.16 | 67.27 | 65.04 | 44.96 | -22.31
#9 | Utah | 5-0 |10.9-1.1 | 66.07 | 69.10 | 63.03 | 49.45 | -19.66
#10 | Texas Tech | 5-0 |10.2-1.8 | 63.86 | 61.26 | 66.46 | 43.24 | -18.02
#11 | Kentucky | 5-1 | 8.1-3.9 | 63.27 | 58.19 | 68.34 | 44.13 | -14.06
#12 | Wake Forest | 5-1 | 9.9-2.1 | 62.70 | 61.13 | 64.26 | 43.98 | -17.15
#13 | BYU | 5-0 | 9.1-2.9 | 62.69 | 59.78 | 65.61 | 40.31 | -19.47
#14 | Iowa | 5-1 | 9.1-2.9 | 62.50 | 62.69 | 62.31 | 42.89 | -19.80
#15 | Ole Miss | 4-1 | 8.1-3.9 | 62.10 | 61.78 | 62.42 | 48.06 | -13.72
#16 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 7.8-4.2 | 61.33 | 57.55 | 65.11 | 46.95 | -10.60
#17 | Missouri | 5-1 | 8.2-3.8 | 61.02 | 61.70 | 60.34 | 42.05 | -19.65
#18 | Houston | 5-1 | 9.1-2.9 | 59.77 | 59.30 | 60.23 | 44.80 | -14.49
#19 | Oregon | 3-2 | 8.0-4.0 | 59.00 | 66.07 | 51.93 | 47.90 | -18.17
#20 | LSU | 4-2 | 7.7-4.3 | 58.94 | 65.34 | 52.55 | 48.19 | -17.14
#21 | Tennessee | 5-1 | 8.0-4.0 | 58.92 | 60.18 | 57.66 | 43.70 | -16.48
#22 | USC | 6-1 | 8.0-4.0 | 58.69 | 57.68 | 59.70 | 45.31 | -12.37
#23 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 8.3-3.7 | 58.63 | 57.60 | 59.66 | 40.10 | -17.50
#24 | Oklahoma | 3-2 | 6.6-5.4 | 58.08 | 58.85 | 57.31 | 38.50 | -20.36
#25 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 8.2-3.8 | 57.91 | 61.01 | 54.81 | 43.91 | -17.09
#26 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 57.07 | 61.55 | 52.60 | 44.60 | -16.94
#27 | Boise State | 5-1 | 9.0-2.0 | 56.15 | 54.96 | 57.34 | 43.07 | -11.89
#28 | Florida | 4-2 | 6.6-5.4 | 55.69 | 56.70 | 54.68 | 46.76 | -9.94
#29 | Arizona | 5-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 55.54 | 56.95 | 54.13 | 42.33 | -14.62
#30 | James Madison | 6-0 |11.1-0.9 | 53.21 | 52.84 | 53.58 | 41.91 | -10.94
#31 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 7.4-4.6 | 52.75 | 51.75 | 53.75 | 40.47 | -11.29
#32 | Baylor | 4-1 | 7.5-4.5 | 52.29 | 55.65 | 48.93 | 40.94 | -14.71
#33 | Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 8.5-3.5 | 52.18 | 54.13 | 50.22 | 39.78 | -14.35
#34 | North Carolina | 3-2 | 6.5-5.5 | 51.80 | 50.90 | 52.70 | 35.55 | -15.35
#35 | Auburn | 3-2 | 5.9-6.1 | 51.72 | 54.32 | 49.12 | 37.50 | -16.82
#36 | Louisville | 3-3 | 7.1-4.9 | 51.57 | 58.29 | 44.85 | 46.13 | -12.16
#37 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 6.1-5.9 | 50.58 | 57.39 | 43.77 | 43.65 | -13.74
#38 | SMU | 4-1 | 7.9-4.1 | 50.54 | 49.65 | 51.43 | 39.10 | -10.55
#39 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 5.7-6.3 | 50.50 | 56.88 | 44.12 | 38.95 | -17.93
#40 | Purdue | 3-3 | 5.4-6.6 | 49.89 | 50.54 | 49.24 | 41.04 | -9.50
#41 | Duke | 4-1 | 7.5-4.5 | 49.85 | 52.03 | 47.68 | 38.68 | -13.35
#42 | Clemson | 3-2 | 6.9-5.1 | 49.75 | 47.93 | 51.57 | 34.28 | -13.65
#43 | Michigan | 3-2 | 5.8-6.2 | 49.39 | 53.11 | 45.66 | 36.38 | -16.73
#44 | UTSA | 5-1 | 9.0-3.0 | 48.84 | 44.84 | 52.84 | 37.33 | -7.51
#45 | Oregon State | 4-2 | 7.7-3.3 | 48.69 | 54.77 | 42.60 | 43.24 | -11.53
