Somehow the Cyclones will beat Iowa and Baylor, but also lose 4 conference games. Winning their bowl game will put them back into the rankings after the post-season, with a 9-4 final record.
This is a hot take, but I think that Iowa State is going to be quite good this year. A lot of their problems last year were caused by Brock Purdy playing too much hero ball, and I think with him gone the team will be more balanced.