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dusklord1 Ballot for 2022 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 23, 2022, 11:07 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Lots of emphasis on returning production/talent. Generally believe that aggregate talent + past results are the best predictors of the future.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Clear #1, they return the best player on defense, one of the best two players on offense, and Saban.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes As long last year's very young defense that went without a true DC most of the year improves somewhat, OSU is back to the playoffs. I don't think this is a very hard ask, especially after hiring a Broyles award candidate.
3 Georgia Bulldogs Although Georgia graduated a large chunk of their historically elite defense, they recruit well enough to reload and have the 2nd or 3rd best coach in the sport. They also have the benefit of being in the SEC East. Despite being a stronger division than in the recent past, the SEC East is Georgia plus teams that will jostle for rankings in the 15-25 range (and Vandy). The West has 5-6 teams that could reasonably contend for a NY6 bowl.
4 Clemson Tigers Spots 4-9 are a complete tossup. Although I feel confident in the six teams I put in this range, I have much less confidence in their exact ordering. Clemson has the least amount of questions to answer. The raw talent and experience on defense will likely dampen the loss of Brent Venables, and their offense can't possibly be as bad as it was last year. Their conference schedule is quite favorable, getting Wake Forest before Sam Hartman is probable to return, playing NC State at home, and dodging Pitt. Furthermore, the ACC may be strong enough for a stumble on the road against Notre Dame to not spell the end of their playoff hopes.
5 Michigan Wolverines Despite losing both coordinates and nearly losing their coach, Michigan is still number 5, which says more about the other teams surrounding them than anything. Their offense will be very good, and the defense should still be solid, in spite of losing two first round edge rushers. They have as pillow soft a schedule as a team in the Big 10 East can ask for, with no P5 non-conference games, no Wisconsin, and both Michigan State and Penn State at home. By Vegas spreads, they should be 11-0 heading into The Game. However, I would be very surprised if they don't drop at least one game somewhere. MSU and PSU are still very good Iowa has Kinnick voodoo and a monster defense, and last year's team nearly lost to Nebraska, Rutgers, and Penn State meaning a random upset isn't out of the question.
6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish This pick puts a lot of faith in Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame's trenches, perhaps too much. They're breaking in a first time head coach and a new quarterback. Although their line play will be great, there are lots of question marks at QB and receiver. Their schedule does them no favors either. OSU and Clemson should both be favored to beat them. BYU and @USC are also losable games, not to mention a handful of plausible (albeit unlikely) upsets like UNC and Stanford. If Marcus Freeman lives up to the hype and Buchner is serviceable, this is a 10-2 or 11-1 team that's at least in a NY6 game. If there are major growing pains, they might be a 7-8 win team. I think the former is far more likely than the latter though.
7 Oklahoma Sooners I think the combination of a Brent Venables defense and a Jeff Lebby offense will propel back to the top of the Big12. Dillon Gabriel might not be Caleb Williams, but he doesn't need to be. Their two biggest competitors, OSU and Baylor, lose lots of production and/or coaches, and Texas is Texas. Although I doubt they're a playoff team (despite their schedule being more favorable to do so than #4-5), they will be a solid NY6 team. Like Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame, the Venables era could start out with some growing pains and an 8 win season, but their schedule is reasonably favorable. No top teams in OOC play and OSU and Baylor both come to Norman.
8 Utah Utes Can Utah not crap the bed when they are preseason Pac12 favorites and a dark horse playoff contender? Last year, after returning QB Cam Rising became their starter, they played like a playoff team, particularly in their blowout wins over Oregon. They should be favored in every game except maybe @Oregon. If they can avoid multiple random Pac12 After Dark upsets, they should be back to the Rose Bowl. However, there should be a bit more competition in the Pac 12 than normal, between Oregon, a resurgent and very talented USC, and dark horse Oregon State.
9 Texas A&M Aggies Last year, A&M was a quarterback away from being a NY6 caliber team. Instead, they went 8-4. Could they go 8-4 this year, even with good QB play? Yes. The SEC west is ridiculously stacked. No team in the west is a free win and A&M's monster '22 class will not immediately contribute. However, the three previous classes were all top 10 and Jimbo Fisher is a great coach. Thus, I'd tend to give the nod to the #2 slot in the west and a NY6 bid to A&M. The safe bet is that they lose horribly to Alabama and get upset by some SEC West team like MSU or Auburn, but run the table otherwise.
10 NC State Wolfpack NC State returns over 80% of its production from last year, according to ESPN. They should have a great season. I don't think they're getting anything beyond an at large NY6 berth though (or an ACC bid if Clemson is in the playoffs). I can't see them beating Clemson on the road, even if they live up to expectations in every other game. Clemson has so much more raw talent.
11 Michigan State Spartans Despite losing Kenneth Walker, Michigan State returns a lot of its production. I think MSU will slip a little bit relative to last year, and will probably not be a NY6 team again without some luck, but I trust Mel Tucker to keep MSU near the top of the Big 10.