#46 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 6.2-5.8 | 47.75 | 47.37 | 48.13 | 37.96 | -9.41
#47 | Minnesota | 4-2 | 5.1-6.9 | 47.54 | 46.44 | 48.64 | 34.85 | -11.60
#48 | Penn State | 3-3 | 7.2-4.8 | 47.19 | 55.71 | 38.67 | 39.36 | -16.35
#49 | Iowa State | 3-3 | 6.2-5.8 | 46.83 | 53.32 | 40.34 | 39.49 | -13.83
#50 | Memphis | 5-1 | 9.1-2.9 | 46.75 | 47.46 | 46.04 | 39.66 | -7.80
#51 | UCF | 3-3 | 6.0-6.0 | 46.60 | 49.43 | 43.77 | 37.73 | -11.71
#52 | New Mexico | 4-1 |10.2-1.8 | 46.32 | 55.07 | 37.57 | 41.81 | -13.26
#53 | Virginia | 4-2 | 7.0-5.0 | 45.57 | 49.28 | 41.86 | 35.58 | -13.71
#54 | North Texas | 4-2 | 8.5-3.5 | 45.10 | 48.51 | 41.68 | 45.86 | -2.65
#55 | Florida State | 3-3 | 6.0-6.0 | 44.94 | 50.98 | 38.90 | 39.59 | -11.39
#56 | Kansas State | 3-2 | 6.7-5.3 | 44.92 | 51.68 | 38.17 | 40.21 | -11.47
#57 | NC State | 3-3 | 6.6-5.4 | 44.87 | 48.80 | 40.94 | 40.42 | -8.38
#58 | Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 4.5-7.5 | 44.70 | 46.87 | 42.52 | 36.60 | -10.27
#59 | Illinois | 3-3 | 4.9-7.1 | 44.64 | 50.34 | 38.93 | 41.09 | -9.25
#60 | Fresno State | 4-2 | 6.9-4.1 | 43.59 | 45.04 | 42.14 | 34.57 | -10.48
#61 | Arizona State | 3-2 | 5.2-6.8 | 43.51 | 44.38 | 42.64 | 37.91 | -6.47
#62 | Washington | 3-3 | 4.8-7.2 | 43.21 | 50.44 | 35.98 | 37.74 | -12.70
#63 | Virginia Tech | 4-2 | 6.6-5.4 | 42.87 | 45.24 | 40.49 | 38.31 | -6.93
#64 | Liberty | 5-1 | 9.9-2.1 | 42.66 | 43.21 | 42.12 | 33.01 | -10.20
#65 | North Dakota State | 5-1 | 9.5-2.5 | 42.50 | 44.09 | 40.91 | 31.62 | -12.47
#66 | Louisiana Tech | 3-2 | 7.9-4.1 | 41.89 | 40.96 | 42.82 | 37.21 | -3.75
#67 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 4.6-7.4 | 41.46 | 44.28 | 38.64 | 42.22 | -2.06
#68 | UNLV | 4-2 | 7.9-4.1 | 41.27 | 41.31 | 41.23 | 30.38 | -10.93
#69 | South Dakota State | 5-1 | 9.9-2.1 | 40.96 | 39.93 | 42.00 | 33.74 | -6.19
#70 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 3.9-8.1 | 40.76 | 46.93 | 34.60 | 34.42 | -12.50
#71 | Georgia State | 4-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 40.75 | 41.99 | 39.50 | 37.63 | -4.36
#72 | Colorado | 2-3 | 3.6-8.4 | 40.52 | 39.61 | 41.43 | 29.03 | -10.58
#73 | South Florida | 4-2 | 7.9-4.1 | 39.82 | 41.99 | 37.65 | 31.86 | -10.13
#74 | Army | 3-2 | 6.8-4.2 | 39.55 | 43.76 | 35.34 | 34.00 | -9.76
#75 | Western Michigan | 4-2 | 8.5-3.5 | 39.53 | 41.17 | 37.89 | 30.20 | -10.96
#76 | California | 3-3 | 4.7-7.3 | 38.88 | 38.95 | 38.81 | 32.66 | -6.29
#77 | TCU | 2-3 | 4.9-7.1 | 38.87 | 50.90 | 26.85 | 33.61 | -17.28
#78 | Air Force | 4-1 | 7.9-4.1 | 38.44 | 38.08 | 38.80 | 30.68 | -7.40
#79 | Arkansas | 2-4 | 3.3-8.7 | 38.41 | 44.73 | 32.09 | 33.74 | -10.99
#80 | Florida Atlantic | 4-1 | 6.7-5.3 | 37.75 | 35.88 | 39.61 | 34.54 | -1.33
#81 | Georgia Tech | 2-3 | 4.3-7.7 | 37.11 | 45.14 | 29.09 | 36.49 | -8.64
#82 | Youngstown State | 5-2 | 8.4-2.6 | 36.57 | 38.29 | 34.86 | 36.13 | -2.17
#83 | South Alabama | 4-2 | 7.4-4.6 | 36.31 | 35.36 | 37.26 | 39.42 | 4.06
#84 | Maryland | 2-4 | 3.6-8.4 | 36.27 | 39.22 | 33.32 | 35.13 | -4.09
