Back to poll results >>

BosskOnASegway Ballot for 2026 Preseason

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Aug. 12, 2026, 4:55 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Returning to a fully computer poll for the first time in many years as I finally found a way to improve on my old Most Likely ELO model in a way I liked and gave reasonable preseason polls. No home field advantages or conference preweighting.

The new model starts by computing MLE (most likely elo) for 2025. Most Likely Elo now use the new replacement for my old normalized margin of victory with a skewed Bradley-Terry clipping margin of victory/loss at 14 and treating all wins as a minimum of a 4 point win but not extending that symmetrically to losses. This rewards close wins a bit more without penalizing the loser as harshly and new clipping prevents consistently blowing out bad teams to dominate. This same algorithm will be used on 2026 games as they play

Once the 2025 Elos are computed, we compute the standard deviation for elos. Next we take the % of snaps returning and compute a z-score. We rescale this zscore so the max retention is 0 and all others are positive numbers relative to that z-score. We subtract the standard deviation of elos times retention z-score from the 2025 elos to represent uncertainty from lost players.

Finally, we use on3 recruiting rankings and compute z-scores there as well. This time using the lowest score as the 0. We add 30% the std of elos times this z-score to reward strong recruiting classes. This gives what appears to be a reasonable top 25.

Over the next 5 weeks we will take weighted averages of this frozen score and the 2026 elos weight of preseason dropping 20% each week and current season growing 20%.

It is worth noting this makes retention incredibly important as the last few years have shown retention can lead to outsized performance.

Here is the top 30 breakdown:

Rank_V3 Team_NCAA Team_CBS Team_Recruit original_elo CBS_pct_return CBS_z_retained CBS_delta CBS_preseason Recruit_score Recruit_z Recruit_delta_30pct Preseason_V3_CBS_plus_Recruit
1 Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame 1886.33 66 2.1155 0 1886.33 92.791 1.3746 163.33 2049.66
2 Ohio St. Ohio State Ohio State 1943.72 56 1.3287 130.03 1813.69 92.556 1.3494 162.08 1975.77
3 Georgia Georgia Georgia 1855.48 61 1.7221 65.01 1790.47 92.561 1.35 162.11 1952.58
4 BYU BYU BYU 1801.96 63 1.8795 39 1762.95 88.233 0.8865 139.13 1902.08
5 Oregon Oregon Oregon 1893.79 54 1.1714 156.02 1737.76 92.434 1.3364 161.43 1899.19
6 Texas Tech Texas Tech Texas Tech 1919.3 52 1.014 182.04 1737.26 88.853 0.9529 142.42 1879.68
7 Southern California USC USC 1777.57 56 1.3287 130.03 1647.54 93.656 1.4672 167.92 1815.46
8 Texas Texas Texas 1746.19 54 1.1714 156.02 1590.16 91.921 1.2814 158.71 1748.87
9 Indiana Indiana Indiana 1934.82 41 0.1485 325.07 1609.76 87.95 0.8562 137.63 1747.39
10 Oklahoma Oklahoma Oklahoma 1742.63 55 1.25 143.03 1599.6 89.591 1.0319 146.34 1745.94
11 Miami (FL) Miami Miami 1832.5 46 0.5419 260.06 1572.45 91.837 1.2724 158.26 1730.71
12 Texas A&M Texas A&M Texas A&M 1789.99 46 0.5419 260.06 1529.94 91.898 1.279 158.59 1688.53
13 Washington Washington Washington 1713.99 52 1.014 182.04 1531.95 89.887 1.0636 147.91 1679.86
14 Michigan Michigan Michigan 1709.22 51 0.9353 195.04 1514.18 90.675 1.148 152.1 1666.28
15 Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee 1674.27 53 1.0927 169.03 1505.24 91.756 1.2638 157.83 1663.07
16 Ole Miss Ole Miss Ole Miss 1810.23 44 0.3846 286.05 1524.17 88.168 0.8796 138.79 1662.96
17 Vanderbilt Vanderbilt Vanderbilt 1774.23 46 0.5419 260.06 1514.18 87.83 0.8434 136.99 1651.17
18 Alabama Alabama Alabama 1776.1 41 0.1485 325.07 1451.04 92.382 1.3308 161.16 1612.2
19 Maryland Maryland Maryland 1492.2 65 2.0368 13.01 1479.2 87.026 0.7573 132.73 1611.93
20 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 1658.05 51 0.9353 195.04 1463.01 87.053 0.7602 132.87 1595.88
21 Utah Utah Utah 1797.52 39 -0.0088 351.07 1446.45 87.448 0.8025 134.97 1581.42
22 SMU SMU SMU 1695.02 46 0.5419 260.06 1434.97 88.332 0.8971 139.66 1574.63
23 Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska 1586.59 56 1.3287 130.03 1456.56 83.813 0.4133 115.67 1572.23
24 New Mexico New Mexico New Mexico 1555.35 58 1.4861 104.02 1451.33 84.409 0.4771 118.83 1570.16
25 Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota 1586.34 54 1.1714 156.02 1430.31 87.908 0.8517 137.41 1567.72
26 Houston Houston Houston 1641.16 50 0.8567 208.03 1433.12 87.356 0.7926 134.48 1567.6
27 Navy Navy Navy 1627.33 53 1.0927 169.03 1458.3 80.576 0.0667 98.48 1556.78
28 Arizona Arizona Arizona 1704.91 44 0.3846 286.05 1418.85 86.934 0.7474 132.24 1551.09
29 Boise St. Boise State Boise State 1600.31 52 1.014 182.04 1418.27 86.475 0.6983 129.8 1548.07
30 Iowa Iowa Iowa 1750.01 39 -0.0088 351.07 1398.94 88.367 0.9009 139.84 1538.78

