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NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2022 Preseason

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Aug. 18, 2022, 10:06 p.m.

Overall Rationale: This poll predicts the maximum a priori Bradley-Terry ratings. Each FBS and FCS team is given the same prior distribution. Then, the join distribution of ratings is updated with the results of played games, as well as win probabilities of future games. Games against non-Division I teams are ignored. The future probabilities are estimated from win/loss data from the previous and current seasons, with a home field advantage adjustment. Since all teams are given the same prior ratings distribution, teams are rewarded for having a good record, especially if they play teams with high ratings. This is why my rankings give the benefit of the doubt to teams in weaker conferences with a good record.

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