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frumious88 Ballot for 2019 Preseason

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Aug. 20, 2019, 12:57 p.m.

Overall Rationale: For this season I decided run a new predictive model based on teams performance the last 3 years as well as the as the composite 247 recruiting ranking for the last 4. I combined these two numbers together to get a rough sense of what type of performance we might predict. Now this doesn't take into account a change in coaching or a severe talent disparity at any certain positions but overall I believe it gives a rough sense of how teams might perform this upcoming season.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Even with their bad loss in the championship game, Alabama has dominated the composite recruiting. 4 of the top 5 composite classes went to Alabama in this time period. We all know that Saban is an excellent head coach but the constant shuffling of assistant coaches can be hard on a program. 
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State was already recruiting at a high level but stepped it up even further these last two years especially in 2018 to be the first team in this cycle to have a composite class higher ranked than Alabama.This team is completely full of talent, now it is up to Ryan Day to see if he can coach/develop into a championship team.
3 Clemson Tigers If you think Clemson should be higher, that gives all the more credit to how Clemson has recruited/developed/coached these last few years.In total composite ranking average over this time period, Clemson would come in 9th overall. Having elite talent at QB is perhaps the easiest way to see a team punch above their average recruiting ranking and Clemson has done an excellent job at that.
4 Georgia Bulldogs Similar to Ohio State, Georgia's recruiting has greatly increased these last two years. They are now playing and recruiting at an elite level under Kirby Smart. This could finally be the year they defeat Alabama 
5 Oklahoma Sooners Talent wise based on composite recruiting would put Oklahoma 14th with Tennessee in front of them and UCLA right behind them.Thanks to immense talent at QB, Oklahoma has been able to compete at a high level. If they can continue to develop talented Qbs and improve their recruiting, a championship season is not out of the picture.
6 LSU Tigers For LSU the composite talent difference between them and Georgia is virtually the same (910.44 for them vs - 910.99 for Georgia).Unfortunately for them, even with top talent and coaching, they'll have a very hard time making the playoffs with both Georgia and Alabama standing in their way. Joe Burrow will have to take his game to another level for them to have a chance.
7 USC Trojans This ranking might seem too high now but USC has won double digit games 2 of their past 3 years and their composite ranking barely trails Ohio State and is comfortable ahead of Georgia.USC has never had below a top 4 composite class and with their talent, they should be able to compete with the Alabama/Ohio St teams. With all this talent, there is very little excuse for USC not to finish as a top 10 team.
8 Michigan Wolverines Michigan's overall composition puts them 7th on the list so combined with their record, they are about where we might expect them to be. For them to reach the next level, the coaching/talent development will need to increase.
9 Penn State Nittany Lions From their composite rankings, Penn State has overachieved. Their composite ranking puts them 19th overall making their jump one of the largest in the country.Penn St has slowly seen their recruiting class ranking rise over the past 4 years (21th, 20th, 19th, 13th) so if they can continue this, we might see them make the jump from great to elite.
10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame's composite ranking is virtually on par with Clemson. While they have their own challenges/limitations in who they can recruit, they can still recruit at a high level, bring in elite talent, and compete for championships.To me, I see Notre Dame, they remind me of Georgia under Mark Richt.. The difference between elite/great can often be a fine line and I don't know if this current iteration can reach it.
11 Washington Huskies Washington' has very similar story to Penn St. They have out performed their composite ranking (23rd overall next to South Carolina and Michigan St, 4th best class in the Pac12). and have also slowly  been improving their overall recruiting (29th, 24th, 24th, 20th), I think Chris Petersen is an elite coach at talent development and coaching, if he can continue this trajectory, a championship season is not out of the question.
12 Auburn Tigers Auburn is 7th in overall class composite which is great for them, what is not great for them is that this makes them 4th in their own conference.With Alabama recruiting at an insane level and Georgia quickly approaching that level, it'll be very hard for Auburn to come out on top.
13 Stanford Cardinal Stanfords class composition ranking is 17th overall with it staying fairly consistent in the 15-20 range over this time period. Stanford should likely stay a great team but it'll be hard for it to move into the next level without a generational talent at QB.
