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throwaway_6786 Ballot for 2023 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 21, 2023, 11:05 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Slightly modifying my final poll from last year to account for major changes and/or uncertainties with the teams.

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs Defending national champions always get preseason #1 the next year, in my opinion. Two-time defending national champions most certainly get preseason #1 the next year.
2 Michigan Wolverines The Wolverines are returning most of their core and were easily a top-3 team last year. They proved that 2021 was no fluke and there's not as many question marks for Michigan as the teams below them.
3 Ohio State Buckeyes A few major question marks, but they're a model of consistency and Ryan Day has shown that he can run an offense with the best of them. I'm willing to give the Buckeyes the benefit of the doubt for now, but they could just as easily be #4 or #5. We'll see how McCord, the O-line, and the secondary shake out.
4 Alabama Crimson Tide Speaking of models of consistency, Nick Saban says hello. It will be interesting to see how Alabama adjusts to (probably) not having an uber-talented QB after seven years of Hurts, Tua, Jones, and Young, but something tells me that Saban can figure it out and keep Alabama towards the top.
5 TCU Horned Frogs I realize they lost Max Duggan and many other major contributors from last year's #2 squad, but I'm not ready to drop them too far before any games are played. TCU has had a handful of fantastic seasons over the last 10-15 years, and I think that they deserve a little respect in these rankings for getting to the National Championship Game, something only 6 other teams have done in the CFP era. Maybe they won't repeat what they did last year, but the coaching staff under Sonny Dykes is still mostly intact and they still have the talent to make another run.
6 Washington Huskies I might seem a little bullish on Washington, but they were easily a top 10 team last year and they bring back Penix Jr., who has only gotten better and better with each passing season. The Huskies have also had CFP-era success despite COVID year and the Jimmy Lake fiasco, which gives me confidence in them to continue that path of success in 2023 under the tutelage of Kalen DeBoer.
7 Penn State Nittany Lions The Lions are #7, exactly where I had them at the end of 2022. I'll be honest, #7-#11 on this list are fairly interchangeable, but Penn State looks like they'll have a rock-solid defense, a great O-line (it feels so good to say that and mean it), and the Singleton/Allen duo at RB. Two reasons they're not higher: They haven't found ways to break through against OSU/Michigan and Allar + the WR room are unknown quantities.
8 Clemson Tigers They've been ACC champs in 7 of the last 8 seasons, so it's hard to leave them out of the top 10. Dabo Swinney is still there, the defense is still strong, and Cade Klubnik showed me some flashes of solid QB play in limited time. It still remains to be seen if the Tigers can get back to the heights of 2015-2020 and 6 straight CFP appearances, but certainly they deserve some love for a solid 2022 season (but only in the preseason poll).
9 USC Trojans USC beat every team they played not named Utah going into selection Sunday last year. The Trojans still have Lincoln Riley running a lethal offense with ultradynamic QB Caleb Williams leading the charge. The only reason they're not higher is that their defense is still a major problem for them until they can prove otherwise.
10 Florida State Seminoles FSU scored a thrilling win over LSU last year, but fell flat in their other opportunities to really shine against great opponents. Still, Mike Norvell has the Seminoles trending in the right direction, so I'm willing to put them at #10 for now. It'll work itself out one way or another because they're going to play LSU right off the bat.
11 LSU Tigers LSU is out for revenge on FSU after that blocked XP last year, but the Tigers did beat Bama and Ole Miss to win the SEC West and go to the SEC Championship game. Brian Kelly returns, as well as Jaden Daniels, Harold Perkins, and several other talented players. This might seem a little low for LSU, but they were robbed of any meaningful bowl game impact when Purdue basically threw their 2nd-string team in for the Outback Bowl (or whatever it's called these days) and the TA&M loss was pretty stark considering how bad the Aggies were last year. Still, if LSU gets their revenge on FSU and keeps winning, they'll rise up on my ballot quickly.
12 Tennessee Volunteers This might be a little harsh towards Tennessee, but losing Hooker & Hyatt + bad defensive performances + not having too much sustained success in recent years leaves me to drop Tennessee quite a bit from their 2022 finish at #5. We'll see how the Vols handle the pressure of following up a great season, but I have confidence that Josh Heupel can keep the offense rolling with Milton, Wright, Small, White, McCoy, and a solid O-line. The main reason I dropped them 7 spots is their defense, so if the Vols win games and look better on defense, they'll be back in the top 10 before you can say "Rocky Top".
13 Tulane Green Wave This team 100% deserves better than the #24 ranking that the AP gave them. I know Tyjae Spears is in the NFL now, but the Green Wave still have plenty of talent to go around and unless they start losing games, they don't deserve to be dropped too far (especially since they won a NY6 bowl against the Heisman winner). I know it's easy to just toss the G5 teams a bone in the 20s and forget about them otherwise, but there are some good G5 teams, and based on 2022 results, Tulane is the best of them going into this season.
