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Tarmacked Ballot for 2026 Week 5

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 29, 2026, 10:27 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Mix of eye test, Sagarin, and other metrics (+/-, etc.).
Note: This is an early iteration and is much more fluid given lack of samples. This should shift significantly until week 5-6.

Rank Team Reason
1 Texas Longhorns No change - Some will want to move them due to the close score but Texas effectively dominated Faizon and his line the entire game.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes No change
3 Georgia Bulldogs No change
4 Alabama Crimson Tide I'm not sure what's going on but that's the third straight game where the offense has put up 40+ on P5 opponents. The bend don't break is leaving something to desire but the offensive ceiling here seems to be up there with the top 2-3 teams if all things are clicking. The question is if the defense can fall into place.
5 Miami Hurricanes Not really a change, just moreso resume at this point. See the above.
6 Florida Gators This is admitted a very massive, massive, swing in ranking. It's entirely possible we came in too low on Florida by having them unranked, but when you look at how they dominated Ole Miss (Matchup wise it was terrible for them) and Sagarin/FPI (Both putting them 9th in the country) it's hard not placing them top 10.
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Really just comes down to resume with Florida. SOR of 2 and SOS of 42 compared to ND's 12 and 99. Some might want to point at Wisconsin over PSU to argue against it but to be honest that PSU team is a Campbell lead Iowa State team in Nittany colors. I'm just not buying it, he didn't bounce around the carousel for years because he was a highly qualified guy and not the seventh best option any given year.
8 Ole Miss Rebels This is where this gets as bit weird. 4 spot drop for a blowout, yes. Big reason is Indiana just continues to underperform in my eyes relative to where they're ranked. I think Ole Miss has a higher ceiling and their body of work is still relatively solid (LSU/Louisville wins).
9 Indiana Hoosiers I'm leaving Northwestern as is, similar to where they were last week. Indiana though... this is now the third game where something is "off" and this was something I flagged last week in my poll. There's a lot of issues with this Indiana team that I think could rear it's head soon.
10 LSU Tigers No change, head to head is at play here but realistically the resume isn't equivalent anyway.
11 Oregon Ducks I still don't get the Oklahoma State shellacking, but Oregon has steadied the ship a bit this last week. They're here because the Big 12 keeps having lackluster games (Tech, Houston this week) against subpar competition. I don't think the Big 12 is in a similar stratosphere as the B1G, so i'm leaning on Oregon. Sagarin and FPI do support me here, having them ahead of Texas Tech, but SOR does not. I'll lean on the power metrics here because Tech hasn't beaten anyone that should move the needle for me.
12 Texas Tech Red Raiders Incredibly ugly first half against Sam Houston. It is what it is
13 BYU Cougars No change, did not play
14 Houston Cougars Georgia Southern really loved kicking around your defense after I stuck my neck out for you, huh? Come on Big 12, clean it up.
15 Mississippi State Bulldogs I had Mizzou as my 17th team last week and MSU as my 23rd. This feels pretty fair. I did not rank Mizzou this week and do a full swap of spots, largely because I just feel underwhelmed after that Troy game. Sagarin at 32 and FPI at 35 solidified that move for me.
16 Kentucky Wildcats No change, just felt Miss State had a better resume at this stage and A&M losing, again, to a higher quality opponent takes some shine off.
17 Iowa Hawkeyes On one hand, undefeated Iowa. On the other hand, that Michigan game was incredibly ugly and no one should brag about a Michigan win right now. I don't think they'll be world beaters as we get into the meat of the schedule, 8-4 seems about fair this year. Sagarin has them at 13, FPI at 25. Ultimately I just don't really see anything than the standard #15-#20 Iowa team here with a staunch defense. We'll see where this goes.
18 Tennessee Volunteers Ugly offensive game, Freshman in the fire. Defense played really well in my opinion. Similar to Iowa i'm feeling that 20~ range, however FPI and Sagarin are both putting them 11. It did not feel like it should've been 17-20 but far larger.
19 Northwestern Wildcats Look at that, Northwestern and Chip Kelly had some fire in them! I don't think this in punishable territory, feels like the 20's boundaries are the right spot.
20 Boise State Broncos Oregon is recovering, Boise is dominating their G5 competition. So far so good.
21 USC Trojans Defense continues to look utterly horrendous at times. Offense looks competent. They're moving only 3-4 spots down this week, largely because (1) we were super negative on them to begin with, and (2) that offense will likely prop them to an 8-9 win talent team as it stands. This is pretty par with computers, (18th FPI, 22nd Sagarin) so i'm a bit more comfortable here.
22 UCLA Bruins Purdue was not a blowout, which is why i'm not swinging them further up from prior week. Similar to USC it feels like you have your standard 20-30 rank team holes here.
23 Pittsburgh Panthers Computers like them, it's a bit weird but now we're getting into that flawed 20-30's range where you could make arguments for a dozen teams. This area should flesh out better with more conference play, because even Pitt isn't immune to some ugly wins (12-7 over UCF).
24 Utah Utes THEY HAVEN'T PLAYED ANYONE PAWLLL. Well yeah, but they're 4-0 and it's an okay slate of teams. I'd rather reward them over SMU with that Missouri State game I had to sit through.
25 Clemson Tigers Compared to the echelon of Nebraska, Virginia, SMU, it feels like a muddy last spot. The true freshman QB is improving and getting more reps, the defense is showing up. Maybe LSU was just a bad day but who knows. Lets see how this play out in the following weeks, it feels destined that Clemson stumbles into a top 3 ACC finish with their roster talent this year.

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