#85 | Toledo | 4-2 | 8.6-3.4 | 36.19 | 40.85 | 31.53 | 35.89 | -4.96
#86 | Louisiana | 4-2 | 7.9-4.1 | 36.04 | 37.73 | 34.36 | 30.78 | -6.95
#87 | Texas State | 2-3 | 5.1-5.9 | 35.94 | 43.12 | 28.77 | 38.92 | -4.19
#88 | Syracuse | 2-3 | 4.2-7.8 | 35.86 | 42.20 | 29.51 | 35.98 | -6.23
#89 | Tulane | 2-3 | 5.8-6.2 | 35.55 | 39.46 | 31.63 | 27.46 | -12.00
#90 | Tulsa | 3-3 | 6.1-5.9 | 35.54 | 36.58 | 34.51 | 31.20 | -5.38
#91 | Stanford | 2-4 | 3.7-8.3 | 35.26 | 31.19 | 39.34 | 30.07 | -1.11
#92 | Kansas | 2-3 | 5.3-6.7 | 34.75 | 51.35 | 18.16 | 40.22 | -11.13
#93 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 7.8-4.2 | 34.67 | 33.80 | 35.54 | 30.18 | -3.62
#94 | Ohio | 4-2 | 8.1-3.9 | 34.66 | 34.83 | 34.48 | 29.50 | -5.33
#95 | UConn | 3-3 | 6.5-5.5 | 34.45 | 40.32 | 28.59 | 35.93 | -4.39
#96 | Tarleton State | 6-0 |10.9-1.1 | 34.45 | 28.39 | 40.51 | 32.00 | 3.61
#97 | East Carolina | 3-2 | 7.0-5.0 | 34.42 | 39.21 | 29.63 | 31.19 | -8.02
#98 | Utah State | 2-4 | 4.0-7.0 | 32.69 | 37.56 | 27.82 | 26.90 | -10.66
#99 | Georgia Southern | 2-4 | 5.5-6.5 | 32.34 | 38.15 | 26.54 | 31.71 | -6.44
#100 | South Dakota | 5-2 | 8.4-3.6 | 32.24 | 35.75 | 28.74 | 33.01 | -2.73
#101 | Troy | 3-2 | 6.2-5.8 | 31.76 | 35.46 | 28.06 | 31.85 | -3.61
#102 | Temple | 2-4 | 5.4-6.6 | 31.65 | 36.80 | 26.50 | 30.95 | -5.85
#103 | San Diego State | 2-4 | 3.6-7.4 | 31.45 | 31.96 | 30.95 | 29.12 | -2.84
#104 | Montana State | 5-1 | 9.9-2.1 | 31.33 | 34.76 | 27.89 | 29.91 | -4.85
#105 | Boston College | 2-3 | 3.0-9.0 | 30.95 | 33.89 | 28.01 | 25.39 | -8.50
#106 | Stephen F. Austin | 6-0 |11.2-0.8 | 30.88 | 28.98 | 32.79 | 26.65 | -2.33
#107 | Florida International | 3-2 | 6.9-5.1 | 30.64 | 33.48 | 27.80 | 22.92 | -10.57
#108 | Miami (OH) | 3-3 | 6.4-5.6 | 30.63 | 32.39 | 28.87 | 28.84 | -3.55
#109 | App State | 3-2 | 6.1-5.9 | 29.48 | 32.44 | 26.51 | 27.76 | -4.69
#110 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 3.9-7.1 | 29.29 | 34.96 | 23.61 | 39.28 | 4.32
#111 | Navy | 2-3 | 4.3-6.7 | 29.05 | 36.25 | 21.85 | 30.05 | -6.20
#112 | Northern Arizona | 5-2 | 8.9-3.1 | 28.66 | 24.88 | 32.43 | 28.91 | 4.02
#113 | UAB | 3-3 | 4.8-7.2 | 28.41 | 28.10 | 28.72 | 25.19 | -2.91
#114 | Central Michigan | 3-3 | 6.3-5.7 | 28.31 | 28.99 | 27.63 | 25.28 | -3.70
#115 | Old Dominion | 2-4 | 4.7-7.3 | 27.86 | 30.96 | 24.77 | 24.17 | -6.78
#116 | Buffalo | 3-3 | 6.2-5.8 | 27.74 | 27.27 | 28.21 | 26.01 | -1.27
#117 | San José State | 3-3 | 5.5-7.5 | 27.74 | 28.23 | 27.25 | 24.97 | -3.26
#118 | Eastern Michigan | 4-3 | 5.8-6.2 | 27.33 | 27.46 | 27.20 | 25.56 | -1.90
#119 | Illinois State | 4-2 | 7.7-4.3 | 27.13 | 30.69 | 23.57 | 28.46 | -2.23
#120 | Lehigh | 6-0 |11.0-1.0 | 26.94 | 27.50 | 26.37 | 24.91 | -2.59
#121 | Arkansas State | 2-4 | 5.1-6.9 | 26.70 | 32.77 | 20.62 | 31.30 | -1.47
#122 | Montana | 5-2 | 8.6-3.4 | 26.65 | 30.75 | 22.55 | 33.03 | 2.28
#123 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 4.9-7.1 | 26.13 | 25.01 | 27.24 | 19.15 | -5.86