14 Utah Utes Honestly, I'm not really sure where to put the Utes after another Pac-12 championship and another tough Rose Bowl loss. Kyle Whittingham has kept this team right in the thick of a conference loaded with talent, but no NY6 bowl wins since joining the Pac-12 makes me wonder if they're a little overrated. It will sort itself out as the season goes on, but Utah still looks like a tough team for anyone to beat, so they stay in the top 15 for now.
15 Oregon Ducks Oregon had a nice season all things considered, although I'm sure they were disappointed that they missed out on the Pac-12 championship due to a wonky 3-way tiebreaker after blowing it in the Civil War. They finished #15 in my final poll last year, and I don't see much of a reason to move them up or down. The main question I have with Oregon is their defense (in the 3 games the Ducks lost last season, the defense gave up 49, 37, and 38 points).
16 Kansas State Wildcats It was a great Big 12 championship win, but Alabama had their way with them in the Sugar Bowl, so I had K-State at #13 to finish last year. Losing Deuce Vaughn will hurt, but Will Howard appears to be a solid QB and their defense is supposedly better than last year, which bodes well for the Wildcats. K-State slipped a few spots due to inconsistency across the last 10 years or so, but they're still the reigning Big 12 champs, so they'll stick at #16 to start.
17 Oregon State Beavers The big question that looms over this season (on the field, anyway) is simply this: Is DJ Uiagalelei the answer at QB? Oregon State has so many great pieces to their team, and I can appreciate a run-first offense that grinds defenses down and controls the clock. I think the Beavers have a lot of promise, but it remains to be seen if last year was a one-shot deal or if they can build off of 2022 to reach greater heights.
18 Texas Longhorns I'm not ready to shoot this team up to #11 the way that the AP did. They went 8-5 last year, and while they did deal with injuries and some terrible late-game luck, they won't have their Doak Walker RB Bijan Robinson anymore and RBs like him don't grow on trees. I think that Steve Sarkisian will have this team ready and rearing to go and I've heard lots of good things about Quinn Ewers this offseason, but until I see it on the field, I'm not going to buy in too much.
19 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2022 had an awful start (and an incomprehensible loss to Stanford), but Marcus Freeman righted the ship and the Irish finished strong (they were #18 in my final poll). I have them at #19 because they're bringing in a new QB in Sam Hartman and while I'm confident in the ND defense, the offense leaves something to be desired (losing Michael Mayer to the NFL is a main cause of this). I'm wary of overranking ND due to their prestige, but they have been solid over the Kelly/Freeman era, so we'll see how they start this time around.
20 Troy Trojans For those of you wondering why Troy is on this ballot at all, I'll remind you that they were a crazy Hail Mary against App State (aka the embodiment of chaos) away from 12-1 Sun Belt Champions with a likely berth over Tulane for the Cotton Bowl. Would they have beaten USC as Tulane did? Who knows. What I do know is that Troy had a great season last year and they didn't lose a ton of their talent, so they start right on the outer edge of the top 20. We'll see if they can recreate their 2022 success.
21 Texas Tech Red Raiders I'm definitely a little high on TTU, but they did beat OUT last year (not as impressive as it usually is, but still) and soundly defeated Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl, so they deserve some credit. They've had, by all accounts, a great offseason, improving their roster and keeping most of the talent from last year's squad. The Red Raiders look to be a solid team, and we'll see if they live up to the expectations that come with it.
22 UTSA Roadrunners The Roadrunners had a disappointing finish in a tough Cure bowl loss vs. Troy, but they took the C-USA title game over North Texas and at one point had a 10-game winning streak. UTSA has been consistently good over the last couple of seasons, which gives me just enough confidence to keep them in the top 25. Obviously, they'll have to keep winning to stick around, but Jeff Traylor has turned this team into a tough-to-beat bunch, so for now, MEEP MEEP!
23 North Carolina Tar Heels The main reason the Tar Heels are in the top 25 is Drake Maye. Love him or hate him, the kid oozes talent. Still, one player, no matter how good he is, can carry a team entirely by himself to the upper echelon of college football. Until the rest of the UNC team can rise up and show that they can take on Clemson/FSU, I'm not ready to put them any higher than this for a preseason poll. Beating South Carolina in Columbia would be a nice start. As an aside, watch for Power Echols and Cedric Gray this year, they should be a powerful LB duo once again.
24 South Carolina Gamecocks What a rollercoaster of a 2022 season for the Gamecocks. I wasn't sure what to do with them by the end of the regular season last year, and I'm still not so sure what to do with them now. Shane Beamer is still in town, as is Spencer Rattler, Antwane Wells Jr., Nick Emmanwori, and many more, so the consistency should be there. Now it's just a matter of sussing out if this South Carolina team is really as good as they were at the end of 2022, or if they just caught lightning in a bottle.
25 UCLA Bruins I'll be honest, I flipped between UCLA, Pitt, Ole Miss, Miss. State, and Boise State for about 20 minutes trying to figure out who deserved #25 the most, and finally I got tired of spending so much time on a preseason poll and just picked UCLA because Chip Kelly can run an offense pretty effectively (at the college level) year after year with QB after QB. UCLA had a solid 2022 in a tough Pac-12 conference, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now, but the defense must improve if they're going to get to the top 10 this season.

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