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MADBuc49 Ballot for 2026 Week 5

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 28, 2026, 2:03 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Week 5 notes: some dramatic changes in some areas due to small data set, will equalize as we get more games in; updated Deservedness formulas to include specific P4/G6 allowances compared against the other, will update General Notes. General Notes: Methodology: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P4/G6 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P4 teams play 2 fewer P4 games than another P4 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P4 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P4 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P4 teams play 6 fewer P4 games than a G6 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P4 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P4 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse) unless the P4 team plays 0 P4 games then it is 7; G6 teams play 9 fewer P4 teams than a P4 team (ex: 9-3 South Carolina plays 10 P4 games, 11-1 Boise State plays 1 P4 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 South Carolina can be ranked over 11-1 Boise State); or G6 teams play 2 fewer P4 games than another G6 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P4 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P4 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/9/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P4 game played difference in that scenario. Further allowances given when a P4 team plays 8-9 P4 games and when a G6 team plays 0 P4 games (no P4 non-cons).

Rank Team Reason
1 Texas Longhorns +0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Indiana/#9 Ole Miss in the Orange Bowl
2 Ohio State Buckeyes +0. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Florida/#10 LSU in the Rose Bowl
3 Georgia Bulldogs +3. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Notre Dame/#11 Utah in the Peach Bowl
4 Miami Hurricanes -1. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Alabama/#12 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl
5 Alabama Crimson Tide +3. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Boise State in the first round
6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +4. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 Utah in the first round
7 Florida Gators +5. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 LSU in the first round
8 Indiana Hoosiers -1. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Ole Miss in the first round
9 Ole Miss Rebels -5. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Indiana in the first round
10 LSU Tigers -5. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Florida in the first round
11 Mississippi State Bulldogs -2
12 UCLA Bruins +3
13 Duke Blue Devils +1
14 Utah Utes +2. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Notre Dame in the first round
15 Texas Tech Red Raiders +2
16 BYU Cougars +2
17 Wake Forest Demon Deacons NEW
18 Northwestern Wildcats +1
19 Auburn Tigers +1
20 Houston Cougars +2
21 Virginia Tech Hokies +2
22 Tennessee Volunteers +2
23 Iowa Hawkeyes +2
24 SMU Mustangs -11
25 Pittsburgh Panthers NEW. Boise State would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Alabama in the first round

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