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FourteenClocks Ballot for 2023 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 21, 2023, 5:47 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Yeah, this is largely based on last year, with some consideration for power ratings and new or missing pieces. I actually do have faith in every team listed here (including TCU, who are just as capable of surprising this year as they did last year), but places will start moving fast when those first couple weeks' worth of games are played. Preseason speculation is all fine and good, and power ratings have value, but I am not putting 5-7 A&M or 6-6 OU on this poll, e.g., until I see them actually make good on their promise. Jimbo could get it right this season, or he could throw all his printer paper out on the sideline and storm out on a stolen motorcycle after his eighth televised argument with Petrino. That's the danger and the seduction of these things. SDSU is on here as a nod to their FCS championship win, but I'll take them off after week 1, since there's really no way to compare them to the FBS roll call.

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs The big dawg until proven otherwise
2 Ohio State Buckeyes The only team to almost clip the big dawg last year (yeah, Mizzou was scary, but Georgia was one great time-out away from actually losing to OSU) #2-4 are the only teams I trust to undress UGA in the CFP setting.
3 Michigan Wolverines Their loss to TCU was probably the biggest, most consequential upset of last year. Much like UGA, their last two years of actually winning the right games has correctly placed them as a powerhouse, and proof that the alumnus-as-coach can bring a fanbase together (...minus two or three weeks of NFL courtship per year) AND win. These guys have all the tools to keep it up. Forget Georgia three-peating, the fightin' Harbaughs pulling a three-peat on that team down south would be the real stunner.
4 Alabama Crimson Tide Never, ever count them out. They were four points away from post-season glory and they proved it by beating the tar out of Kansas State. Yes they have questions, and yes they have loseable games, but the QB has Figured Itself Out plenty a time under Saban and done business as usual. Brady had to wait a decade to put on his fourth ring; this dynasty is still very real.
5 TCU Horned Frogs Poor Texas Christians; they had the world on their side until they got fleeced in California, which is not new to Sonny Dykes. But... this was the most improbably bulletproof champion (well, almost) that the Big 12 has had in some time. I wouldn't count on the magic being out until they start looking ordinary--and they might, if Brisket Brother Garrett Riley was the real magician, but we don't know that yet! And they still have the QB they were regularly scheduled to have last year. So here they are.
6 Tennessee Volunteers What a year these guys had. They had a couple of embarrassing outings--as does anybody who beats Saban in the regular season, it seems, as an Ole Miss fan I am quite aware of the curse that ties itself to that achievement--but boy, Heupel might be their answer. Getting to host Georgia is a huge story, and they could be perfect heading into that matchup. Put on your overalls--this team is fun again.
7 Washington Huskies In speaking of answers and bouncebacks, this was a team with a quick turnaround, including a notable victory over the team below. They had a couple of baffling losses, but I think many teams will have Penix envy this fall. Maybe even Lincoln Riley! (Maybe.)
8 Oregon Ducks Dan Lanning did a stellar job last year keeping this team in the conversation after the humiliating, but understandable, opening flop against Georgia. Along with being well-recruited, the Ducks are focused, they're having fun, and they are a dark horse for the College Football Playoff, especially if they make an example of the Golden Boy (USC) in November. They lost a couple of major rivalries last year, but those were close. These guys have a great chance of righting their wrongs, and momentum is on their side. And no UGA on the regular schedule.
9 Penn State Nittany Lions This has to be the year, right? James Franklin now finds himself in the same spot as James Harbaugh did until *very* recently--capable of winning all the games except for the big ones. There's enough Drew Allar belief to go around, and with some defensive stars and the Miami coach who isn't currently embarrassing himself, these guys have expectations to beat Ohio State AND Michigan. I'd like to see it.
10 Tulane Green Wave From 2-10 to 12-2, including a startlingly quick comeback win over the Golden Boy, the argument could be made that no fanbase had a more satisfying season than the New Orleans rich kids. With many of their successful colleagues gone, these guys have to be the ass-whoopingly dominant favorite to claim the AAC again. They could also call their shot against the lone P5 opponent on their schedule, my Ole Miss Rebels (not ranked, by me)--that early matchup at home is, unfortunately, the upset I'm most expecting in September. That would garner some attention; not enough for the Playoff committee to care, but screw them. I fully expect to see Willie Fritz in the NY6 again.
11 USC Trojans How the Grinch Stole Playoff. Lincoln Riley's pedigree as a head coach is indisputable, at least until New Year's Eve, but last year's downfall at the big moment was hilariously predictable. Many pieces remain in place, including the Heisman House tenant, to improve upon what was (very impressively) cobbled together last year. This will be their last year as THE big name in their conference, so it's time to put up or get a new defensive coordinator--by the name of Horton, Lorax, or One Chip Two Chip Red Chip Blue Chip.
