Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Aug. 20, 2023, 2:56 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Georgia Bulldogs	3.21
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	2.93
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	2.88
4	Michigan Wolverines	2.80
5	Tennessee Volunteers	2.75
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	2.64
7	Utah Utes	2.50
8	Texas Longhorns	2.48
9	LSU Tigers	2.46
10	Kansas State Wildcats	2.42
11	Clemson Tigers	2.32
12	TCU Horned Frogs	2.31
13	Oregon State Beavers	2.30
14	Florida State Seminoles	2.29
15	Oregon Ducks	2.26
16	Mississippi State Bulldogs	2.26
17	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	2.25
18	Minnesota Golden Gophers	2.22
19	Illinois Fighting Illini	2.22
20	Washington Huskies	2.21
21	USC Trojans	2.20
22	Iowa Hawkeyes	2.20
23	Wisconsin Badgers	2.16
24	Oklahoma Sooners	2.15
25	Ole Miss Rebels	2.15

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.25
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
4	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
5	Tennessee Volunteers	0.99
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
7	Utah Utes	0.74
8	Texas Longhorns	0.44
9	LSU Tigers	0.00
10	Kansas State Wildcats	1.00
11	Clemson Tigers	0.00
12	TCU Horned Frogs	0.28
13	Oregon State Beavers	0.73
14	Florida State Seminoles	-0.52
15	Oregon Ducks	0.00
16	Mississippi State Bulldogs	7.99
17	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
18	Minnesota Golden Gophers	6.82
19	Illinois Fighting Illini	5.79
20	Washington Huskies	-1.41
21	USC Trojans	-2.73
22	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.15
23	Wisconsin Badgers	0.00
24	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
25	Ole Miss Rebels	-0.07

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Tulane Green Wave	0.43
North Carolina Tar Heels	0.42
Texas Tech Red Raiders	0.02
South Carolina Gamecocks	0.02

Total Score: 30.82