#124 | Delaware | 2-3 | 5.5-6.5 | 25.86 | 29.09 | 22.62 | 26.94 | -2.16
#125 | Harvard | 4-0 | 8.3-1.7 | 25.79 | 21.54 | 30.04 | 22.94 | 1.40
#126 | Nevada | 2-3 | 4.5-7.5 | 25.67 | 32.25 | 19.09 | 28.17 | -4.07
#127 | Marshall | 3-3 | 5.0-7.0 | 24.93 | 24.67 | 25.20 | 27.23 | 2.57
#128 | Coastal Carolina | 2-4 | 4.1-7.9 | 24.38 | 29.81 | 18.94 | 26.88 | -2.94
#129 | Austin Peay | 5-2 | 9.1-2.9 | 24.33 | 27.92 | 20.74 | 28.72 | 0.80
#130 | Bowling Green | 2-4 | 4.7-7.3 | 24.00 | 26.56 | 21.44 | 23.26 | -3.29
#131 | Massachusetts | 4-2 | 6.3-5.7 | 23.96 | 25.04 | 22.88 | 24.50 | -0.54
#132 | Northern Iowa | 3-2 | 5.7-5.3 | 23.96 | 24.13 | 23.79 | 24.33 | 0.20
#133 | North Dakota | 5-2 | 6.9-5.1 | 23.89 | 27.37 | 20.41 | 30.16 | 2.79
#134 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 4.9-7.1 | 22.93 | 28.42 | 17.45 | 26.21 | -2.20
#135 | Campbell | 5-1 | 9.0-3.0 | 22.87 | 15.27 | 30.48 | 23.77 | 8.50
#136 | Lamar | 5-1 | 8.5-3.5 | 22.85 | 17.95 | 27.76 | 21.32 | 3.37
#137 | Tennessee Tech | 5-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 22.25 | 20.03 | 24.47 | 24.60 | 4.57
#138 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 4.7-7.3 | 21.97 | 27.95 | 16.00 | 28.00 | 0.05
#139 | Mercer | 5-2 | 8.4-3.6 | 21.09 | 24.18 | 18.00 | 23.42 | -0.76
#140 | Idaho State | 4-2 | 7.7-4.3 | 20.23 | 23.55 | 16.90 | 25.54 | 1.99
#141 | Kent State | 2-4 | 4.2-7.8 | 20.22 | 21.61 | 18.84 | 21.66 | 0.05
#142 | East Tennessee State | 5-2 | 8.5-3.5 | 20.07 | 22.08 | 18.07 | 25.90 | 3.83
#143 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 4.0-8.0 | 19.73 | 20.56 | 18.91 | 21.80 | 1.24
#144 | Colgate | 4-2 | 8.6-3.4 | 19.45 | 19.51 | 19.39 | 17.83 | -1.68
#145 | Hawai'i | 1-5 | 3.5-8.5 | 19.16 | 26.65 | 11.67 | 23.52 | -3.13
#146 | Southern Illinois | 3-4 | 5.1-6.9 | 18.71 | 22.74 | 14.69 | 22.81 | 0.07
#147 | Abilene Christian | 3-4 | 5.9-6.1 | 18.41 | 22.07 | 14.75 | 21.88 | -0.18
#148 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 2.5-9.5 | 18.37 | 39.13 | -2.39 | 37.02 | -2.11
#149 | West Florida | 3-2 | 6.1-3.9 | 18.34 | 15.79 | 20.90 | 20.69 | 4.90
#150 | Yale | 3-1 | 7.2-2.8 | 17.46 | 20.49 | 14.43 | 25.30 | 4.81
#151 | UC Davis | 4-2 | 7.4-4.6 | 16.45 | 15.67 | 17.22 | 25.32 | 9.65
#152 | Washington State | 1-5 | 2.8-8.2 | 16.04 | 37.58 | -5.49 | 28.33 | -9.25
#153 | Monmouth | 4-2 | 8.3-3.7 | 15.71 | 11.37 | 20.05 | 23.69 | 12.32
#154 | Southeast Missouri State | 3-3 | 6.9-5.1 | 15.46 | 16.53 | 14.38 | 19.78 | 3.24
#155 | Western Carolina | 3-4 | 6.5-5.5 | 15.00 | 19.32 | 10.68 | 26.30 | 6.98
#156 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 4.9-7.1 | 14.93 | 32.27 | -2.41 | 26.56 | -5.72
#157 | North Alabama | 4-2 | 6.6-5.4 | 14.83 | 13.51 | 16.15 | 17.18 | 3.67
#158 | Rice | 1-5 | 2.6-9.4 | 14.77 | 29.18 | 0.36 | 25.10 | -4.09
#159 | Chattanooga | 4-3 | 6.4-5.6 | 14.53 | 17.55 | 11.52 | 14.14 | -3.40
#160 | Weber State | 4-3 | 6.1-5.9 | 14.49 | 14.88 | 14.11 | 27.29 | 12.41
#161 | Ball State | 1-5 | 3.4-8.6 | 14.49 | 21.59 | 7.39 | 25.08 | 3.48
