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BosskOnASegway Ballot for 2026 Week 7

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 12, 2026, 1:55 p.m.

Overall Rationale: First week with no pre-season priors. I considered altering the margin curve and a few other factors since things look strange but this remains the best fit for the data both as a predictive metric and on the retrograde (percent of time the higher ranked team beat the lower ranked adjusted for implied probabilities). Also recall, this model is a scores only model, nothing outside the scores on the field this season (as officially recognized) and the home/away status of the games impacts the ratings.

This week I also included Strength of schedule and remaining strength of schedule. These are both computed based on the expected record of the #25 team (this week Oklahoma State) against the same schedule. If you are interested in their projected records let me know. Georgia jumped from near the bottom in SoS to near the top in a single game since Alabama is basically a guaranteed loss according to the model for everyone outside the top 20.

Despite the loss Alabama remains the top ranked team due to their strength of schedule and margins of victor and defeat. South Carolina is the strangest inclusion but blowing out Florida plus a close loss to Kentucky pull them up. They aren't impacted by their blowout loss to Alabama since everyone outside the top 20 is expected to lose to Alabama by the margin cap or more. They also performed almost exactly as you would expect the #20 team to against Mississippi State.

For many teams the loss of bit of preseason anchoring had a greater impact than the on-field results which is why you see things like LSU who had a terrible preseason rating due to a week previous season going up despite a loss and Ohio State and Notre Dame for example dropping despite strong performances.

Here are the top 30 + changes and SoS.

| Rank | Name | Elo | Record | SoS | SoS Remaining |
|:----:|------|----:|:------:|----:|--------------:|
| 1 (—) | Alabama | 2098.8 (+7.2) | 5-1 | #1 | #53 |
| 2 (↑5) | Georgia | 2075.1 (+216.1) | 6-0 | #40 | #26 |
| 3 (—) | Miami (FL) | 2069.7 (+106.7) | 5-0 | #28 | #52 |
| 4 (↓2) | Notre Dame | 1998.4 (-31.0) | 6-0 | #38 | #42 |
| 5 (↑5) | UCLA | 1959.6 (+145.6) | 5-0 | #22 | #69 |
| 6 (↓2) | Texas Tech | 1912.7 (+9.2) | 5-0 | #35 | #57 |
| 7 (↑7) | Mississippi St. | 1887.4 (+98.1) | 4-1 | #3 | #35 |
| 8 (↑1) | Houston | 1884.8 (+55.0) | 5-1 | #25 | #43 |
| 9 (↓3) | Ohio St. | 1850.8 (-37.5) | 5-1 | #56 | #12 |
| 10 (↑10) | Kentucky | 1835.3 (+112.8) | 5-1 | #9 | #24 |
| 11 (↑1) | Indiana | 1833.2 (+36.6) | 6-0 | #61 | #54 |
| 12 (↓1) | BYU | 1828.6 (+26.5) | 5-0 | #76 | #33 |
| 13 (↑3) | Missouri | 1823.6 (+63.9) | 5-1 | #48 | #5 |
| 14 (↓9) | Texas | 1822.6 (-68.7) | 4-1 | #12 | #16 |
| 15 (—) | Utah | 1813.9 (+34.2) | 5-0 | #129 | #31 |
| 16 (↓3) | Oregon | 1807.6 (+14.2) | 3-2 | #5 | #41 |
| 17 (↑2) | Boise St. | 1804.4 (+79.5) | 5-1 | #42 | #94 |
| 18 (↑6) | LSU | 1790.5 (+90.8) | 4-2 | #19 | #3 |
| 19 (↑8) | Wake Forest | 1770.8 (+122.7) | 5-1 | #20 | #81 |
| 20 (↑8) | South Carolina | 1769.5 (+127.6) | 3-3 | #4 | #14 |
| 21 (↓13) | Nebraska | 1760.4 (-70.2) | 5-1 | #89 | #40 |
| 22 (↓5) | Northwestern | 1756.6 (+6.9) | 4-1 | #67 | #45 |
| 23 (↑3) | Clemson | 1734.8 (+82.7) | 3-2 | #6 | #70 |
| 24 (↓6) | Tennessee | 1732.5 (-5.3) | 5-1 | #65 | #6 |
| 25 (↑32) | Oklahoma St. | 1712.8 (+206.1) | 4-1 | #52 | #44 |
| 26 (↓1) | Ole Miss | 1695.4 (+40.9) | 4-1 | #31 | #13 |
| 27 (↓4) | Wisconsin | 1693.7 (-13.0) | 4-1 | #44 | #39 |
| 28 (↑21) | North Carolina | 1691.9 (+155.6) | 3-2 | #7 | #59 |
| 29 (↑9) | Arizona | 1685.9 (+98.1) | 5-1 | #86 | #49 |
| 30 (↑5) | Baylor | 1681.1 (+77.0) | 4-1 | #98 | #22 |

