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woakley Ballot for 2023 Preseason

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Aug. 15, 2023, 10:31 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Really tried to do something a little different this year because I feel like preseason polls are so hard if you're not following all of the teams incredibly closely. It's much easier to get a sense of where teams are and how they'll do once the season starts So what I did this year is tried to create a ranking based on recruiting and prior year performance. I got the data from collegefootballdata.com and ESPN and messed around with the weighting until I got a result that made sense to me. This isn't something i'll base my polls off of going forward, but thought it would be fun to do it week one and see how it looks when I look back in a few weeks. After a week or two of games i'll move back to my human poll Factors used Recruiting Factor - Weighted 40% of total, meant to be a factor showing overall roster talent (didn't account for transfers out/early leavers for the draft because I have no clue how to do that) Factors within recruiting - 24/7 Composite total - 75% of Recruiting Total - Pulled the composite numbers for 2023 (20%), 2022 (32.5%), 2021 (30%), and 2020 (17.5%). I weighted the importance of recruiting years based on how I feel that each year would impact the current year - 24/7 Rankings - 25% of Recruiting Total - Same as above, just the rankings instead of Composite Poll Factor - Weighted 25% of total - Meant to be a factor bringing in prior year performance and valuing those who had a good year last year - Final AP Poll - 75% of poll factor - This is only the top 25 plus receiving votes (in votes received order, ended up with around 39 numbered teams total) of the prior year, anyone not in this was numbered 50 to not skew these rankings - Final S&P+ rankings - 25% of poll factor - This is a full ranking of the top 130ish teams - thought this would be helpful to add because it actually ranks all teams not just 25 Production Factor - Weighted 35% of total - Meant to be a factor weighing returning production/starters. This is based on Bill Connley's article on returning production - this is from February so it's highly possible that it's outdated, but i'm not sure if there's a more recent one. You can read his article for the methodology he takes https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/35577489/college-football-teams-returning-production-2023-season -Weighted Offense Factor - 50% of production factor, made up of following - Returning offense production - 60% of weighted offense - Offense unit rank - 40% of weighted offense - based on the S&P+ offense ranks - Weighted Defense Factor - 50% of production factor, made up of following - Returning defense production - 60% of weighted defense - Defense unit rank - 40% of weighted defense - based on the S&P+ defense ranks I'll put the weighted ranking of each team below in my "reasons" as well

Rank Team Reason
1 Michigan Wolverines Recruiting Rank #11 Poll Rank #2 Production Rank #1 Overall Weighted Number 5.25 I think this isn't too out of line, Michigan should be a top team and they're boosted by returning some great players from last years roster
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Recruiting Rank #3 Poll Rank #4 Production Rank #13 Overall Weighted Number 6.75 Kind of the opposite of above, better recruiting numbers but a little worse returning numbers makes Ohio State number 2
3 Clemson Tigers Recruiting Rank #5 Poll Rank #12 Production Rank #14 Overall Weighted Number 9.9 Still making sense so far
4 Texas Longhorns Recruiting Rank #7 Poll Rank #19 Production Rank #7 Overall Weighted Number 10 Texas is BACK!!! (Maybe, we'll see)
5 LSU Tigers Recruiting Rank #6 Poll Rank #16 Production Rank #12 Overall Weighted Number 10.6 LSU finished last year really strong, so this isn't super surprising
6 Florida State Seminoles Recruiting Rank #18 Poll Rank #14 Production Rank #2 Overall Weighted Number 11.4 Setting up for a great week one matchup between FSU and LSU, FSU really being boosted by bringing back big portions of their team even if their recruiting isn't quite at the high level it's been in the past
7 Georgia Bulldogs Recruiting Rank #2 Poll Rank #1 Production Rank #31 Overall Weighted Number 11.9 Georgia gets hit hard for losing so much production from the prior year. Do I really think they're the number 7 team? Probably not, but this is where they ended up.
8 USC Trojans Recruiting Rank #22 Poll Rank #10 Production Rank #5 Overall Weighted Number 13.05 I actually think USC would be higher if I weighted recruiting differently or accounted for transfers differently, but this is where they end up. Similar to Georgia wouldn't be surprised to see them higher at the end of the day.
9 Utah Utes Recruiting Rank #27 Poll Rank #8 Production Rank #3 Overall Weighted Number 13.85 Really boosted by returning production here as the recruiting isn't quite as good as some others around here, but Utah has shown that they are a good competitive team
10 Penn State Nittany Lions Recruiting Rank #14 Poll Rank #7 Production Rank #20 Overall Weighted Number 14.35 This seems about right for Penn State. They could be better than this after all is said and done, but it's never an easy road in the Big 10
11 Texas A&M Aggies Recruiting Rank #4 Poll Rank #49 Production Rank #4 Overall Weighted Number 15.25 Everyone knows that Texas A&M recruits at a high level and that they had a young team last year. Still remains to be seen if there's going to be a year where they can actually put things together.
12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Recruiting Rank #9 Poll Rank #21 Production Rank #24 Overall Weighted Number 17.25 My rankings didn't factor in things like coaching staff changes, but will have to see how big of an impact losing their OC will have
13 Tennessee Volunteers Recruiting Rank #15 Poll Rank #6 Production Rank #33 Overall Weighted Number 19.05
14 Oregon Ducks Recruiting Rank #10 Poll Rank #15 Production Rank #34 Overall Weighted Number 19.65
15 Ole Miss Rebels Recruiting Rank #19 Poll Rank #38 Production Rank #11 Overall Weighted Number 20.95
16 Washington Huskies Recruiting Rank #48 Poll Rank #9 Production Rank #9 Overall Weighted Number 24.6
17 Missouri Tigers Recruiting Rank #26 Poll Rank #52 Production Rank #8 Overall Weighted Number 26.2 This is a weird one, but basically any of the ways I weighted this one they ended up towards this part of the top 25. Not sure if this really plays out with Missouri as a top 25 team but who knows.
18 North Carolina Tar Heels Recruiting Rank #16 Poll Rank #34 Production Rank #37 Overall Weighted Number 27.85
19 Auburn Tigers Recruiting Rank #17 Poll Rank #57 Production Rank #23 Overall Weighted Number 29.1 I guess we'll see if Hugh Freeze really can turn Auburn around quickly, but the roster seemingly has the talent to make that happen.
20 Wisconsin Badgers Recruiting Rank #29 Poll Rank #50 Production Rank #17 Overall Weighted Number 30.05 Similar to the above, will have to see if Luke Fickell can quickly turn this team around
21 Oklahoma Sooners Recruiting Rank #8 Poll Rank #39 Production Rank #50 Overall Weighted Number 30.45
22 TCU Horned Frogs Recruiting Rank #35 Poll Rank #3 Production Rank #46 Overall Weighted Number 30.85
23 Mississippi State Bulldogs Recruiting Rank #21 Poll Rank #18 Production Rank #55 Overall Weighted Number 32.15
24 Alabama Crimson Tide Recruiting Rank #1 Poll Rank #5 Production Rank #92 Overall Weighted Number 33.85 Never count Nick Saban out. Alabama lost a lot of talent which is driving them down here, but typically I wouldn't have Alabama this low to start a season
25 Kansas State Wildcats Recruiting Rank #58 Poll Rank #11 Production Rank #25 Overall Weighted Number 34.7

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