#162 | Wofford | 4-3 | 6.3-5.7 | 14.45 | 14.46 | 14.44 | 19.85 | 5.39
#163 | Morgan State | 5-1 | 8.3-3.7 | 14.37 | 5.60 | 23.14 | 18.05 | 12.45
#164 | Cal Poly | 4-3 | 6.1-5.9 | 14.26 | 14.91 | 13.60 | 22.27 | 7.36
#165 | Stony Brook | 4-2 | 8.2-3.8 | 13.74 | 14.42 | 13.05 | 24.07 | 9.65
#166 | Eastern Washington | 2-5 | 4.5-7.5 | 13.06 | 16.90 | 9.23 | 25.13 | 8.23
#167 | Cornell | 2-2 | 5.2-4.8 | 12.54 | 14.71 | 10.36 | 21.58 | 6.86
#168 | Princeton | 3-1 | 6.2-3.8 | 12.37 | 15.22 | 9.51 | 15.14 | -0.09
#169 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 3.3-8.7 | 12.09 | 24.03 | 0.16 | 25.31 | 1.28
#170 | SE Louisiana | 3-3 | 6.2-5.8 | 10.51 | 13.21 | 7.81 | 19.33 | 6.12
#171 | Akron | 1-5 | 2.8-9.2 | 10.32 | 21.69 | -1.06 | 24.79 | 3.10
#172 | Southern Utah | 2-4 | 5.5-6.5 | 9.97 | 14.78 | 5.16 | 23.40 | 8.62
#173 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 3-3 | 6.3-5.7 | 9.96 | 15.00 | 4.92 | 15.92 | 0.92
#174 | Idaho | 1-5 | 4.0-8.0 | 9.58 | 17.24 | 1.91 | 26.09 | 8.85
#175 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 4.2-7.8 | 9.40 | 26.43 | -7.62 | 25.55 | -0.88
#176 | Butler | 5-1 | 9.6-2.4 | 9.40 | 8.47 | 10.34 | 20.08 | 11.60
#177 | Jackson State | 5-1 | 8.6-2.4 | 9.25 | 7.58 | 10.91 | 18.47 | 10.89
#178 | Bryant | 4-2 | 6.5-5.5 | 9.06 | 4.86 | 13.26 | 14.84 | 9.98
#179 | Richmond | 5-2 | 6.7-5.3 | 9.05 | 5.11 | 13.00 | 14.55 | 9.44
#180 | Southern Miss | 1-4 | 3.2-8.8 | 8.97 | 25.36 | -7.41 | 29.30 | 3.94
#181 | Gardner-Webb | 2-5 | 5.0-7.0 | 8.96 | 15.15 | 2.78 | 17.64 | 2.48
#182 | UAlbany | 3-3 | 6.4-5.6 | 8.82 | 11.86 | 5.77 | 13.68 | 1.82
#183 | Indiana State | 2-5 | 3.5-8.5 | 8.79 | 12.97 | 4.61 | 23.96 | 10.98
#184 | Rhode Island | 3-3 | 6.5-5.5 | 8.76 | 10.85 | 6.66 | 17.09 | 6.24
#185 | Charleston Southern | 3-3 | 5.7-6.3 | 8.75 | 11.17 | 6.33 | 16.08 | 4.91
#186 | Eastern Illinois | 2-4 | 4.9-7.1 | 8.59 | 8.08 | 9.09 | 16.68 | 8.60
#187 | South Carolina State | 5-2 | 8.3-3.7 | 8.54 | 8.84 | 8.25 | 20.69 | 11.85
#188 | Incarnate Word | 2-4 | 6.0-6.0 | 8.39 | 13.07 | 3.72 | 23.32 | 10.24
#189 | Central Arkansas | 2-4 | 4.6-7.4 | 8.08 | 11.09 | 5.06 | 16.32 | 5.23
#190 | McNeese | 2-4 | 5.7-6.3 | 8.00 | 12.95 | 3.06 | 20.77 | 7.82
#191 | Houston Christian | 3-3 | 5.3-6.7 | 7.89 | 4.63 | 11.15 | 12.04 | 7.41
#192 | Western Illinois | 3-3 | 6.1-5.9 | 7.61 | 13.55 | 1.67 | 19.42 | 5.86
#193 | Brown | 2-2 | 4.9-5.1 | 7.51 | 11.83 | 3.18 | 12.59 | 0.76
#194 | Alabama A&M | 5-2 | 8.9-3.1 | 7.45 | 10.88 | 4.02 | 19.73 | 8.85
#195 | Holy Cross | 2-4 | 5.6-6.4 | 7.31 | 8.76 | 5.85 | 18.12 | 9.36
#196 | Pennsylvania | 2-2 | 4.4-5.6 | 6.71 | 10.10 | 3.32 | 13.01 | 2.91
#197 | Portland State | 2-4 | 3.0-9.0 | 6.20 | 5.31 | 7.10 | 19.46 | 14.14
#198 | Northern Colorado | 2-5 | 3.6-8.4 | 6.02 | 13.18 | -1.15 | 17.48 | 4.29
#199 | Columbia | 3-1 | 4.5-5.5 | 5.73 | 3.30 | 8.16 | 16.77 | 13.48
#200 | East Texas A&M | 2-4 | 4.8-7.2 | 5.47 | 6.44 | 4.49 | 14.44 | 8.00
#201 | Furman | 2-5 | 5.0-7.0 | 5.34 | 11.01 | -0.33 | 14.11 | 3.10
