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ManiacalBlazer Ballot for 2026 Week 7

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 13, 2026, 9:56 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I usually wait until Week 8 to start posting my computer poll, but it's been rating relatively well since Week 5 in my opinion so I'm going to start building ballots with it a bit early this season. I've been using a computer poll since 2003 (all my math), and over the years I’ve tweaked it time and again. If an adjustment gets me a decent enough result earlier in a season and retroactively over previous seasons, I will tend to keep it going forward, so I may post these sooner from now on.

With this change in plan, I wasn’t prepared to write this introduction late at night after all the games, and so I had to give up my pre-AP rating for the week so that it would hopefully make a little more sense than the groggy, late-night version I initially provided.

Let me just start by claiming that there are no preseason factors included in my computer poll, and that’s why I introduce it mid-season. This poll doesn't just weigh strength of schedule against results and scores, but gauges the ability of a team to score against and separately to prevent the scoring of an average opponent. This is different than measuring the strength of an offense or a defense and trying to incorporate special teams in some way, and it doesn't rely on yards gained or given up, because wins and losses are defined by scoring and the prevention thereof and not necessarily by how a team performs between the end zones.

What that means is, each team is rated two values to start with. The first value shows how many points they would typically add or, if they’re bad, subtract from the number of points an average opponent would give up to another average opponent. Likewise a separate value shows how many points they would subtract or, if they’re bad, add to the average points an opponent typically scores in a game against another average opponent. Here's a list of the best and worst teams in each rating:

Points Added (to what an average team gives up to an average opponent):
1. Alabama +18.5
2. Miami +17.5
3. Georgia +15.8
4. Notre Dame +15.6
5. Ohio State +14.8
...
134. Utah State -10.9
135. Charlotte -11.2
136. Northern Illinois -11.5
137. Wyoming -12.4
138. Kent State -13.6

Points Prevented (from what an average team scores on an average opponent):
1. Indiana -17.0
2. Texas -15.5
3. BYU -13.7
4. Alabama -12.7
5. FIU -12.4 (-8.5 on the Points Added side, great sickos contestant)
...
134. Ball State +10.7
135. Charlotte +11.3
136. Colorado State +11.5 (+11.3 on the Points Added side, showing their WACBall roots)
137. UTEP +11.6
138. UL Monroe +15.7

These values are then calculated into a separate overall team rating which I use to rank each team every week. This rating is a team’s percent likelihood to beat an average opponent, and the ranking itself is just ordering who is most likely to win against any given program, so this is a strength metric as opposed to a reward metric. Likelihood does not mean automatic, and every team brings a potential range of quality to the field in any given week. While I said it doesn’t necessarily reward anyone for unexpected results, keep in mind those results do have to factor into the ranking on some level, so a surprising result might push up a team’s overall calculated strength to some degree.

Finally, this week's ballot is given below. In addition, the next ten out are: Wisconsin, Baylor, Arizona, Oklahoma State, New Mexico, Ole Miss, Florida, Boise State, North Dakota State, and Oklahoma. I should recognize that the model regards Ole Miss as severely overrated at the moment, but that doesn't mean that they won't climb up my ballot in later weeks.

Conference Rating (average of all members):
1. SEC - 71.289 (8 ranked)
2. Big Ten - 67.692 (8 ranked)
3. Big XII - 67.153 (4 ranked)
4. ACC - 59.863 (3 ranked)
5. Pac-12 - 49.614 (0 ranked)
6. American - 48.716 (0 ranked)
7. SBC - 46.290 (1 ranked)
8. MWC - 44.853 (0 ranked)
9. CUSA - 41.053 (0 ranked)
10. MAC - 37.958 (0 ranked)
(1 Independent ranked)

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs 90.337, (6-0). Model estimates they have the best win of the season so far.
2 Indiana Hoosiers 90.319, (6-0). Seems to have the most significant impact on opponents' scoring ability despite recent results.
3 Alabama Crimson Tide 89.714, (5-1). Despite Georgia result, opponents seem to have the most difficulty stopping them.
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 88.617, (6-0). Top ten battle this coming weekend with BYU.
5 Miami Hurricanes 87.923, (5-0). Bye week. Not the highest rated due to schedule, but are crushing their opponents the most. Second best scoring ability overall.
6 Ohio State Buckeyes 84.782, (5-1). Remaining schedule will be tough. The other top ten battle this weekend with Indiana.
7 Utah Utes 82.548, (5-0). Schedule needs improvement, but looks tough so far.
8 Texas Longhorns 82.167, (4-1). Scoring ability rated below everyone ahead of them. Second best scoring prevention overall.
9 UCLA Bruins 81.822, (5-0). Showed how not to give up a 17-6 lead in the 4th quarter... barely.
10 BYU Cougars 81.163, (5-0). Shares highest rated rival pairing with Utah above.
11 Houston Cougars 80.420, (4-1). Early Oregon State win starting to look good on their resume.
12 Nebraska Cornhuskers 79.236, (5-1). Possibly the most underrated team so far, assuming no late-season collapse incoming.
13 Texas Tech Red Raiders 78.902, (5-0). Bye week.
14 James Madison Dukes 78.724, (6-0). Just got an invitation to the American Conference.
15 USC Trojans 78.522, (6-1). Has the most difficulty preventing scoring among all teams on this ballot.
16 Missouri Tigers 78.363, (5-1). Top of the SEC merry-go-round, or is that now Texas?
17 LSU Tigers 75.942, (4-2). High unpredictability.
18 Pittsburgh Panthers 75.880, (5-1). Largest drop against last week's computer poll of any team still in the poll. Duke beats out Florida for largest drop for a team that was in the poll last week.
19 Tennessee Volunteers 75.288, (5-1). Gained 4 spots against last week's computer poll despite losing a bit in their rating.
20 Mississippi State Bulldogs 75.213, (4-1). Bye week.
21 Iowa Hawkeyes 74.916, (5-1). Lowest scoring ability of all teams on this ballot, as is their reputation.
22 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 74.213, (5-1). Most balanced team on this ballot. There are 13 teams on this ballot that are better on both sides, however.
23 Oregon Ducks 74.191, (3-2). Schedule so far is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Hard to predict what you're going to get each week, injuries or not.
24 Northwestern Wildcats 72.656, (4-1). Indiana result manages to work in their favor. Other results are decent enough so far.
25 Kentucky Wildcats 72.645, (5-1). Far less ability to affect the average opponent's gameplan than anyone in the top-35 despite some close wins.

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