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Ticklebump Ballot for 2019 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 13, 2019, 10:30 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Looking at how I expect the various conferences and how I expect things to end up. Pay less attention to individual numbers; I do my best to put teams in tiers on how I expect them to perform.Tier 1 (Champ Favorites): Bama and ClemsonTier 2 (Likely Playoff Teams): OSU, Oklahoma, LSU, UGA, Notre Dame, Michigan, and WashingtonTier 3 (Conference Dark Horses): Texas A&M, Syracuse, Oregon, Wisconsin, Texas, Florida, Penn State, and UtahTier 4+ (Divisional Contenders/G5/Indies): Iowa, Iowa St, UCF, Miami, Army, UVA, VT, USC

Rank Team Reason
1 Clemson Tigers As in previous polls, #1 is #1 to me until they are beaten. Lawrence returning as the signal caller just solidifies them as the odds on favorite. I think we will know by the end of week 3 what kind of Tiger team this is with tests against TAMU and Syracuse (who I am bullish on) and then a relative cruise through the end of their schedule. The only other potential threats I can see are Florida State who is an unknown quantity and a pesky UoSC team trying for rival upsets.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide Bama will be in my top 3 for the foreseeable future. They are big, fast, and coached by the devil himself. The Tide have a surprisingly favorable schedule and still have 2 of my top 10 on the schedule. I think they take the W against TAMU who has a brutal stretch of games before them, and come down to a nail biter against LSU. I think who stays healthier to that point in the season will play a major role when the Tigers come to town. There is also Auburn, who I think will be average at best but that probably means they are a natty contender with how logic works.
3 Ohio State Buckeyes I have tOSU in my 3 spot, but consider 3-8 to be more of a group. Any of them have a shot at contending and winning a title, but it isn't crystal clear who will come out on top. In terms of threats throughout the season, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan are what come to mind. It feels like the Big 10 is usually decided when the weather is cold and ground and pound football shines.Out of the group of tOSU, Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin,- Wisconsin returns the most production at about 73%.tOSU and Michigan both return about 63% but in inverse ways. tOSU returns 42% of their offensive production (good for 117 in the nation) and Michigan returns 50% of their defensive production (good for 106 in the nation)Penn State has the most production to find with only 56% of their production returning.
4 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma seems to be the heir apparent in the Big 12. Transfer Jalen Hurts just fits the transfer QB narrative too well. Mix that in with pedestrian Big 12, they seem to be in their own weight class. I know a lot of folks are big on Texas, but I just don't see them as strong as the Sooners.Biggest threats come from Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Texas.
5 LSU Tigers LSU has a rough schedule to say the least. Despite that, I think I have them favored in every game except Bama which I consider a toss up. I think they come out swinging early and throttle the Longhorns. LSU also returns and impressive 76% of their production meaning they just continue grinding down in death valley.9-10 wins feels right for LSU, but I think they have the potential to absolutely run their schedule with the right breaks and a healthy team.
6 Georgia Bulldogs The Bulldogs are a bit of a mystery to me. They always seem like the right pick preseason. Couple that with marquee games against the Irish, Gators, and Aggies, and they have on of the more favorable schedules of my top 8. If I had to pick a word to describe them, volatile seems right. They will chug along dominating opponents then the wheels seem to come off at a completely random time.
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish The Irish are probably the team I am coldest on in my tier 2. Coming off a big year last year, they have scary games all over their schedule. UGA, UVA, VT, Michigan, Boston College, and Standford. I think that the Irish will be a clear favorite in all but two of these games (Mich, UGA) they are all very spooky games. I think the Irish stumble once or twice against the constant pressure. If they do manage the schedule (which they are no stranger to) I think this is a clear playoff team with no conference championship to play.Having rewatched a decent chunk of condensed Irish games, they had a lot of good bounces against good teams last year. Luck or skill or scheme could all be made as arguments for this, but if they piss off whatever leprechaun that has had their back, they could find themselves in 9-3 or 8-4 territory quick.
8 Michigan Wolverines My big question for the Blue is defense. As cited in my OSU rationale, they have a lot of gaps to fill on defense. They will not have long to figure out who has the chops as their third game of the season brings in a serious Wisconsin team. Iowa, Penn State, Notre Dame, and OSU punctuate the end of the schedule for Michigan's drudge through November. I also want to put Michigan on notice with Army. While Michigan is a heavy favorite, the Knights are always a little scary if they can dictate the pace of the game.
9 Washington Huskies Washington needs to have Oregon circled on every calendar they have. Outside of that, maybe Utah and Washington State challenge but the Huskies seem to be in the driver's seat out west.
10 Texas A&M Aggies The Aggies would be higher up the list for me but I sadly think they have a schedule that would break even the toughest teams.Having Clemson, Bama, LSU, and Georgia is the closest to a "group of death" scenario I can think of for 2019. It wouldn't shock me if the Aggies pull off 2/4 of the games, but I just think they have to contend with too much fire power throughout the year.
11 Syracuse Orange Syracuse is weird man. Like really weird. Their schedule is super favorable outside of Clemson and assuming FSU doesn't use voodoo magic to resummon the 90's. Their cross conference opponents in Duke and Pitt seem to be well timed and not extra threatening.The biggest concern I have is that they aren't in the Coastal. Otherwise, I think I'd lock them as an ACC title contender. Can they beat Clemson? Maybe. That dome is an absolute jinx. It is definitely an uphill battle however.
