/r/CFB Poll

Overall Rationale: Computer poll that best explains all results in the current season (a maximum-likelihood estimate), balancing the strength of each team's best wins against its worst losses. The underlying probability model is an Elo-style logistic curve P[A > B] = 1/(1+10^[(B-A)/400]). The ranking is based only on this season's wins and losses: previous seasons, conferences and divisions, etc. are not considered. Every week is counted equally. Lower divisions are included in the calculations, but the top 25 is filtered to FBS teams. A tie counts as ½ W + ½ L. For the MLE to converge, I add two fictitious teams, one who has beaten everyone and one who has lost to everyone, then stretch the gap between them to infinity. The teams gather into groups between the two, characterized by a Group Score for each group and relative Team Scores within each group. Group Scores respect the transitive property: no team in a lower group has beaten a team in a higher group. For each team in a group, I've listed the computed balance between wins and losses to yield its Team Score. The full ranking can be found at <https://gist.github.com/LegionMammal978/cc3c280ed0d21c9e8dbac7bed429c554>. All data is sourced from CollegeFootballData.com. NOTE: For this week, I've used the previous season's final ranking as an arbitrary tiebreaker for the /r/CFB Poll.

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Indiana Hoosiers	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
2	Oregon Ducks	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
3	Texas Tech Red Raiders	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
5	Ole Miss Rebels	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
6	Georgia Bulldogs	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
7	Miami Hurricanes	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
8	BYU Cougars	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
9	Alabama Crimson Tide	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
10	Texas Longhorns	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
11	Texas A&M Aggies	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
12	Oklahoma Sooners	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
13	Utah Utes	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
14	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
15	Iowa Hawkeyes	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
16	Vanderbilt Commodores	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
17	USC Trojans	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
18	Tulane Green Wave	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
19	Michigan Wolverines	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
20	Illinois Fighting Illini	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
21	Navy Midshipmen	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
22	Houston Cougars	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
23	TCU Horned Frogs	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
24	North Texas Mean Green	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.
25	Washington Huskies	[T1.] Group Score .500, Team Score 0.

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Indiana Hoosiers	0.40
2	Oregon Ducks	0.00
3	Texas Tech Red Raiders	1.42
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	-0.39
5	Ole Miss Rebels	0.68
6	Georgia Bulldogs	-0.12
7	Miami Hurricanes	0.00
8	BYU Cougars	0.73
9	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.25
10	Texas Longhorns	-0.48
11	Texas A&M Aggies	0.00
12	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
13	Utah Utes	0.85
14	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-2.02
15	Iowa Hawkeyes	1.54
16	Vanderbilt Commodores	4.83
17	USC Trojans	0.00
18	Tulane Green Wave	6.73
19	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
20	Illinois Fighting Illini	2.26
21	Navy Midshipmen	3.90
22	Houston Cougars	0.00
23	TCU Horned Frogs	2.03
24	North Texas Mean Green	1.00
25	Washington Huskies	-0.69

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
LSU Tigers	1.69
SMU Mustangs	0.79
Tennessee Volunteers	0.59
Penn State Nittany Lions	0.53
Louisville Cardinals	0.29
Missouri Tigers	0.06

Total Score: 34.26

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