12 LSU Tigers Brian Kelly pointedly showed off the 'WIN!' banner after upsetting my Rebels last year; he reminded us that's exactly what he does. LSU had its share of goofy moments last year, but by and large he proved that his move to Baton Rouge was the right call. This is a scary team that can get scarier--between smiling Jayden Daniels and defensive standout Harold Perkins, can Kelly get the rest of the team to win consistently, at a school that seems to include a national championship in each new hire contract?
13 Clemson Tigers 'Two time national championship-winner coach gets best coordinator hire of 2023' is a headline that should scream POWERHOUSE, but little ol' Clemson still has its doubters. And, granted, they have shown their humanity since getting pantsed in their last CFP appearance, but if the routine ACC champions make a couple of whoopsies that keep them out of the national conversation, and they seem to have learned some lessons from that, who's to say that they can't have a fortuitous (read: undefeated) season and get invited back to the dance?
14 Florida State Seminoles Florida State may have something to say, then. A team that has truly been mucking it up since their famous Jameis magic wore off, this was my favorite team to watch in 2022. What started as a lucky season of last-second victories became the realization that, hey, there's a contender here. And most of those guys haven't gone anywhere. They NEED to beat Clemson in order to be seen as any more than second-best in their conference, and probably defeat LSU again to grab the national interest, but this is possibly the most storybook team south of Pennsylvania in 2023.
15 Kansas State Wildcats I had a feeling that the captain of the biggest FCS dynasty would have no trouble seeing success in the Big 12. K-State, OU's slenderman, maintains a folksy charm as the conference's cool team, and getting a piece of TCU before their CFP appearance left no doubt that they will always be a big player once 12 becomes... 16, is that the current count?
16 Oregon State Beavers The most underrated team in the Power Five made a name for themselves last year, with the comeback victory against Oregon and what could have been a victory over USC if not for that pesky turnover luck. Jonathan Smith, much like Lanning, has momentum on his side, and with the rare splash transfer of DJU, as well as the hearts of many who mourn the Pac-12, a conference berth from the Beavers would be the real feel-good story of the fall.
17 Troy Trojans I get the vapors thinking of how lame Chip Lindsey was as a coach, so for Sumrall to come in and torch the Sun Belt (mostly, aside from one particular Hail Mary) is as good as it gets. The conference champs have a real chance to repeat, not to mention show out at K-State (and by that I mean keep it respectably close lol).
18 Utah Utes The boogeyman of the Pac-12. The fact that Cam will be slow to Rising (I'll see myself out) is a concern, but talk about a coach with consistency. I believe in these guys. We'll find out quick--Florida and Baylor back-to-back are probably the sweatiest opening two weeks I can think of.
19 UCLA Bruins Chip really saved his skin last year, huh?
20 UTSA Roadrunners Meep meep
21 South Carolina Gamecocks We started shouting out "BEAMERBALL" around my house. A nice program with uber-upset potential has been assembled in fast fashion. Appreciate that Shane started shutting mouths in his first season, and with some encouragement I think Rattler can keep improving. Losing their OC was apparently an upgrade, so good for them. I think 9-3 is on the table, though knowing this team, that's gonna come with a silly loss and a colossal upset.
22 Pittsburgh Panthers Always the wild card. Though they ended quite nicely with the UCLA upset, I'll admit that they might have come up less than the sum of their parts, being that their schedule was not exactly hard last year. But newsflash, this one won't be either (did you know they play Cincy on the freaking CW?), and the Jurkovec transfer is promising, if this offense is allowed to have fun. Whip out the Heinz and catch up on this team.
23 Texas Longhorns Is there any other team with more pressure than Texas having to go into Bryant-Denny and doing what they Quoldinn't last year? (Maybe their guy won't get late-hit this time.) And--God forbid--being *back*? Ranking this UT seems routine, no matter what their record reflects, but in 2022 this team was some bad luck away from a far more attractive W-L look. But Seven-Win Sark did get to vanquish that title--he won eight games, thank you very much. Hyping Texas has felt like a hopeless effort for some time, but they have the pieces. Don't they always, though?
24 Mississippi State Bulldogs I find that most pundits are... not... sure what to do with this team after the tragedy that befell them in December. But here's what I know: a vast majority of their starters are returners, the new and very young head coach has already assembled a defense that was beginning to truly complement the famous air raid (and was maybe more consistent), and they are still coming off a 9-4 record. It's unfair that these guys aren't ranked over the Rebs, and I think if Leach were still with us, they would be. And, maybe this is something folks don't want to admit, but there were signs that Leach's culture was not all sunshine and rainbows--from the post-bowl fight in 2020, to the funny-but-maybe-unfair comments from him about walk-on kickers and no hands. I don't anticipate that Arnett will be that at all. This team is Mississippi Made and proud of it. Will Rogers could be their Bo Wallace. Expect some surprises.
25 South Dakota State Jackrabbits Congrats to the FCS champs! According to the Sagarin ratings, these guys could handle a large swath of FBS teams, including some Power 5s. It's too bad that their division-exclusive schedule will keep us from finding that out.

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