Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Aug. 15, 2022, 9:56 a.m.
Overall Rationale: My poll this year is a hybrid based on power rankings from the end of the season, recruiting, and returning production. The power rankings were created by weighing certain team stats, turnover margin, and win-loss record (source: NCAA). The points from those stats were then reduced based on the percentage of returning production. Points were assigned based on team's 2022 recruiting both freshman and transfer talent (source: 24/7). Minor deductions were made for new head coaches. These were combined to create what is meant to reflect incoming talent mixed with returning talent.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 166.7 points -> Title Favorite. Return a good amount of production on both sides of the ball, top tier recruiting as always, top tier transfers, and continuity in coaching. |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 163.3 points -> Title Favorite. Similar to the Crimson Tide, but just a bit less in production last season. |
3 | Michigan Wolverines | 148.8 points -> Title Contender. Large gulf between the Wolverines and Buckeyes. Big loss of production defensively, but good continuity from the offense. Strong recruiting and decent transfers. |
4 | Georgia Bulldogs | 145.0 points -> Title Contender. Lack of transfers and huge losses in production. Still a strong possibility this team can compete for the SEC and another title. |
5 | Houston Cougars | 136.9 points -> Title Pretender. An obvious standout, but one built on underappreciated production last year, good recruiting and transfers, and coaching continuity. Likely overvalued in the preseason, but a team that could make a NY6 bowl. |
6 | Oklahoma Sooners | 131.8 points -> NY6 Favorite. First year coach with a lot returning on defense and a lot of young talent to work with. Recruiting and transfers were solid, as well. Sooners should be well positioned to play for their conference title and a NY6 bowl. |
7 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 129.3 points -> NY6 Favorite. By the numbers, the Bearcats should be able to compete for their conference title and a NY6 bowl. Certainly some production losses from the Playoff appearance last season, but still a significant bit returning. |
8 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 128.1 points -> NY6 Favorite. The Bulldogs are helped by high amounts of returning production, solid recruiting and transfers, and coaching continuity. If they weren't in the SEC West, they'd seem a lock for a NY6 bowl by the numbers. |
9 | BYU Cougars | 127.8 points -> NY6 Favorite. This whole favorites list is gonna seem absurd, but BYU just missed the lead in returning production and has 97% of their defensive production coming back this year. A tough schedule awaits, though. |
10 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 127.3 points -> NY6 Favorite. Another team with a fair bit of production returning and good offseason additions that positions them well. The SEC West is as crowded as ever and the path to a NY6 is going to be very rocky. |
11 | Kentucky Wildcats | 124.7 points -> NY6 Contender. By most measures, Kentucky should be the real challenge to Georgia hegemony over the SEC East. |
12 | Fresno State Bulldogs | 124.1 points -> NY6 Contender. Probably the best team in California this upcoming season, the Bulldogs may be able to shock their way to a NY6. |
13 | Pittsburgh Panthers | 124.0 points -> NY6 Favorite. As the highest rated team in a P5 conference and thus the favorite to win the conference, Pitt gets the moniker of NY6 Favorite. If Slovis is for real, Pitt may have a great team again this year. |
14 | NC State Wolfpack | 122.9 points -> NY6 Contender. Lots of excitement based on their returning production, the Wolfpack could finally breakthrough in the ACC. |
15 | Michigan State Spartans | 122.3 points -> NY6 Contender. By the numbers, Michigan State overachieved last year. This year, they may match their expectations by staying about as good as last year's run. |
16 | Ole Miss Rebels | 120.9 points -> NY6 Contender. By this metric the fourth team in the SEC West, but probably the eyeball favorite to finish 2nd in the division and head to another NY6. |
17 | Baylor Bears | 120.8 points -> NY6 Contender. Could be another great year for the Bear. They should be able to compete for a spot in the Big 12 title game, where they could pull off some magic again. |
18 | Utah Utes | 120.6 points -> NY6 Favorite. The top team and only ranked team in the PAC, the Utes bring back a good team with solid additions. Big test in week one to prove their merits. |
19 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 118.4 points -> NY6 Contender. The season could go a lot of ways for the Irish. Their fans think they have a team that's worthy of a NY6, but the metric has them on the fringe of competing for a NY6. Probably an absolute floor of 7-5 with an absolute ceiling of 11-1 and a likely 8-4 or 9-3. |
20 | Texas A&M Aggies | 116.1 points -> NY6 Contender. A team that feels better than the ranking, but somehow ends up underachieving and in this range anyways. |
21 | Purdue Boilermakers | 115.7 points -> NY6 Contender. Could be a shocker out of the B1G West. By the metric, the best team in the division, but only narrowly. |
22 | Tennessee Volunteers | 112.7 points -> Bowl Lock. Good returning production on offense should lead to an electric season for that group. |
23 | Wisconsin Badgers | 112.5 points -> Bowl Lock. Steady consistent. |
24 | UTSA Roadrunners | 112.1 points -> Bowl Lock. Great group returning large amounts of production. |
25 | Clemson Tigers | 111.6 points -> Bowl Lock. Underwhelming season last year, but every possibility of climbing back to the top echelons. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.00 |
3 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.47 |
4 | Georgia Bulldogs | -0.75 |
5 | Houston Cougars | 3.59 |
6 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.27 |
7 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 1.22 |
8 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 15.45 |
9 | BYU Cougars | 2.80 |
10 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 1.23 |
11 | Kentucky Wildcats | 1.47 |
12 | Fresno State Bulldogs | 12.79 |
13 | Pittsburgh Panthers | 0.70 |
14 | NC State Wolfpack | 0.00 |
15 | Michigan State Spartans | 0.00 |
16 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.41 |
17 | Baylor Bears | -0.56 |
18 | Utah Utes | -1.87 |
19 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -2.88 |
20 | Texas A&M Aggies | -1.86 |
21 | Purdue Boilermakers | 4.05 |
22 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
23 | Wisconsin Badgers | -0.26 |
24 | UTSA Roadrunners | 0.95 |
25 | Clemson Tigers | -3.58 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Oklahoma State Cowboys | 2.47 |
Oregon Ducks | 1.66 |
USC Trojans | 0.57 |
Miami Hurricanes | 0.50 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 0.26 |
Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.09 |
Total Score: 62.70