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crownebeach Ballot for 2023 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 22, 2023, 9:52 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Take team talent, returning production, then manually adjust them based on my subjective sense of how much I think they'll live up to the numbers. I consider quality of head coach and coordinators heavily. Overperformance of talent rankings is a repeatable skill. I don't give a conference bump or conference penalty.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes The nice thing about the Buckeyes is that their defense is 20th in returning production. When you have a coach with a pronounced tendency toward one side of the ball, having all your youth be on that side is a good thing because it means you're not likely to have a lot of growing pains.
2 Georgia Bulldogs I think everyone should have Ohio State and Georgia 1 and 2, in whichever order. They are in a recruiting tier with only Alabama, and they have more stability than Bama at the moment.
3 Florida State Seminoles This is a huge bet on Jordan Travis. But he is a top-five Heisman betting favorite, they lead the nation in returning production, and Mike Norvell coaches the best special teams in the country going back to his early days at Memphis. Lots of upside and downside here.
4 Michigan Wolverines I still have doubts about their passing game, but they're going to be very, very good. National championship caliber.
5 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama will win ten games with the potential for more. I don't think that Nick Saban is past it by any stretch. They could win it all. But at +450, they're overpriced.
6 Washington Huskies Another upside pick. I have some concerns about the defense, but they have balanced returning production on both sides of the ball. Washington returns a lot (15th in the major conferences, 26th overall) and they have an outstanding coach. A national championship is probably out of reach, but never say never.
7 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State is going to be a very familiar sight this year -- resolute defense, question marks and inexperience on offense. This is not going to be a team that wins a title or fights into the playoff, but that has more to do with who's ahead of them than their own merits. I like James Franklin and this team will hit hard.
8 LSU Tigers I am a Jayden Daniels truther, and I think Brian Kelly is an underappreciated head coach. I am deeply concerned about the defense, which is not great and very thin. I don't think LSU has national championship upside, but they could be this year's Tennessee, throwing a few big upsets but folding in some games that they should win.
9 Utah Utes Utah, like Washington, has a decent returning production numbers spread across both sides of the ball. But they have less roster talent than Washington and they're going to be more reliant on two key players, Rising and Kuithe, than the other top teams in the Pac-12. One x-factor is Andy Ludwig, who has completely transformed his image since returning to Utah. I would grade him as the best coordinator in the Pac-12 today. Another is their strength in the trenches; they've always had Polynesian recruiting clout on the defensive line, but this is one of the most talented OLs they've ever had as well. Playoff ceiling, probably not deep enough to win it all.
10 Tennessee Volunteers Tennessee is not going to be bad by any stretch. But last year, the Vols would probably have been encouraged by a 9-4 season. This year 9-4 will feel very disappointing.
11 USC Trojans I don't think Alex Grinch is a bad defensive coordinator. He transformed a bad Washington State defense into an above average one, and some of the things he does on defense (exaggerated line shifts, undersized interior linemen built for speed) have become punchlines only because they worked so well that teams had to gameplan around neutralizing them. But he's not transformative anymore, and I think that Lincoln Riley philosophically just does not like defense or support his defensive staff. It's like the reverse of what late-stage Dantonio was at Michigan State; he doesn't want to give a defense any clues on how to stop his own offense, or something. Here's my hot take: Lincoln Riley will never win a national championship.
12 Clemson Tigers I'm kinda punting on Clemson. Dabo Swinney is still a great coach and they're finally recruiting at a level we thought they would. And I don't think that Cade is overrated or fraudulent or any of those other internet words. But they don't have much of an identity at the moment; I don't know where their strong and weak units are.
13 Oregon State Beavers Another upside bet on Jonathan Smith being a very good football coach. I'm really worried about the defense, which has never been a strength and graduated a lot of production. But this should still be a dangerous football team with an outside shot at a conference championship.
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame returns a ton of production and has national title roster talent. These guys could easily get to the playoff. What holds me back is the offensive line -- a unit that was always a strength under Brian Kelly and has plenty of talent looked clueless and poorly coached last year. They got pushed around by Stanford, for heaven's sake. Answer those questions, and ND could be a 2024 title sleeper.
15 Texas Tech Red Raiders An experienced if unspectacular quarterback, a coach who maximizes his chances on the margins, modest returning production -- I was high on them last year because of their secondary, which has taken some attrition, but the advanced metrics like them and I do too.
16 Kansas State Wildcats It will be hard to top last year's Big 12 championship. But I'm not worried about Klieman's ability to retool on defense or do more with less. 16 is their ceiling, not their floor, but they're going to be a tough out.
17 UCF Knights I love and respect Gus Malzahn, and I think people will be extremely surprised how well they compete in the Big 12 this season. I think they'll beat Oklahoma in Norman, and I'm gonna laugh really hard when it happens. I'm anxious about the turnover in the coordinator staff, but they've had major conference roster talent for years already.
18 Oregon Ducks This is Oregon's floor, not their ceiling. Bo Nix, for me, is not a national championship quarterback. When you're rooting against him he will do something amazing that makes you think he could be special, and when you start to finally root for him he will break your back. But he is a difficult man to defend, and only Utah and Oregon State had defenses capable of doing it consistently a year ago.
19 Pittsburgh Panthers I am a longtime Pitt Respecter, to the point that at least once before I have been the only r/cfb poll voter to rank them. Pat Narduzzi's system is tried and tested on defense, but they lost a lot of guys off last year's team. Offense is probably going to be downright bad. Iowa East, anyone?
20 TCU Horned Frogs Like Kansas State, last year is gonna be hard to top, but they'll score points in abundance (all Arizona fans love Sonny Dykes) and they're one of the most talented teams in the conference. 9-3? Ish?
21 Texas Longhorns It's trendy to make fun of ranking Texas, but they're going to be a top-25 team. They just are. What's funny is that they're going to underperform their team talent by about 10-20 spots no matter what they do or who coaches them, but don't get carried away -- they're not bad, they're just not the Texas of old.
22 Tulane Green Wave Mediocre returning production numbers, on an already uninspiring defense. The Wave could win the league, but it's a much reduced league. They could have similar numbers and record to a season ago, but with a worse underlying performance and squad.
23 Minnesota Golden Gophers The bottom of the top 25 is a madhouse. I'm taking Minnesota because they have a safe, reliable bowl floor and wouldn't need a lot to go right to be a division contender.
24 Wyoming Cowboys Wyoming is second in the nation in returning defensive production. A lot of teams are going to come to Laramie and leave town feeling roughed up. In a Mountain West that has steadily declined, Wyoming has been an island of stability (to their fans' general disappointment - they've missed a lot of chances). This could be the year that they overtake a Boise State team that looks in crisis to me.
25 Florida Gators Billy Napier is a good football coach and if you think they'll be as bad in the future as they were down the stretch last year, you're wishcasting. They brought in a tremendous recruiting class and although they've lost a lot of last year's key contributors, I believe they have a better second string; depth was their real weakness in 2022.

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