NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2022 Preseason
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Aug. 18, 2022, 10:06 p.m.
Overall Rationale: This poll predicts the maximum a priori Bradley-Terry ratings. Each FBS and FCS team is given the same prior distribution. Then, the join distribution of ratings is updated with the results of played games, as well as win probabilities of future games. Games against non-Division I teams are ignored. The future probabilities are estimated from win/loss data from the previous and current seasons, with a home field advantage adjustment. Since all teams are given the same prior ratings distribution, teams are rewarded for having a good record, especially if they play teams with high ratings. This is why my rankings give the benefit of the doubt to teams in weaker conferences with a good record.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
32.71 |
| 2 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
30.35 |
| 3 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
28.62 |
| 4 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
26.28 |
| 5 |
Baylor Bears
|
25.63 |
| 6 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
25.57 |
| 7 |
Michigan State Spartans
|
25.52 |
| 8 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
25.49 |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
23.51 |
| 10 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
23.17 |
| 11 |
North Dakota State Bison
|
22.43 |
| 12 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
21.52 |
| 13 |
Clemson Tigers
|
20.68 |
| 14 |
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
|
19.77 |
| 15 |
San Diego State Aztecs
|
19.30 |
| 16 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
19.02 |
| 17 |
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
18.16 |
| 18 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
17.66 |
| 19 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
17.64 |
| 20 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
17.60 |
| 21 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
17.54 |
| 22 |
Montana State Bobcats
|
16.93 |
| 23 |
Houston Cougars
|
16.42 |
| 24 |
Oregon Ducks
|
16.25 |
| 25 |
UTSA Roadrunners
|
16.24 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.75 |
| 2 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.47 |
| 4 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
1.14 |
| 5 |
Baylor Bears
|
0.57 |
| 6 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
1.40 |
| 7 |
Michigan State Spartans
|
1.13 |
| 8 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
-3.49 |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-0.06 |
| 11 |
North Dakota State Bison
|
14.18 |
| 12 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.33 |
| 13 |
Clemson Tigers
|
-0.68 |
| 14 |
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
|
10.95 |
| 15 |
San Diego State Aztecs
|
10.04 |
| 16 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
0.80 |
| 17 |
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.63 |
| 19 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Montana State Bobcats
|
3.23 |
| 23 |
Houston Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-1.23 |
| 25 |
UTSA Roadrunners
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Utah Utes
|
3.94 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
3.30 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
1.51 |
USC Trojans
|
0.57 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.50 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.09 |
Total Score: 61.99