Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Sept. 28, 2026, 2:03 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 5 notes: some dramatic changes in some areas due to small data set, will equalize as we get more games in; updated Deservedness formulas to include specific P4/G6 allowances compared against the other, will update General Notes. General Notes: Methodology: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P4/G6 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P4 teams play 2 fewer P4 games than another P4 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P4 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P4 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P4 teams play 6 fewer P4 games than a G6 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P4 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P4 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse) unless the P4 team plays 0 P4 games then it is 7; G6 teams play 9 fewer P4 teams than a P4 team (ex: 9-3 South Carolina plays 10 P4 games, 11-1 Boise State plays 1 P4 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 South Carolina can be ranked over 11-1 Boise State); or G6 teams play 2 fewer P4 games than another G6 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P4 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P4 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/9/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P4 game played difference in that scenario. Further allowances given when a P4 team plays 8-9 P4 games and when a G6 team plays 0 P4 games (no P4 non-cons).
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Texas Longhorns
|
+0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Indiana/#9 Ole Miss in the Orange Bowl |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
+0. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Florida/#10 LSU in the Rose Bowl |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
+3. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Notre Dame/#11 Utah in the Peach Bowl |
| 4 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-1. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Alabama/#12 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl |
| 5 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
+3. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Boise State in the first round |
| 6 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
+4. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 Utah in the first round |
| 7 |
Florida Gators
|
+5. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 LSU in the first round |
| 8 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
-1. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Ole Miss in the first round |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-5. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Indiana in the first round |
| 10 |
LSU Tigers
|
-5. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Florida in the first round |
| 11 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
-2 |
| 12 |
UCLA Bruins
|
+3 |
| 13 |
Duke Blue Devils
|
+1 |
| 14 |
Utah Utes
|
+2. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Notre Dame in the first round |
| 15 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
+2 |
| 16 |
BYU Cougars
|
+2 |
| 17 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
NEW |
| 18 |
Northwestern Wildcats
|
+1 |
| 19 |
Auburn Tigers
|
+1 |
| 20 |
Houston Cougars
|
+2 |
| 21 |
Virginia Tech Hokies
|
+2 |
| 22 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
+2 |
| 23 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
+2 |
| 24 |
SMU Mustangs
|
-11 |
| 25 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
NEW. Boise State would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Alabama in the first round |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.45 |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-0.08 |
| 7 |
Florida Gators
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.30 |
| 10 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.14 |
| 11 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
UCLA Bruins
|
0.52 |
| 13 |
Duke Blue Devils
|
0.90 |
| 14 |
Utah Utes
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
-0.10 |
| 16 |
BYU Cougars
|
-0.26 |
| 17 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
4.17 |
| 18 |
Northwestern Wildcats
|
6.91 |
| 19 |
Auburn Tigers
|
3.82 |
| 20 |
Houston Cougars
|
0.38 |
| 21 |
Virginia Tech Hokies
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
-2.07 |
| 24 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Oregon Ducks
|
1.38 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.40 |
USC Trojans
|
0.32 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
0.11 |
Total Score: 22.33