#202 | UT Martin | 2-4 | 4.9-7.1 | 5.23 | 11.45 | -0.99 | 19.95 | 8.49
#203 | The Citadel | 2-4 | 3.9-8.1 | 5.22 | 5.61 | 4.84 | 17.15 | 11.55
#204 | Delaware State | 4-3 | 6.3-5.7 | 5.15 | 3.24 | 7.07 | 15.61 | 12.37
#205 | Central Connecticut | 2-3 | 6.2-4.8 | 5.04 | 10.46 | -0.38 | 22.49 | 12.02
#206 | Dartmouth | 1-3 | 4.1-5.9 | 4.75 | 11.92 | -2.42 | 14.81 | 2.89
#207 | St. Thomas (MN) | 5-2 | 8.2-3.8 | 4.57 | 3.99 | 5.15 | 20.71 | 16.72
#208 | Grambling | 4-2 | 6.8-4.2 | 3.97 | 2.23 | 5.72 | 21.56 | 19.34
#209 | Robert Morris | 3-3 | 6.5-5.5 | 3.64 | 4.30 | 2.99 | 14.59 | 10.29
#210 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 3-2 | 6.9-4.1 | 3.41 | 5.21 | 1.60 | 20.32 | 15.11
#211 | Fordham | 2-5 | 4.7-7.3 | 3.39 | 4.10 | 2.68 | 12.53 | 8.42
#212 | Villanova | 2-4 | 5.4-6.6 | 3.38 | 10.70 | -3.94 | 19.72 | 9.02
#213 | Eastern Kentucky | 2-4 | 3.3-8.7 | 3.05 | 7.55 | -1.45 | 14.52 | 6.97
#214 | Elon | 4-3 | 6.3-5.7 | 2.91 | 5.80 | 0.02 | 12.06 | 6.25
#215 | Lindenwood | 1-4 | 3.9-7.1 | 2.60 | 6.33 | -1.14 | 16.83 | 10.50
#216 | William & Mary | 3-4 | 5.3-6.7 | 2.48 | 0.58 | 4.39 | 14.99 | 14.41
#217 | Dayton | 4-1 | 8.1-2.9 | 2.36 | -0.39 | 5.12 | 13.38 | 13.77
#218 | Norfolk State | 4-3 | 6.4-5.6 | 2.25 | 2.13 | 2.36 | 17.43 | 15.30
#219 | Stonehill | 2-4 | 5.6-6.4 | 1.36 | 4.29 | -1.56 | 12.28 | 8.00
#220 | Long Island University | 2-5 | 4.8-7.2 | 0.94 | 4.33 | -2.45 | 11.37 | 7.04
#221 | Merrimack | 2-4 | 4.4-7.6 | 0.63 | 0.95 | 0.31 | 11.54 | 10.59
#222 | UTEP | 1-5 | 2.4-9.6 | 0.51 | 17.10 | -16.08 | 22.74 | 5.64
#223 | Howard | 2-4 | 5.2-6.8 | 0.30 | 2.88 | -2.28 | 14.19 | 11.30
#224 | Alcorn State | 4-3 | 6.4-5.6 | 0.29 | -3.35 | 3.92 | 20.27 | 23.62
#225 | Sacred Heart | 2-4 | 4.4-6.6 | -0.83 | 1.34 | -3.00 | 10.37 | 9.03
#226 | Alabama State | 3-3 | 6.8-5.2 | -1.02 | 5.53 | -7.58 | 13.07 | 7.53
#227 | New Hampshire | 2-5 | 3.9-8.1 | -1.09 | 1.48 | -3.67 | 15.12 | 13.64
#228 | Nicholls | 2-4 | 3.5-8.5 | -2.08 | -3.53 | -0.62 | 12.07 | 15.60
#229 | West Georgia | 1-5 | 2.1-9.9 | -2.87 | 2.07 | -7.82 | 13.97 | 11.90
#230 | Bethune-Cookman | 3-3 | 5.5-6.5 | -2.97 | -5.26 | -0.68 | 11.94 | 17.20
#231 | North Carolina A&T | 2-5 | 4.3-7.7 | -3.16 | -2.21 | -4.12 | 11.43 | 13.64
#232 | Florida A&M | 2-4 | 5.1-6.9 | -3.65 | -2.85 | -4.45 | 14.42 | 17.27
#233 | Southern | 3-4 | 5.2-6.8 | -3.78 | -7.13 | -0.43 | 9.57 | 16.70
#234 | San Diego | 2-4 | 4.8-6.2 | -3.83 | -4.65 | -3.01 | 14.01 | 18.67
#235 | Sacramento State | 1-5 |2.0-10.0 | -4.37 | 11.99 | -20.73 | 18.15 | 6.16
#236 | Tennessee State | 1-5 | 2.9-9.1 | -4.67 | 0.66 | -9.99 | 12.82 | 12.17
#237 | North Carolina Central | 2-5 | 4.0-8.0 | -4.70 | 1.08 | -10.48 | 14.04 | 12.96
#238 | Presbyterian | 3-3 | 5.6-5.4 | -4.87 | -8.46 | -1.28 | 11.24 | 19.70
#239 | Valparaiso | 3-3 | 5.6-5.4 | -5.23 | -4.69 | -5.76 | 7.08 | 11.77
#240 | Marist | 3-3 | 6.6-5.4 | -5.26 | -1.94 | -8.58 | 8.74 | 10.68
#241 | Prairie View A&M | 2-5 | 4.3-7.7 | -5.46 | 3.79 | -14.71 | 12.55 | 8.76
