Back to poll results >>

nw____ Ballot for 2022 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 21, 2022, 10 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Towards the beginning of the season, I usually start by looking at the AP Poll and Coaches Poll. If the CFP Rankings are out, I will look at those, too. At the very beginning of the season, I’ll check Vegas win totals. I want to make sure my rankings aren’t totally off the wall or something, as everyone is prone to bias. Plus, I simply can’t keep up with what has happened in the off season for every single team. I mean, I listen to podcasts and frequently browse the subreddit, but there are a lot of teams! From there, I base my rankings on how I think the team has performed. I watch a lot of games every weekend, so how a team does there is a factor. I try to base as much of my rankings as I can on *my* opinion, not just whatever the current narrative is. Because of that, I also try to remain as unbiased as possible. I have noticed that I definitely give more weight to an undefeated record than some of the more mainstream polls (e.g., UTSA’s run last year). I don’t care who you are or who you play, going undefeated at any level in CFB is very, very difficult, so I often wind up having those teams a few slots higher than other places (though not necessarily other r/CFB users). I have also noticed that I am willing to give a team that is elite on one side of the ball but kind of meh on the other more credit. Take Ohio State last year. Their defense was not great by their standards but I kept them a bit higher than some folks did because I knew very few teams (including the ones I primarily support!) would have any chance at slowing down their offense. Wisconsin and Oklahoma State are good examples of the inverse. Though they are my favorite teams’ rivals, there was no denying that scoring on those two defenses was extremely unlikely. I won’t penalize a team for “only” being elite on one side of the ball if the other side is truly elite. Another thing I try to do is rank teams over teams that they’ve beaten whenever possible. Say Florida State beat Florida but lost to Georgia Tech. Both are now one- loss teams. GT is a pretty bad loss this year but I just can’t justify ranking FSU behind UF if FSU has the head-to-head victory. I know that isn’t everyone’s philosophy but it is mine. In cases of a tie in my rankings, I will always give the edge to the team with the better quarterback. If both teams have elite QBs, I will give the edge to the team with the better offensive and defensive lines. If that isn’t helpful, I will give the edge to the team with the better defense in terms of SP+ rankings. I don’t have a dedicated points system (e.g., BCS) or anything because I like the ability to retain discretion. For instance, maybe there are two one-loss teams that are just about tied in my rankings. If I feel one of them has been very lucky or happened to catch other teams at the right time (e.g., Iowa last year, unfortunately), I will give the edge to the team that I think has earned their record to a greater degree. This kind of thing would only happen if teams have the same record, though, as I wouldn’t put a 2-loss team over a 1-loss team because I thought the 1-loss team was “lucky.” Also, I do not penalize teams with early byes but will give extra credit to teams if they have an “extra” win. So, for example, if Utah was 8-0 and Clemson was 7-0, I’d give a slight edge to Utah, no matter how “good” their additional win was. This is the kind of thing that will work itself out as the season goes, but I believe teams deserve some reward for playing an extra game. Conference strength and strength of schedule both matter to me, but there aren’t many universes in which I am going to put a 8-4 SEC team over an 11-1 (and certainly not a 12-0) MAC team. Now, if the MAC team dropped two games, they may go from being ranked in my top 15 to being totally unranked (due to their strength of schedule) but I am not willing to penalize a team with an exceptional record for something they can’t control. Besides, sometimes those G5 teams can be scary! They deserve a shot (e.g., Cincinnati vs. Georgia two years ago). An unorthodox thing that I do is penalize teams for **major** injuries (usually this just means a star quarterback going down but if a team relied heavily on a star RB— like Wisconsin and Braylon Allen— then they might get a slight dip, too). I kind of hate doing it but I think it is the right thing to do. Just look at how different Ole Miss looked in the Sugar Bowl after Corral went down. They weren’t the same team. And you’d better believe I’d apply this same criteria to Oklahoma— if Dillon Gabriel goes down and is replaced by *checks notes* Davis Beville or Micah Bowens, I am not going to assume they will be the same quality of team. It just doesn’t make any sense. (As an aside, I might actually bump Iowa up a spot or two is Spencer Petras went down…) One more thing I do is consider which teams kind of “haunt” other teams. For example, **prior to last season,** if I was trying to decide between Alabama or Georgia for the #1 spot, I’d give the edge to Bama, as UGA hadn’t yet figured out how to beat them when it mattered. I’d say the same for Ohio State and Michigan— it felt like Michigan lost to Ohio State 10x in a row. Now, in both cases, the underdog team finally got the monkey off of their back, so that would not apply anymore. Last year was a tough year for this criteria, as Oklahoma State also beat OU and Washington State also beat Washington. But, for some other rivalries, I think the criteria still applies (e.g., Florida over Tennessee, Iowa over Iowa State, Iowa over Nebraska). But, again, this would only be used for a tie breaker if I thought two teams should be ranked right around the same spot. It is a subjective system but it is one I feel confident in! I have been higher on teams than some others but those teams usually end up delivering come bowl season. It works pretty well for me!

