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CaptainScuttlebottom Ballot for 2023 Preseason

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Aug. 22, 2023, 12:12 a.m.

Overall Rationale: This poll is based on a very simple Elo model, tweaked to be unusually sensitive to recent outcomes and totally insensitive to margin of victory. I take the previous years' game results, regular and postseason, and I calculate continuous Elo scores for each game outcome in the dataset, with no gaps between seasons. This means that the preseason rankings will just be a repeat of the final Elo scores from the previous season, with no adjustments. Currently, I'm using only 3 previous years' worth of data to establish a baseline, because I want this poll to have a short memory, and a k-factor of 60 (substantially higher than most) to make it more hyper-reactive to recent outcomes. It heavily punishes losing to low-ranked teams, heavily rewards winning against high-ranked teams, and it doesn't care how you big your wins or losses were (it's also sensitive to SOS as a result). My goal, generally speaking, was to try to make a poll as prone to hyperbole and overreaction (but still within reason) as r/CFB. Caveats: 1) It will probably produce some weird results -- the baseline is from the previous three years, so this is especially true for teams that suddenly got much better or worse in the offseason, like USC or FSU last year, or who hit a hot streak to end last year like most of numbers 18-25. The high k-factor should hopefully mean that they'll be in the top-10 mix where they probably deserve relatively quickly if they keep winning, though. 2) This is my first time doing this kinda thing and I coded it myself, so there might be bugs. 3) I might tweak it as the season goes on. Code: https://github.com/andrewjbe/sportsBs/blob/main/inst/scripts/cfb-elo-rankings.R

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