12 Wisconsin Badgers In Braelon Allen (and the defense) we trust! If Allen can keep the Wisconsin offense from looking utterly anemic as it did at times last year, they will go back to Indy. Unfortunately, they have crossovers against OSU and MSU, so they will probably need to win one of those games to comfortably win the division. Otherwise, they'll need to be flawless against the other teams in the west, and I don't think Wisconsin is that much better than the field for that to be something they can count on.
13 Oregon Ducks Oregon had a weird year last year. They beat a very good OSU team, lost a dubious game to Stanford, proceeded to continue winning, and then got blown out by Utah twice. They have a new coach this year, which could be great if you think Mario Cristobal was a great recruiter but mediocre game day coach. They definitely have the talent to be the #1 or #2 team in the Pac12, but their OOC schedule is brutal ("neutral" site vs Georgia and vs BYU). I don't think any of the Pac 12 teams are good enough to pull away from the pack and win the conference with the requisite one loss or less to contend for the playoffs.
14 Kentucky Wildcats Mark Stoops has turned Kentucky into the second best program in the SEC East. However, #2 in the east and a 10-2 or 9-3 record is probably their ceiling. They don't have the talent to beat Georgia, and they're not far enough ahead of the rest of the east for me to confidently say they will go unbeaten.
15 Baylor Bears Dave Aranda is a good coach. He turned a 2 win season in 2020 to a 2 loss season in 2021. However, I'm pretty bearish on Baylor (pun not intended). They lose over half of their production, good for 126th out of 131 teams. A good coach can only do so much with this much turnover, especially when you play road games against BYU, Texas, and Oklahoma.
16 BYU Cougars BYU went 10-3 last year and returns almost 90% of their production, which is absurd. Their schedule is quite difficult this year, with 4 AP-ranked teams and a handful of good to great G5 teams. Their record might not indicate improvement, but the product on the field should.
17 Pittsburgh Panthers Pitt is almost certainly the favorite for the ACC Coastal title. I don't trust Miami and the rest of the division will be not great. Unfortunately for them, all of their toughest conference games are on the road, which might impede their ability to be the first (and only, now that divisions are getting scrapped) back to back Coastal winner.
18 Arkansas Razorbacks I'm pretty bullish on Arkansas. They're a serious NY6 contender with a shot at the playoffs in any other conference. However, playing in the SEC West means that they're a dark horse NY6 team at best. They also have a tough OOC schedule, facing off against BYU and Cincinnati. They could be a 7-5 team that's one of the "best" (not most deserving) teams in the country. However, I think they'll end up being better than that, especially returning a very good QB in KJ Jefferson.
19 Cincinnati Bearcats Cincinnati lost two of the cornerstones of their 2021 team, Sauce Gardener and Desmond Ridder, as well as 7 other players to the draft. For a G5 team, that's tough to rebuild from. That they're ranked this highly is a testament to how good of a coach Luke Fickell is. However, they won't return to the playoffs this year. They start the season @Arkansas, which will almost certainly be their first regular season loss since 2019 Memphis. In conference, they will have to contend with resurgent Houston and UCF squads. I think they're a slight favorite to win the AAC, but with an 11-1 or 10-2 record.
20 Penn State Nittany Lions Another really weird team from last year. If healthy, I'd like to think Penn State was a top 10 to top 15 team. I can't imagine they lose to Iowa or Illinois with a healthy McSorely at a minimum. However, they had no depth at QB and a poor offensive line, which derailed their season. They deserve criticism for that and going .500 across the last 2 seasons makes it close to strictly wrong to put them much higher before they prove it on the field. I think they'll bounce back this year though. Furthermore, I don't trust James Franklin's ability to make good decisions in close games.
21 Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa returns most of a very good defense. That's great news. However, they return Brian Ferentz and almost all of a bottom 10 offense in the FBS. That's not great news. The offense will need to be slightly below average or better to have a chance at another blowout loss in the Big 10 title game without some chaos. I don't remotely trust Brian Ferentz to do that. Their bad offense makes it way too easy for seemingly worse teams like Iowa State and the middle of the pack Big 10 west teams to pull off an upset.
22 Ole Miss Rebels Kiffin seems like he's an actually decent coach nowadays, and he killed it in the transfer portal. Their OOC schedule is pretty soft and their SEC crossover games aren't that horrible (Kentucky and Vanderbilt). In spite of this, Ole Miss still has to deal with a brutal SEC west and everyone can't make it through unscathed. By ability, they might be closer to a top 15 team, but by record they won't.
23 Oklahoma State Cowboys Similar to Baylor, the returning production is awful. I might be too down on Gundy and OSU by a few stops, but I definitely don't think Oklahoma State is a top 15 team given how much they lose. Losing Jim Knowles is also a huge deal.
24 Houston Cougars Houston dodges Cincinnati and UCF in the regular season, which should mean that Houston will be in the AAC conference championship game without too much of a problem. Even if they go undefeated, their ceiling is the G5 NY6 berth. The schedule is far too weak.
25 Mississippi State Bulldogs Mississippi State returns a lot of their production, particularly on defense. However, they pull both Georgia and Kentucky as crossover games and have tough road games against Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU. Like Ole Miss, the team might be better than their record indicates, but I can't see much better than 7 or 8 wins without serious luck.

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