#242 | Mercyhurst | 1-5 | 3.4-8.6 | -5.51 | -3.82 | -7.19 | 13.59 | 17.41
#243 | Duquesne | 1-4 | 3.8-7.2 | -5.59 | -1.38 | -9.80 | 12.25 | 13.63
#244 | Lafayette | 1-4 | 2.9-8.1 | -6.33 | 1.74 | -14.40 | 17.49 | 15.75
#245 | Maine | 1-5 | 2.6-8.4 | -6.72 | -0.30 | -13.15 | 11.94 | 12.24
#246 | Murray State | 1-5 |1.2-10.8 | -7.55 | -2.71 | -12.38 | 13.37 | 16.08
#247 | Georgetown | 1-4 | 2.3-7.7 | -7.97 | -0.93 | -15.01 | 9.99 | 10.92
#248 | Drake | 2-4 | 4.6-6.4 | -8.24 | -3.88 | -12.59 | 12.11 | 16.00
#249 | New Haven | 1-5 | 3.3-8.7 | -8.98 | -3.40 | -14.55 | 9.32 | 12.72
#250 | Samford | 1-5 | 2.3-9.7 | -9.03 | 6.42 | -24.47 | 14.07 | 7.65
#251 | Mississippi Valley State | 3-4 | 3.9-8.1 | -10.39 | -16.67 | -4.12 | 6.85 | 23.52
#252 | Wagner | 1-5 | 2.5-9.5 | -10.94 | -10.21 | -11.67 | 8.69 | 18.91
#253 | Bucknell | 1-5 | 2.4-9.6 | -12.06 | -4.13 | -20.00 | 6.89 | 11.02
#254 | Hampton | 1-5 |1.7-10.3 | -14.40 | -14.42 | -14.38 | 4.87 | 19.29
#255 | Chicago State | 1-5 | 3.2-7.8 | -15.57 | -15.54 | -15.60 | 7.35 | 22.89
#256 | Texas Southern | 1-5 | 2.2-8.8 | -18.00 | -12.06 | -23.95 | 12.07 | 24.12
#257 | Stetson | 1-5 | 2.4-9.6 | -21.37 | -26.07 | -16.68 | 2.72 | 28.79
#258 | Davidson | 2-5 | 3.3-8.7 | -23.16 | -28.05 | -18.27 | 2.23 | 30.28
#259 | Morehead State | 1-5 | 2.3-9.7 | -23.26 | -28.01 | -18.50 | 2.66 | 30.67
#260 | Northern Illinois | 0-5 | 2.5-9.5 | -37.57 | 23.86 | -99.00 | 22.57 | -1.28
#261 | UL Monroe | 0-5 |1.2-10.8 | -41.84 | 15.32 | -99.00 | 24.12 | 8.79
#262 | Charlotte | 0-6 |0.5-11.5 | -42.54 | 13.92 | -99.00 | 19.75 | 5.82
#263 | Towson | 0-7 | 2.6-9.4 | -46.21 | 6.58 | -99.00 | 17.80 | 11.21
#264 | Jacksonville | 0-0 | 0.0-0.0 | -47.64 | 3.72 | -99.00 | 14.80 | 11.08
#265 | Utah Tech | 0-7 |0.6-11.4 | -49.96 | -0.92 | -99.00 | 13.10 | 14.02
#266 | Northwestern State | 0-6 |0.6-11.4 | -57.74 | -16.49 | -99.00 | 8.71 | 25.20
#267 | VMI | 0-6 |0.2-11.8 | -59.65 | -20.29 | -99.00 | 2.26 | 22.55

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs Added the best win anyone has this year. The predictive side kept them at 4 as it doesn't tend to overreact to individual games, but the resume side has them over 8 points clear of any other team now
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish The new #1 on the predictive side now that Bama has lost their spot, but their resume is too weak for them to be #1 overall
3 Alabama Crimson Tide The loss to UGA doesn't hurt that much on either the predictive or resume sides, so they hold on to a high ranking
4 Indiana Hoosiers Alongside UGA, ND, and JMU, one of only four teams that my model explicitly predicts to reach 11-1
5 Miami Hurricanes Wake Forest looking good helps them out a lot, otherwise their resume wouldn't be any good
6 Ohio State Buckeyes Texas falling some hurts their resume a bit, but that's still not a bad loss at all
7 UCLA Bruins Continuing to skyrocket in the rankings, they're probably still being held back by last year's ranks- they came into the year as my #80 predictive. They're now #15 on that side but #2 in my resume ranking.