12 Oregon Ducks I put my other PAC 12 favorite at 12  because I can. Oregon is absolutely in a conference championship group, but has to punch up a little against a Washington team that looks really tough this year. Outside of that game, Auburn at the season opener is an intriguing game, Washington State can't be overlooked, and I am surprisingly scared of Montana. All in all, I think the PAC 12 is decided when the Ducks and Huskies face off.
13 Wisconsin Badgers The Badgers are my favorite for the West division. Michigan, OSU, and Iowa tend to be my biggest concerns if I'm a Wisconsin fan. I don't think Northwestern can repeat last year's performance.
14 Texas Longhorns I need to get another Big 12 team on here. I'm really not too crazy about the Longhorns. LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Iowa St all seem to be strong contenders this year and could wreck the Horns before they really get out of the game. Throw in stiff competition from the Neers, the meme team of Kansas, and the purple powerhouses of TCU and Kansas St, and it could be a very bumpy 2019.
15 Florida Gators I have Florida as a 3 loss team. The Gators return a ton of talent (73% of production) but run into conference opponents of LSU and Georgia. I think the Gators take lumps in both games. So where is the third loss? Miami. The Canes come out swinging with a new look and personnel and I think they catch the Gators napping.
16 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State is another of my Tier 3 teams right now. They have a smooth first 5 games which should push them up the rankings, then they hit a double header of Iowa and Michigan. If they clear that hurdle, the will get a test from Michigan State, but the only true stumbling block is OSU at the end of the year.I am pretty confident that the defense can carry Penn State through most of the season, almost assuring 8-4 as the floor. My big question is QB. How do they adjust to losing McSorely in Happy Valley? A great showing by Clifford (I'm assuming he'll be QB1) could make them much more threatening for the Big 10.
17 Utah Utes Utah is likely my last Tier 3 pick. They are the Dark Horse in the PAC 12 right now and if they sneak one over on Washington, they become much more attractive for taking the conference. Opening with the Holy War is a great pace setter for the program and they do have the distinct advantage of not playing the Ducks in the regular season.
18 Iowa Hawkeyes I've talked about Iowa a bunch in other previews and I think the Hawkeyes are the start of my tier 4. I think they are an outside shot at a conference title and have several major hurdles in their way (Iowa St, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin). They could make a special run this year, but I think they take 1 or 2 of the previous 4 and have a head scratcher loss to leave them at a 9-3 to 8-4 year.
19 Iowa State Cyclones Iowa State is my fun pick in the Big 12 and a team I think faces an early Iowa challenge then is the favorite until a three game stretch of Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, and Texas. Could they fall apart? Yepp. This team more than any I could see going 6-6. But they have a knack for winning when they shouldn't and I would love to see them as a top 20 team at the end of the year.
20 UCF Knights My lone group of 5 pick. The Knights have been 2 time undefeated. What more can you say. I rank them this low as they will be pushed by Stanford, Pitt, a hungry USF, and a Cincinnati team that was surprising last year.Could they go higher? Absolutely. Looking at other teams and the schedules they are facing, I don't think they belong in the playoff conversation unless they are undefeated and they are multiple 2 loss teams in the top 5.
21 Miami Hurricanes I am going to preface this with a "I don't know, it's the Coastal." I think Miami is a bad pick here. The Canes will have played, in my opinion, their biggest games of the season before October is half done. If they can win all of these, Florida, UVA, and VT, they have a bit of a late season scare or two with Pitt and FSU, but they could cruise to the ACC championship game. In past years, GT and Duke would be bigger threats, but the Jackets having to rebuild and transition their offense and Duke losing a star QB, I just think a lot of the bite seems to be taken out of the chaos division.
22 Army West Point This is really a placeholder pick for me. I could see a lot of different teams sneaking into the top 25 as the season rolls.Army is my pick coming off a white hot year with losses to Duke and Oklahoma. The schedule this year is even kinder. Mix in an early game against Michigan, and with a little bit of upset magic, you have a team that has a down hill schedule with a headline making win that would position them to climb the rankings with a solid run of their schedule.
23 Virginia Cavaliers Do I buy the hype around Bryce Perkins? Yes. They guy is a phenomenal athlete and a great competitor. My big questions for the Hoos are around OL and RB. Both positions trend young and the loss of a true feature back shrinks the treat that the Hoos had last year. If the Hoos offense becomes too reliant on Perkins and opposing coordinators can limit his mobility, I think the Hoos are in trouble.The major threats include an early game with Pitt, Notre Dame, Miami, and VT. Just for fun, give me ODU over the Hoos with former Hokie Eric Kumah having a special game.
24 Virginia Tech Hokies This is part homer pick, part I think Pitt cannot hold up to the season after the injuries on the defensive side of the ball in Fall camp. In a division where offense was an after thought for a lot of years, VT brings in a very scary WR unit. Couple that with a very sneaky stat line on their QB and the Hokies could give some big names fits. The questions will circle around the running game and the defense. Many saw 2018 as Bud Foster's worst year. Statistically, 2017 was worse and the Hokies are already rebounding with a young, but experienced D anchored by the LB corps. Does Bud Foster have anything left in the bag of tricks or will Coastal Chaos get the best of him and HC Justin Fuente.
25 USC Trojans Probably the shakiest I feel about any team on my preseason poll but that's alright. The Trojans have been on a wild ride but stand a chance in the PAC. Notable games will be Utah, Washington, Oregon, and Notre Dame. Win 3 of those and clean up the rest of the schedule and the Trojans are knocking at the door of a conference title and a possible shot a the playoffs.

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