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide I mean, come on.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes tOSU over UGA says more about how high I am on Jim Knowles than anything bad about UGA. With the talent Knowles will be working with, I expect a pretty quick improvement. In a year or two, they may have one of the best defenses in the B1G again. It doesn't hurt that their offense is as incredible as it is, either. That said, the defense isn't going to get a lot of time to settle in-- the front half of their schedule is tough.
3 Georgia Bulldogs Even with all of the players that were drafted, I expect them to be pretty good. I expect that they'll slip up once in the regular season, though I have a hard time picking a particular team to beat them. Their path to the CFP runs through Atlanta.
4 Clemson Tigers If they can manage even below average (rather than completely awful) QB play, they'll be my favorite to win the ACC. Interested to see how the loss of Venables affects them but I have a lot of faith in Goodwin. Losing Tony Elliott as OC may have actually been a pretty good thing, IMO.
5 Michigan Wolverines I have heard Michigan wants to open up their offense a bit more. Do they actually have the QB for that? I actually think they'll be a bit worse this year but their schedule looks super favorable. Hard to see them dropping more than one game in the regular season.
6 Utah Utes How can you not root for this team? They bring a ton of key pieces back. If they can play their physical style of ball and beat Florida, we'll probably know everything we need to know about them-- and see them in Vegas.
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish I am a believer in Freeman but think it might take a few years for him to get ND where he would like them to be. In the meantime, they'll still be an excellent team. Even with all of the consistency on the staff, I can't help but wonder whether Kelly's departure leaves them with a few growing pains. In a year or two, watch out.
8 Oklahoma Sooners Definitely biased here but I think OU is about where they should be in the AP and Coaches' Polls. Venables seems to have immediately keyed in on a problem the fans have noticed for a few years now: OU has lost its physical edge and toughness. I would never say Riley was a bad coach but I do think OU hit its ceiling with him at the helm. To take that next step, OU will need to be tougher-- Alabama and Georgia certainly are. I think BV was the perfect hire but admit that it may take another couple of seasons for OU to be rolling again. If he can give the team its edge back? Look out. As for this season, I think the offensive will be at least as good as it was last season (which, honestly, for OU standards, wasn't amazing). If the defense takes even a few small steps forward (e.g., not missing tackles and/or getting absolutely cooked by any WR with talent), OU should be right in the thick of it for another Big XII championship.
9 Baylor Bears I am a big Aranda guy and the top-10 ranking is like 75% based on him. I don't care who is playing for him, you're going to get a tough, physical team who will give you everything you can handle. Fortunately for Aranda, though, the players are also excellent. I love what Jeff Grimes does with all of the outside zone he runs. There is nothing fancy about this team-- they're just daring you to stop them. The problem? Not all that many teams can. They certainly punched OU in the mouth last season. I think their chances of repeating as Big XII champs hinge on their ability to do that again-- and they may pull it off.
10 Michigan State Spartans I don't really know what to expect from MSU this year. I am higher on them than some other people. I am also not exactly sure why that is. I could see this team winning 10 games. I could also see them winning 6-7, especially with how tough their schedule looks. At the end of the season, I will either look like a forward thinker or total idiot for ranking them in my preseason top 10. With my luck, it'll be the latter-- but I still felt strongly enough to "bet" the former by putting them here.
11 Oregon Ducks I think Lanning was a great hire and, in particular, a great successor to Cristobal. The team will continue to be tough and play with an edge. The problem? I am still not sure they'll be tougher or more physical than Utah, who punched them in the mouth (twice!) last season. Still, in a(nother) down year for the PAC-12, I don't see many sure losses here. They could be heading into Washington State 1-2 but, especially since I figure they'll improve as the season goes on and they get more familiar with Lanning, could be a team people are sleeping on by the end.
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys I wanted to rank OSU in my top ten but couldn't figure out how to do it. I know they beat OU last year-- I am still not a believer in Spencer Sanders. I am going to have to see if they can continue to play conservatively on offense without Jaylen Warren pounding the rock and after all of the losses they had on defense. They lost a ton (a TON) of experience at linebacker. They also lost Knowles who, for my money, may be a top 3-5 DC in all of CFB. Having said all of this, the reason I actually feel pretty highly about them is their defensive line, which could be absolutely nasty-- especially with how excellent their S&C program is. I don't see that many teams in the Big XII (possibly including OU) that will be able to block them for very long at all.
13 Texas A&M Aggies I am lower on A&M than some places seem to be. I think they might be worth a top 10 ranking next year as their stellar recruiting classes have more time to develop. This year? I'll believe it when I see it. I expect a very solid defense but have a lot of questions about their offense. This is another team I don't know what to expect from. They may have an 11-win season. I could just as easily see them having another 8-4 season (which, I have to say, would be hilarious).