Here is the conference breakdowns too. Cheers to Rutgers for being the worst team in the P4.

| Conference | Teams | Avg Elo | Median Rank | Top 10 | Top 25 | Bottom 25 | Best | Worst |
|------------|------:|--------:|------------:|-------:|-------:|----------:|------|-------|
| SEC | 16 | 1751.9 | 22.0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | Alabama (#1) | Vanderbilt (#80) |
| FBS Independent | 2 | 1694.8 | 48.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Notre Dame (#4) | UConn (#93) |
| Big Ten | 18 | 1625.3 | 40.0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | UCLA (#5) | Rutgers (#127) |
| Big 12 | 16 | 1620.6 | 45.0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | Texas Tech (#6) | Kansas (#95) |
| ACC | 17 | 1558.8 | 66.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | Miami (FL) (#3) | Boston College (#119) |
| Pac-12 | 8 | 1463.0 | 81.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Boise St. (#17) | Washington St. (#124) |
| American | 14 | 1411.1 | 85.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Memphis (#37) | Charlotte (#137) |
| Sun Belt | 14 | 1360.5 | 104.0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | James Madison (#32) | ULM (#136) |
| Mountain West | 10 | 1333.9 | 115.0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | North Dakota St. (#43) | NIU (#138) |
| MAC | 13 | 1327.5 | 101.0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Western Mich. (#59) | Sacramento St. (#135) |
| CUSA | 10 | 1316.9 | 116.5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | Liberty (#48) | Missouri St. (#134) |


Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2091.6 -> 2098.8 [+7.2] (#1 -> #1)
2 Georgia Bulldogs 1859.0 -> 2075.1 [+216.1] (#7 -> #2)
3 Miami Hurricanes 1963.0 -> 2069.7 [+106.7] (#3 -> #3)
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2029.4 -> 1998.4 [-31.0] (#2 -> #4)
5 UCLA Bruins 1814.0 -> 1959.6 [+145.6] (#10 -> #5)
6 Texas Tech Red Raiders 1903.5 -> 1912.7 [+9.2] (#4 -> #6)
7 Mississippi State Bulldogs 1789.3 -> 1887.4 [+98.1] (#14 -> #7)
8 Houston Cougars 1829.8 -> 1884.8 [+55.0] (#9 -> #8)
9 Ohio State Buckeyes 1888.3 -> 1850.8 [-37.5] (#6 -> #9)
10 Kentucky Wildcats 1722.5 -> 1835.3 [+112.8] (#20 -> #10)
11 Indiana Hoosiers 1796.6 -> 1833.2 [+36.6] (#12 -> #11)
12 BYU Cougars 1802.1 -> 1828.6 [+26.5] (#11 -> #12)
13 Missouri Tigers 1759.7 -> 1823.6 [+63.9] (#16 -> #13)
14 Texas Longhorns 1891.3 -> 1822.6 [-68.7] (#5 -> #14)
15 Utah Utes 1779.7 -> 1813.9 [+34.2] (#15 -> #15)
16 Oregon Ducks 1793.4 -> 1807.6 [+14.2] (#13 -> #16)
17 Boise State Broncos 1724.9 -> 1804.4 [+79.5] (#19 -> #17)
18 LSU Tigers 1699.7 -> 1790.5 [+90.8] (#24 -> #18)
19 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 1648.1 -> 1770.8 [+122.7] (#27 -> #19)
20 South Carolina Gamecocks 1641.9 -> 1769.5 [+127.6] (#28 -> #20)
21 Nebraska Cornhuskers 1830.6 -> 1760.4 [-70.2] (#8 -> #21)
22 Northwestern Wildcats 1749.7 -> 1756.6 [+6.9] (#17 -> #22)
23 Clemson Tigers 1652.1 -> 1734.8 [+82.7] (#26 -> #23)
24 Tennessee Volunteers 1737.8 -> 1732.5 [-5.3] (#18 -> #24)
25 Oklahoma State Cowboys 1506.7 -> 1712.8 [+206.1] (#57 -> #25)

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