Rank Team Reason
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1886.3 -> 2049.7 [+163.3] (#5 -> #1) ↑
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 1943.7 -> 1975.8 [+32.0] (#1 -> #2) ↓
3 Georgia Bulldogs 1952.6 [+97.1] (#6 -> #3) ↑
4 BYU Cougars 1902.1 [+100.1] (#9 -> #4) ↑
5 Oregon Ducks 1899.2 [+5.4] (#4 -> #5) ↓
6 Texas Tech Red Raiders 1879.7 [-39.6] (#3 -> #6) ↓
7 USC Trojans 1815.5 [+37.9] (#12 -> #7) ↑
8 Texas Longhorns 1748.9 [+2.7] (#16 -> #8) ↑
9 Indiana Hoosiers 1747.4 [-187.4] (#2 -> #9) ↓
10 Oklahoma Sooners 1745.9 [+3.3] (#17 -> #10) ↑
11 Miami Hurricanes 1730.7 [-101.8] (#7 -> #11) ↓
12 Texas A&M Aggies 1688.5 [-101.5] (#11 -> #12) ↓
13 Washington Huskies 1679.9 [-34.1] (#19 -> #13) ↑
14 Michigan Wolverines 1666.3 [-42.9] (#20 -> #14) ↑
15 Tennessee Volunteers 1663.1 [-11.2] (#30 -> #15) ↑
16 Ole Miss Rebels 1663.0 [-147.3] (#8 -> #16) ↓
17 Vanderbilt Commodores 1651.2 [-123.1] (#14 -> #17) ↓
18 Alabama Crimson Tide 1612.2 [-163.9] (#13 -> #18) ↓
19 Maryland Terrapins 1611.9 [+119.7] (#86 -> #19) ↑
20 Pittsburgh Panthers 1595.9 [-62.2] (#33 -> #20) ↑
21 Utah Utes 1581.4 [-216.1] (#10 -> #21) ↓
22 SMU Mustangs 1574.6 [-120.4] (#25 -> #22) ↑
23 Nebraska Cornhuskers 1572.2 [-14.4] (#53 -> #23) ↑
24 New Mexico Lobos 1570.2 [+14.8] (#66 -> #24) ↑
25 Minnesota Golden Gophers 1567.7 [-18.6] (#54 -> #25) ↑

Next 5 out: Houston (1567.6), Navy (1556.8), Arizona (1551.1), Boise St. (1548.1), Iowa (1538.8)

Back to poll results >>