14 Penn State Nittany Lions I am definitely higher on Penn State than others. I am expecting something around a 10-win season, which means they'll either need to beat Michigan or Michigan State. Their schedule really isn't too bad, though, and I (for reasons I cannot totally explain) feel pretty good about them bringing back Clifford. They're going to have to figure out how to replace Dotson, but I think this could be a good year for them.
15 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin fans will probably hate me for saying this but, if they had even an average QB, they'd be in my top 10. As is, I still think they could win 11 games primarily due to how high I am on their defense (despite losing a bunch of players, I still expect that they’ll be great on defense as long as Leonard is at the helm) and Braylon Allen (who was only 17 last year!). The changes they've made on offense are, in the end, going to determine how far this team goes. With a favorable schedule, though, I expect a really good year from the Badgers.
16 Pittsburgh Panthers Admittedly, I may be over-ranking Pitt due to placing too much importance what they did last season. It will be interesting to see what they do on offense given the losses of Pickett, Whipple, and Addison. This is another team I really don't know what to do with. If I had to guess, I'd say they finish the season ranked lower than this, but my uncertainty stopped me from going too crazy with their ranking.
17 Kentucky Wildcats Mark Stoops will do what he has been doing: Kentucky will be a very solid team and an opponent no one overlooks. If Levis is half as good as some folks are saying, they should be competing with UGA for the SEC East (though I definitely think UGA takes it this year). Admittedly, though, I am not quite as high on Levis (especially without Wan'Dale Robinson) and see this team winning around 9-10 games on the backs of an even better defense.
18 Wake Forest Demon Deacons The big question is how soon Hartman returns (definitely wishing him the best and hope he is ok). The good news is that I don't think his absence matters much until the Florida State game. If he is back quickly, I think we'll see pretty much the same team we saw last year. If they make any improvements on the defensive side? We may be looking at another double-digit win total for Wake Forest.
19 Cincinnati Bearcats This ranking is based on my faith in Fickell as a coach. They lost a lot but I expect that he will have his team ready to compete. It will be interesting to keep an eye on them this season. It’s odd, but Cincinnati may be a sleeper this year.
20 Houston Cougars Especially given what Cinci lost this offseason, Houston is in a prime position to take the AAC. In all honestly, I don't see a clear loss on their schedule and won't be surprised if they finish undefeated. I also will not be surprised if they lose a game they have no business losing at some point, though.
21 Arkansas Razorbacks Are people sleeping on Arkansas? Am I? They bring back a lot this year and I have a lot of faith in Pittman. They'll be tough and physical on offense while still making splash plays. All of the questions are on defense but they surely can't be much worse. I'll be keeping my eye on them this season, as I think they're a team that may surprise some people. As crazy as it sounds, I could see them winning 11 games. However, I could also see them winning 6 games. Such is life in the SEC West, I guess.
22 Texas Longhorns Like everyone else, I have no idea what to do with Texas. They've consistently under performed and I am not sold that Sark is the coach to bring them to the promise land again. With that offense, though? With Bijan back again? With possibly two of the best WRs in the Big XII? You almost have to rank them based on that fire power alone. Even though I don't know what to make of their defense, I think this team's success will hinge on its offensive line play. With solid play, I think the ceiling is around 10 wins. With below average or worse play? Well, they call him seven-win Sark for a reason, don't they?
23 Ole Miss Rebels I am kind of down on Ole Miss this year but think I might be wrong. Kiffin consistently produces solid teams. How will he offset the loss of two great coordinators and an NFL QB, though? Won't be shocked if this is a pretty down year for Ole Miss but think that Kiffin will have them rolling again in the next year or two.
24 NC State Wolfpack I'll admit that NC State was originally #26 in my rankings. I just can't get over the talent they have at QB and defensive line. Those positions are important enough that they'll win some games regardless of how the rest of the team plays. That said, I will believe it when I see it from NC State. They've had the talent to do more than they have been over the last couple of seasons and it makes me wonder whether Doeren is really the man for the job. He has done a terrific job, but has he taken NC State as far as he can? The window might be closing soon.
25 USC Trojans As an OU fan, I'd love to leave USC off of my top 25. I don't know what they'll be on defense but, with the transfers they've had (miss u Caleb), they're going to score points-- and lots of them. I wouldn't pick this team to win in all or anything but don't know how many teams in the PAC-12 will really be able to slow them down. I am expecting a lot of 40-something to 40-something games and think they'll win around 9 or 10 of them. It will be interesting to see if the problems Riley was starting to have at OU (mainly a lack of physicality on both sides of the ball and issues developing non-offensive skill position players) are mitigated by the bump I expect he'll have in recruiting. Riley will probably win the PAC-12 before USC moves to the B1G. I believe the move to the B1G will really show us how good USC can be under Riley. If they can play Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, etc. on snowy December Saturdays? They should be able to play with anybody. My bias? The S&C program and refusal to get bigger on the defensive line will stop them from reaching their true ceiling and problems will be magnified by the move to the B1G.

Back to poll results >>