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SpadeRyker Ballot for 2022 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 23, 2022, 9:18 a.m.

Overall Rationale: -Winners go up, losers go down -Schedule difficulty matters up to a point, if you just keep winning you will inevitably rise quite high by the end of the season -Close losses to good teams punished less heavily than blowout losses or losses to unranked/bad teams -Teams that play weaker schedules will rise slower from wins and fall harder from losses -I try to put the winner of a H2H ahead of the loser if the two are close in the standings either by pushing the winner up a bit higher than I originally planned or pushing the loser down a bit further -I ignore H2H if teams are further than ~3-5 spots away from one another or if one team has performed particularly well against tougher foes -Only in the case where two teams would end up right next to each other will I use "performance against common foe" as a means to distinguish which to put on top and even then I may ignore it for my version of the "eye test" -My eye test is simply about how balanced a team is, more balanced teams that are strong on both sides of the ball will place higher than teams overly reliant on either the offense or the defense while the other half of the team is a liability. This can be slightly overcome if one side is average while the other is great or something of that nature, but generally being good at both aspects of the game is preferred over being hyper offensive or hyper defensive. At about the mid point of each season I do a re-rank which leads to radical shifts in rankings. This achieves a few things: 1. I get to use some of the feedback and suggestions I've received throughout the season to correct for some biases I'd developed or to fix the rankings for teams I had paid less attention towards. 2. I eliminate preseason bias, effectively removing any teams lingering in the top 25 based on preseason expectations and adding teams I had underrated before the season began. 3. It lets me fix situations where I ranked a team higher due to early season ranked wins but which, by the midpoint of the season, were now unranked wins of lesser quality than I had formerly believed. It also lets me push teams higher that gained ranked wins over the course of the season as teams they beat became ranked, higher quality wins.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide The national runners up from last year return so much production and talent on both sides of the ball that it's almost impossible not to think they return to the playoffs as favorites to win it all.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Arguably the best offense in the country with all of the weapons to put up dozens of points on whoever they play. OSU's biggest weakness from a year ago, the defense, reloads with a new DC who promises to turn that unit around. If it works, they could win it all. I'd probably put Bama and OSU in the highest tier of true contenders going into the season.
3 Clemson Tigers A dominant defense that ranks amongst the best in the country. However, the offense needs something to kickstart it this year. There were issues almost everywhere on offense last year, from the OL to the WRs and especially the QB, if they want to be a playoff team this year then this offense will need to be better.
4 Baylor Bears Maybe I'm a bit high on this team despite it losing a few key contributors from a season ago. But they return enough from a team that was maybe one win away from making the playoffs for me to be optimistic. The Big 12 is wide open enough to where I would expect them to not only challenge for the title again but to also be favorites this time out.
5 Georgia Bulldogs A bit harsh for the reigning champs to be put outside of the top 4 but I think they need to show that the defense can reload after losing so much NFL talent from the roster. If they want to ascend to the Alabama tier of teams, then their recruiting will need to sustain the success they had last year.
6 Utah Utes Similar to Baylor, they lose a few key players but return most of a nearly CFP level team. The success of the team will rest primarily in the hands of their QB as he seeks to lead the Utes to the promised land.
7 Michigan Wolverines Michigan is coming off of a banner year where Harbaugh has finally overcome OSU. Last year was maybe Harbaugh's masterpiece, taking a team that wasn't even ranked heading into the season all the way to the playoffs. They lose some heavy hitters on that vaunted defense from last year, but the offense should be elite. The question is whether that offense can keep pace with the likes of OSU this time out without the defense that slowed them down a season ago.
8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish This is a tough team to predict, it's hard to deny that they benefited from a favorable schedule last year and will have a gauntlet to run through this time. However, they return a lot of talent and may have benefited from a coaching shake-up that brings in a new leader with new ideas. Maybe the change will bring Notre Dame to the promised land and maybe the schedule will weight them down. Should be a fun season.
9 NC State Wolfpack The defense should be one of the best units in the country and returns everyone from a year ago plus some returners from injuries. The offense is the big question after losing almost their entire rushing production and top WR alongside LT Ekwonu. They'll need someone to step up in the RB room and will rely heavily on QB Devin Leary's talent to bridge the gap of lost production.
10 Texas A&M Aggies This is a team with lots of variance in how high it can soar and how far it can fall. Just looking at last season, TAMU was taking down giants like Alabama but tripped up on too many pebbles to capitalize on that win to make a claim to the division title. This year there's some hope they can challenge Bama again with a new QB and a gluttony of blue chip talent, a defense that was elite a year ago though this time without its DC, and a hungry mentality that should give them a chance. How far they go is up to how well they prepare when the opponent isn't Bama.
11 Oklahoma Sooners OU similarly has a pretty high variance in where it can end up this season. Venables was an elite coordinator, but he'll need the team to mold into his scheme and playstyle quickly if OU is going to challenge for anything substantial this year. The talent is always there in Sooner country and he has one of the best offensive coordinators in the country at his side now, but we need to see how the team comes together following such a huge blindside and scramble to keep things together.
12 BYU Cougars BYU has a tough schedule which can be both a blessing and a curse for their program. It allows them to make a claim to the CFP if they can go undefeated and bring down some of the elite teams on their slate. But losses will weigh heavy on them if they can't make it count with this team. They have talent on both sides of the ball and can take it to nearly anyone in the country, but how they perform with so much on the line is yet to be seen.