14 Florida State Seminoles Florida St might seem too high on this list but Florida St is a team that is full of talent. Their overall average over this period puts them 6th in the country.I know these rankings do not take into account group compositions and Florida St had one of the worst o-lines in the country. But if they can shore up that weakness, they have enough talent on that team to be top 10.
15 Miami Hurricanes I've said elsewhere that I think Mark Richt is someone who can recruit/coach at a great level and not at an elite level. He definitely  improved Miami and consistent brought in top 20 classes but it appeared he hit his ceiling. It is now up to the new coach to bring Miami back to prominence
16 Texas A&M Aggies Texas A&M is in a position similar to Auburn but worse. Where Auburn was 4th in their conference, Texas A&M is 4th in their own division. What they do have going for them is one of the 5 active head coaches to win a national championship.
17 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin' recruitment average should place them in the 30's range but they consistently out perform that. No other team outperforms their ranking as much as Wisconsin.But similar to other teams, they have great development/coaching to rise to the top but it'll be hard to compete against top teams who are also well coached/developed. 
18 Florida Gators Florida will be an interesting team to watch going forward. Their average recruiting ranking was slowly dropping until it jumped up to #12 in 2018, the same year we saw their record improve from 4-7 to 10-3, which included a very enjoyable beatdown of Michigan.For many great coaches, year 2 is where you see the most improvement. If there is a dark horse team to make the playoffs, it is likely Florida.
19 Texas Longhorns Texas average composite class is 12th overall, which isn't bad, but it is certainly below where a program like Texas should be. Texas has the history/resources to be recruiting in top 5 and compete with Alabama, USC, Ohio state.Since Tom Herman has come on board, their record has improved each year. This current ranking still is factoring in Strong's last season so a top 10 ranking is more likely an income vs being around 20th.
20 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma St is another program similar to Wisconsin that has far exceeded their level of talent. They recruiting average is virtually identical to Wisconsin with a slightly worse winrate. But also like Wisconsin, it'll take a great team full of talent to win the B12 but winning anything else seems almost impossible. 
21 Boise State Broncos Boise St hasn't had a class with over top 50 talent yet they are still competing at a top 25 level. The coaching/development may have had a slight drop off once Petersen left but they are a team that can compete and challenge any P5 team.
22 UCF Knights UCF would be much higher on this list but this ranking is still factoring in their 2016 season where they finished 6-7.Their recruiting during this time period went (73rd, 69th, 55th, 56th). Obviously Nick Frost had a lot to do with this and now it is on their new coach to continue that level of play. If they can maintain that level especially if the other top florida teams struggle, UCF has a much higher ceiling that they can reach.
23 Virginia Tech Hokies Virginia Tech recruitment ranking puts them 32nd in the country. Since Fuente took over their recruitment average each year has been (36th, 33rd, 31st). They are small improvements but not sure if it is enough to get them to be a consistent top 15 team. Maryland at this point has a higher recruiting average of this 4 year period. With this being Bud Fosters last year, it has to be imagined that Virginia Tech will likely struggle to replace coaching at that level.If Virginia Tech can tap into the talent in the DMV area and coach at an elite level, they can compete for the ACC but at this point if they are not doing it now, I wonder if they can do it in the future.
24 Mississippi State Bulldogs Despite losing head coach Dan Mullen to Florida after the 2017 season, their recruiting ranking increased the next year. (last 4 years were 28th, 28th, 25th, 23rd). Despite all of this, the SEC, especially the western division, has been an arms race to stack up as much elite talent. Miss St is 5th in their on division, 7th in their conference. They'll need elite QB play and a few breaks to win this conference.
25 Kentucky Wildcats This past year was Kentucky's best year since Bear Bryant was their coach in 1950. It was a team that had 4 players drafted in the first 4 rounds and  they finally beat Florida.The recruiting to this point has remained hovering in the 30's. The question for Kentucky becomes, can they use this past year as momentum to launch to the next level? Or will they fall back with some of that top talent moving to the NFL. Playing in the south and bordering Ohio, they are in a unique position to grab a lot of talent and rise, but with college basketball being the top sport for this school, it is hard to shake the view that this year was an anomaly and not the new norm.

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