Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Aug. 18, 2022, 8:36 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Preseason is a crapshoot, but I tend to weight returning production and coaching continuity. It's not perfect, but I have a long list of "teams to watch": SMU, SDSU, Boise, Texas, USU, Miami, Wake, Tenn, Miss, FSU, App, TCU, Stan, USC, Minn (among others). We'll see!
Rank | Team | Reason |
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1 |
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Extraordinary season and they return a solid set; extremely dominant but for the sole loss; coaching staff intact; excellent recruiting. There's no reason to drop UGA. |
2 |
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Great season and more returning than any other similar team; extremely dominant but for the losses; lost DC; excellent recruiting. OSU has a case for #1 but I'll wait and see. |
3 |
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Great season and a good chunk return; dominant, but not overly; coaching staff (stunningly) intact; #1 in recruiting. Alabama and Georgia are likely going to meet in the SECCG again and it's almost a toss-up. |
4 |
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Great season and a good chunk return; unlucky (3 single-possession losses); long-term coaching staff; good recruiting. Utah is far from perfect but there are fewer questions about them than most every team below. |
5 |
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Great season (especially the back half) and a lot return; fairly lucky (5-2 in one possession games); lost both OC and DC; excellent recruiting. I don't entirely believe in Clemson given their coaching losses, but it's hard to bet against Dabo. |
6 |
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Great season until the UGA buzzsaw; decent returning production; moderately lucky; lost DC; excellent recruiting. Overall fewer questions than the below, but losses to coaching staff and personnel will hurt. |
7 |
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Great season and solid chunk returns; lucky (5-1 in one possession); lost HC; excellent recruiting. Big questions about Venables, but talent is still there. |
8 |
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Great season and solid chunk returns; fairly dominant; lost HC; excellent recruiting. Big questions about Freeman, but talent is still there; OU is slightly higher as Venables has a longer track record. |
9 |
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Good season and decent amount returns; not dominant but not poor; lost DC; superb recruiting. This is the year - A&M has everything set up to challenge the uppermost echelon of the SEC, but they need to prove it. |
10 |
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Good season and large amount returns; not dominant but not poor; coaching staff intact; okay recruiting. If the coaching staff and personnel mesh well, NCSU could make a case for ACC's #1 and a CFP berth. |
11 |
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Good season and solid chunk returns; fairly lucky (4-2 in one possession); lost HC; excellent recruiting. Hard to determine where Lanning will end up, but should be good and the talent is there; not nearly as strong as teams above. |
12 |
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Great season but not a ton of returners; lucky (6-2 in one possession); lost DC; great recruiting. Gundy is a known quantity and it's hard to see Oklahoma State overperforming, especially due to personnel losses. Still, Big 12 championship should be the only goal. |
13 |
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Great season but not a lot of returners; fairly dominant; lost OC; good recruiting. Similar to Oklahoma State but we haven't seen Fickell long-term and Cincy lost a *lot.* Many questions, but overall should be a ten-win season as a goal. |
14 |
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Good season but not a lot of returners; fairly lucky (3-1 in one possession); lost OC; great recruiting. Wisconsin should be very similar to last year but it's hard to see a big jump forward. |
15 |
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Great season and solid chunk returns; lucky (4-0 in one possession); coaching staff intact; good recruiting. Very similar to Wisconsin but statistically wasn't nearly as good. Balances out with returning personnel; UW gets the nod for long-term performance. |
16 |
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Great season and solid chunk returns; lucky (4-0 in one possession); coaching staff intact; okay recruiting. Should be very good but ceiling is unknown. |
17 |
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Great season but loses a lot; lucky (4-1 in one possession); coaching staff intact; okay recruiting. Baylor lost a lot and it's hard to see if the replacements will be enough to make up. |
18 |
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Good season and a solid chunk returns; not dominant; coaching staff intact; good recruiting. Statistically, Arkansas was only just good, but if anyone will challenge Alabama in the west it'll be the piggies. |
19 |
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Great season and a solid chunk returns; not dominant; lost OC; okay recruiting. It's hard to see Pitt improving with both Whipple and QB Pickett gone, but if they've got a solution at QB the rest of the roster should fall in line. |
20 |
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Good season and almost everything returns; lucky (4-1 in one possession); coaching staff intact; average recruiting. If the returning players click, BYU could be great, but it's not guaranteed. |
21 |
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Good season and good amount returns; not dominant; lost DC; mediocre recruiting. Similar to BYU but talent isn't nearly there; should be MWC favorite. |
22 |
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Good season and solid chunk returns; not dominant; coaching staff intact; good recruiting. Purdue has some weapons, but statistically they weren't great; should be good, but probably not great. |
23 |
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Good season and good amount returns; not dominant; lost OC; average recruiting. Solid core of the team is intact and should be good, but other questions remain. |
24 |
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Decent season but loses some; dominant; lost DC; good recruiting. Waiting to see if the Kelly hire pays off - this should be the year. |
25 |
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Great season and a solid chunk returns; lucky (3-1 in one possession); lost DC; average recruiting. Statistically not great, but fewer questions than most other teams at this point. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.75 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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-0.89 |
4 |
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0.26 |
5 |
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0.00 |
6 |
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0.00 |
7 |
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0.01 |
8 |
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0.00 |
9 |
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0.00 |
10 |
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0.32 |
11 |
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0.08 |
12 |
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0.00 |
13 |
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0.15 |
14 |
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0.26 |
15 |
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0.00 |
16 |
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0.83 |
17 |
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-0.56 |
18 |
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0.00 |
19 |
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0.00 |
20 |
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0.00 |
21 |
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3.79 |
22 |
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3.05 |
23 |
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1.97 |
24 |
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0.97 |
25 |
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0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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0.57 |
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0.50 |
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0.56 |
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0.41 |
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0.09 |
Total Score: 16.01