13 Michigan State Spartans Losing Kenneth Walker is a tough pill to swallow but there's enough strength remaining on the offense to expect the Spartans to still be able to deal some damage to opposing defenses. I'm not sure I trust the defense still with the egregious secondary issues seen a season ago, but if that flaw gets just a bit less fatal then they should have another great season.
14 Oregon Ducks After last year, it's hard to trust Oregon. A great start to the season, beating OSU on the road, made me super optimistic for them but then they just kept struggling against foes they should easily best and eventually fell in increasingly horrific fashion, including two blowout losses to Utah. Similar to what I said for Notre Dame, maybe a coaching change will bring some new energy and ideas to get this team playing at their full potential finally.
15 Pittsburgh Panthers They've lost both Pickett and Addison alongside their OC. That's a really harsh blow to the reigning ACC champions, but the team is still swimming in returning talent which should make them a contender yet again with a wide open ACC Coastal division. Their biggest challengers have gotten stronger but if they can make full use of their defense and reload quickly on offense, they should still be the division favorites.
16 USC Trojans The addition of Lincoln Riley and most of his OU staff gives USC a very high ceiling this year. They should be vastly improved this season and will be challenging for the PAC 12 title, but it's hard not to think there will be some first year kinks to work out in the team. Riley has all of the tools to make this a comfortable transition but the PAC 12 has ways to cannibalize teams we expect to be good and I think this USC team has enough weaknesses to fall prey to the chaos.
17 Wake Forest Demon Deacons After a banner year for the Deacs, the team returns virtually the whole squad and will look to repeat as Atlantic division champs. However, they will be without Hartman for an uncertain amount of time and face a tougher conference slate this time around. These combined factors drop them a bit in the preseason rankings, but they have more than enough opportunity to rise up as well if they can persevere through it all.
18 Houston Cougars Houston is my favorite to win the AAC, they return a veteran squad with lots of talent and a solid HC and they get an easier conference slate than their biggest competitors for the conference in UCF and Cincinnati. The only thing that holds them back is the lack of any ranked teams on the schedule, there's really nowhere right now for them to get a marquee win and a lot of places for them to slip up. Winning will cure their low ranking, but it will be tough to climb into the highest tier of teams without some help.
19 Oklahoma State Cowboys After such a great year this may be an overreaction, but the defense loses its DC and may not be quite the unit it was last year. The offense should be really good but in the Big 12 that's not a huge advantage like a great defense was. The Big 12 is wide open though and they absolutely could return to the title game if the defense doesn't experience a huge drop off and the offense comes along as expected.
20 Cincinnati Bearcats Cincy falls pretty far as well after being the first G5 playoff team just a season ago. It's primarily due to the loss of so much NFL talent at once that they fall so far. However, they've been recruiting at a very high level and still have an absolute ace at head coach. I expect them to once again challenge for control of the AAC and potentially be the G5 NY6 representative if they reload quickly.
21 Iowa Hawkeyes The Hawkeyes were able to fly all the way to a top 5 spot last year off the backs of an absolute juggernaut of a defense. However, the offense, ironically, couldn't do anything in the air last year. The lack of offensive versatility was a death blow and, unfortunately, that doesn't seem to have been entirely rectified. But the defense should still be really good and I'm willing to give them a bit of the benefit of the doubt.
22 Ole Miss Rebels Ole Miss loses an elite QB who carried the team at times last year and the OC who made the offense flow so well. Without those two, it's hard to see Ole Miss being the team it was last season. The defense may be a bit stronger with a new DC at the helm and some new faces, but the offense seems to be caught in the chaos of so much change. With no clear QB1 and a lot of questions to answer, it's hard to put the Rebels inside the top 20.
23 Arkansas Razorbacks Arkansas showed a ton of promise last year that built into the best Arkansas season in recent memory. But they are now on a new mission; they need to build on that success and sustain it. The SEC West has several promising teams and Alabama so it will not be an easy task, but if they can overcome the challenges and not slip up in some of the places they tripped last year they could be a challenger in the division.
24 Wisconsin Badgers A really good defense and no clear answer at QB. Must be a Wisconsin team. The defense should be as stout as every with the only questions possibly being in the secondary, but even those are areas that should be above average compared to the average P5 team. Where Wisconsin will live or die is in the offense where they need to find a QB to take the reigns and play solid football. They don't need to be elite necessarily, they just have to be able to keep the offense moving to give the defense an assist. Scoring would be nice as well. Until Wisconsin answers the QB question, it's tough to place them much higher for me.
25 Miami Hurricanes Miami rounds out the top 25 on the back of QB TVD who promises to be a special talent if his limited playing time last year was any indication. His weapons are limited with questions at WR and his OL isn't expected to be anything too special. If the offense wants to run, it needs TVD to carry it and bring out every drop of talent on that roster. On the other side, the defense has been a mess and that needs to change if Miami is going to take control of the Coastal division and especially if they want to finally win the conference. A new HC might change things for the better, but Cristobal has struggled to utilize the talent he gets to its potential before. I think fringe top 25 is a good spot for Miami before we learn more about who they are this year.

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