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noahthearc Ballot for 2022 Preseason

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Aug. 15, 2022, 9:56 a.m.

Overall Rationale: My poll this year is a hybrid based on power rankings from the end of the season, recruiting, and returning production. The power rankings were created by weighing certain team stats, turnover margin, and win-loss record (source: NCAA). The points from those stats were then reduced based on the percentage of returning production. Points were assigned based on team's 2022 recruiting both freshman and transfer talent (source: 24/7). Minor deductions were made for new head coaches. These were combined to create what is meant to reflect incoming talent mixed with returning talent.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 166.7 points -> Title Favorite. Return a good amount of production on both sides of the ball, top tier recruiting as always, top tier transfers, and continuity in coaching.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 163.3 points -> Title Favorite. Similar to the Crimson Tide, but just a bit less in production last season.
3 Michigan Wolverines 148.8 points -> Title Contender. Large gulf between the Wolverines and Buckeyes. Big loss of production defensively, but good continuity from the offense. Strong recruiting and decent transfers.
4 Georgia Bulldogs 145.0 points -> Title Contender. Lack of transfers and huge losses in production. Still a strong possibility this team can compete for the SEC and another title.
5 Houston Cougars 136.9 points -> Title Pretender. An obvious standout, but one built on underappreciated production last year, good recruiting and transfers, and coaching continuity. Likely overvalued in the preseason, but a team that could make a NY6 bowl.
6 Oklahoma Sooners 131.8 points -> NY6 Favorite. First year coach with a lot returning on defense and a lot of young talent to work with. Recruiting and transfers were solid, as well. Sooners should be well positioned to play for their conference title and a NY6 bowl.
7 Cincinnati Bearcats 129.3 points -> NY6 Favorite. By the numbers, the Bearcats should be able to compete for their conference title and a NY6 bowl. Certainly some production losses from the Playoff appearance last season, but still a significant bit returning.
8 Mississippi State Bulldogs 128.1 points -> NY6 Favorite. The Bulldogs are helped by high amounts of returning production, solid recruiting and transfers, and coaching continuity. If they weren't in the SEC West, they'd seem a lock for a NY6 bowl by the numbers.
9 BYU Cougars 127.8 points -> NY6 Favorite. This whole favorites list is gonna seem absurd, but BYU just missed the lead in returning production and has 97% of their defensive production coming back this year. A tough schedule awaits, though.
10 Arkansas Razorbacks 127.3 points -> NY6 Favorite. Another team with a fair bit of production returning and good offseason additions that positions them well. The SEC West is as crowded as ever and the path to a NY6 is going to be very rocky.
11 Kentucky Wildcats 124.7 points -> NY6 Contender. By most measures, Kentucky should be the real challenge to Georgia hegemony over the SEC East.
12 Fresno State Bulldogs 124.1 points -> NY6 Contender. Probably the best team in California this upcoming season, the Bulldogs may be able to shock their way to a NY6.
13 Pittsburgh Panthers 124.0 points -> NY6 Favorite. As the highest rated team in a P5 conference and thus the favorite to win the conference, Pitt gets the moniker of NY6 Favorite. If Slovis is for real, Pitt may have a great team again this year.
14 NC State Wolfpack 122.9 points -> NY6 Contender. Lots of excitement based on their returning production, the Wolfpack could finally breakthrough in the ACC.
15 Michigan State Spartans 122.3 points -> NY6 Contender. By the numbers, Michigan State overachieved last year. This year, they may match their expectations by staying about as good as last year's run.
16 Ole Miss Rebels 120.9 points -> NY6 Contender. By this metric the fourth team in the SEC West, but probably the eyeball favorite to finish 2nd in the division and head to another NY6.
17 Baylor Bears 120.8 points -> NY6 Contender. Could be another great year for the Bear. They should be able to compete for a spot in the Big 12 title game, where they could pull off some magic again.
18 Utah Utes 120.6 points -> NY6 Favorite. The top team and only ranked team in the PAC, the Utes bring back a good team with solid additions. Big test in week one to prove their merits.
19 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 118.4 points -> NY6 Contender. The season could go a lot of ways for the Irish. Their fans think they have a team that's worthy of a NY6, but the metric has them on the fringe of competing for a NY6. Probably an absolute floor of 7-5 with an absolute ceiling of 11-1 and a likely 8-4 or 9-3.
20 Texas A&M Aggies 116.1 points -> NY6 Contender. A team that feels better than the ranking, but somehow ends up underachieving and in this range anyways.
21 Purdue Boilermakers 115.7 points -> NY6 Contender. Could be a shocker out of the B1G West. By the metric, the best team in the division, but only narrowly.
22 Tennessee Volunteers 112.7 points -> Bowl Lock. Good returning production on offense should lead to an electric season for that group.
23 Wisconsin Badgers 112.5 points -> Bowl Lock. Steady consistent.
24 UTSA Roadrunners 112.1 points -> Bowl Lock. Great group returning large amounts of production.
25 Clemson Tigers 111.6 points -> Bowl Lock. Underwhelming season last year, but every possibility of climbing back to the top echelons.

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