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SpursUpSoundsGudToMe Ballot for 2023 Preseason

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Aug. 13, 2023, 11:14 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I use a personal rating algorithm based on game outcomes- margin of victory (accounting for "garbage time" scores), quality of opponent, home/road. First few weeks are based on last years performance, what I think of the coach and, to be honest, vibes about what was gained/lost, I try to use some stats for this, but I find most of them unsatisfactory. It's hybrid because until week 3 there isn't enough data to be particularly meaningful and until week 7-8 many teams can be tied in clusters, so for ranking purposes I'll use the eye test to list them in order. I am looking for if a team is particularly dominant at any one of the 5 main aspects of the game (run defense, pass defense, run/screen offense, passing offense, special teams), if a team looks disorganized or poorly coached/prepared, and turnover luck. I think some analytics people put too much emphasis on the "luck" part of that, so I think you have to actually watch those turnover plays and see how it happened. By the end of the season you could call it a computer poll, but for much of the time it is hybrid.

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs Well... duh
2 Michigan Wolverines Played an ugly game against TCU but physically dominated their rival on the road last year, fully an elite program again and have been steadily, if slowly, going in the right direction.
3 Alabama Crimson Tide It's Saban...
4 LSU Tigers Surprisingly fast turnaround, love em or hate em, Kelly is a good coach, and I like the QB a lot.
5 Ohio State Buckeyes Opposite of Michigan, played great against the Champs, but got manhandled at home by Michigan, it's a big year for Day.
6 Penn State Nittany Lions On paper they should be very good, will be watching them closely.
7 Clemson Tigers Elite athletes all over the place, but can they get their offense together?
8 USC Trojans They have a dream QB/Coach combination, but think they lack the beef on the line to run with the big boys.
9 Florida State Seminoles Odd start for Norvell, but this could be the year it comes together, they have a few spectacular players that can change close games. Johnny Wilson has gamebreaker potential.
10 Texas Longhorns They've been crootin', and have at least one very good QB.
11 TCU Horned Frogs Doubt we'll see a repeat of last year, but they have one of the best coaches in the game.
12 Tulane Green Wave I don't think last year was a fluke, they have line play that can help them punch above their weight class.
13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Rough opening to the season, but credit to Freeman for keeping it together and finishing strong. I think they grow from that.
14 Utah Utes Toughest team in America and one of the toughest places to play at altitude. Never losing at home is a good way to stay in the rankings.
15 Oregon Ducks Always have athletes.
16 Tennessee Volunteers I'm inclined to believe they will miss Hooker's accuracy and consistency a great deal, still a good team, but I don't think it will look as pretty as last season.
17 Ole Miss Rebels I guess we just have to accept that Kiffin in a legitimately good offensive coach. Defense was atrocious at times last year.
18 Kansas State Wildcats Always tough, one of those schools were the program ethos seems to integrate into every iteration of the team. If you play hard on every down you're going to win more than you lose.
19 Texas A&M Aggies I suspect the elite recruiting will start paying dividends this year, but they need more from the QB position.
20 Wisconsin Badgers Some of the best coaching hires of the last cycle, will be weird watching Badger uniforms running Longo's offense, I don't expect instant transformation, but Fickell is starting with better players than he did at Cincinnati.
21 UTSA Roadrunners A very very well run program that always executes at a high level. I don't think they have the athletes to make a Tulane-like push at this point, but I don't think they fall off much after stepping up a level from CUSA
22 Boise State Broncos The program is a machine at this point. A couple points in conference play will determine if they stay in the rankings.
23 South Carolina Gamecocks A tremendous finish to the season where the offense shook loose from a year and half of stagnation. This year there are questions on both lines, but lots of weapons on offense and elite young talent in the secondary.
24 North Carolina Tar Heels For my money UNC had the worst defense in the P5 last season, but who needs defense when you can just score more...
25 James Madison Dukes This is more of a program pick because I think the Sun Belt is too good to be denied an entry. I am impressed by what they are building at JMU, but if there is a step back this season then I'm sure Troy will be happy to take their place in the rankings.

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