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LookAtMaxwell Ballot for 2026 Week 5

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 28, 2026, 7:58 p.m.

Overall Rationale: A computer ballot. Monte Carlo of a multiple elimination bracket. Teams are randomly seeded. Wins in the bracket are assigned first by head-to-head performance on the field. Second by transitive wins, Third by simulation. Teams are ranked first by their median ranking, then by their average ranking. This early in the season it is expected that there will still be a lot of movement since no priors are incorporated.

Rank Team Reason
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Beat Wisconsin 41-13 at a neutral site, Rice 52-0, Michigan State 27-10 and Purdue 49-10 on the road. Its 12 rule wins include two top-25 teams: Wisconsin directly, and Penn State through Wisconsin. It has allowed 33 points in four games, the best defense in the model, which expects it to win about 35-12 against a typical opponent. That makes it a 94% favorite against the rest of the top 25, and it finishes ahead of #2 in 84% of brackets, the clearest gap in the rankings.
2 Miami Hurricanes Won 45-6 at Stanford, 33-20 at Wake Forest, and 52-3 over Central Michigan, plus an FCS win. It has 11 rule wins but none over ranked teams, so its place comes from dominant margins, two of them on the road: 82% against the top 25. Miami and Utah are effectively tied: Miami finishes ahead in only 53% of brackets.
3 Utah Utes Beat Arkansas 43-10, Utah State 33-0, and Iowa State 31-17 on the road, plus an FCS win. It has 8 rule wins, none over top-25 teams. Its profile is nearly identical to Miami's: expected about 35-15, 81% against the top 25.
4 Texas Longhorns It has the best actual results in the top 5, wins over #5 Ohio State and #21 Tennessee, so it beats both in every bracket. But those wins came by 1 and 3 points, so the model rates it a bit lower in simulated games (71% against the top 25). It's alone in tier 3 (*The model assigns tiers to groups of teams by identifying gaps between adjacent ranked teams)
5 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State (3-1, Big Ten top team). Its only loss is 24-23 at Texas, so its only rule loss is to Texas. It won its other games 56-3, 59-3 and 42-19. The model rates it about as highly as Texas on scoring (73% against the top 25), which is why it's the highest-ranked team with a loss.
6 Georgia Bulldogs
7 Alabama Crimson Tide
8 Penn State Nittany Lions Lost 24-20 to Wisconsin but won its other games 45-0, 27-9 and 55-13. It has the best defense after Notre Dame.
9 LSU Tigers
10 Nebraska Cornhuskers Won every game by 18 or more, including 31-13 at Michigan State.
11 Florida Gators
12 Indiana Hoosiers
13 Mississippi State Bulldogs
14 UCLA Bruins Big margins (54-3 at Maryland), though against weak opponents.
15 Iowa Hawkeyes
16 Pittsburgh Panthers
17 James Madison Dukes Beat Liberty 20-13, won 26-13 at San Diego State and 46-20 at Old Dominion, plus an FCS win. It has no rule losses, and its three FBS wins, two on the road, are solid. But none of those opponents is ranked, so it's a 34% underdog against the top 25
18 Boise State Broncos Its loss was 34-27 at #23 Oregon, which also gives it rule losses to Oklahoma State and Tulsa through the chain. Wins over Memphis (38-20) and at Western Michigan (32-7) keep it the Pac-12's best, with a 36% chance against the top 25
19 Northwestern Wildcats Lost at Indiana by 6 and beat Colorado 41-7; the score model rates it highly.
20 UMass Minutemen Won 37-21 at Rutgers and 35-6 at Sacramento State; its other two wins are over FCS teams. With only two FBS wins it has just 2 rule wins, and it ranks this high mainly on those margins. It's the thinnest résumé in the top 25, so expect it to move a lot once MAC play starts
21 Tennessee Volunteers
22 Wisconsin Badgers
23 Oregon Ducks
24 New Mexico Lobos New Mexico (3-1, Mountain West). It lost 14-6 at Oklahoma, and through chains that loss also gives it rule losses to Georgia, Iowa and Michigan. Wins over Central Michigan (38-7) and at New Mexico State (42-18) keep it just ahead of fellow Mountain West team North Dakota State (#25). The two are a coin flip: New Mexico finishes ahead in only 51% of brackets
25 North Dakota State Bison

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