8 Texas Longhorns The model was never that low on Oklahoma, they lost close, and they still have that win over OSU
9 Utah Utes Resume is the weakest of the undefeated power conference teams, but the predictive side is convinced they're just plain good (#7)
10 Texas Tech Red Raiders Similar to Utah, but with a somewhat stronger resume and weaker power
11 Kentucky Wildcats Another example of a good loss not hurting much, the resume model has them at #6 and the strongest resume with a loss
12 Wake Forest Demon Deacons Same as above, a close loss to Miami doesn't hurt much
13 BYU Cougars The lowest power of the undefeated teams at #20, but undefeated is undefeated so the resume isn't bad
14 Iowa Hawkeyes Actually surprised they're this low, but the teams they beat have tended to keep falling after their game
15 Ole Miss Rebels Worth noting Louisville is still #23 on the predictive side, and that seems to be helping to prop up the SEC's mid cluster
16 Mississippi State Bulldogs I don't encode head-to-head as a tiebreaker, so MSST and MIZ being right next to each other in the correct order was coincidental
17 Missouri Tigers I think the last couple weeks have been cases where Missouri beat their opponents badly enough that the predictive model thinks they aren't any good anymore, so the resume model doesn't value those wins as much as it doesn't account for margin of victory... running up the score can never hurt the predictive ranking, but can potentially hurt the resume ranking. Maybe a bug, but I'm not sure how to deal with it.
18 Houston Cougars The close loss to TTU still looks pretty good, and their win over Oregon State also looks better over time
19 Oregon Ducks My top 2-loss team, the predictive model still has them at #9
20 LSU Tigers Just like Oregon, and the model puts them one spot below UO on power and one above UO on resume
21 Tennessee Volunteers Resume ranking will pretty much move however Texas's predictive ranking moves, so they fell a little bit
22 USC Trojans Whoever won USC-PSU was going to end up ranked (PSU was predictive 24, USC 26), so USC jumps in
23 Wisconsin Badgers Model thinks ND is good enough that that loss doesn't really hurt, so 4-1 is enough to be ranked
24 Oklahoma Sooners Beating the team that the model had as its combined #1 is enough to get a 2-loss team to jump in (even if they are still behind two other 2-loss teams). In fact @Michigan and Oregon@OKST are now pretty similar losses from the model's perspective
25 Northwestern Wildcats Should've been ranked for a while now in my opinion, if your only loss is by 1 score at the defending national champion you can't be that bad. Would probably be higher if Penn State hadn't lost. I similarly feel like Nebraska should be ranked (Nebraska is predictive #14) but other than IU they really haven't played anyone, so they fall at #26.

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