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stripes361 Ballot for 2017 Week 2

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 6, 2017, 9:59 a.m.

Overall Rationale: My rankings remained largely the same this week due to the nature of Opening Weekend. My one regret from last week is that I had to pick more than 23 teams. The Top 23 went 21-2 last week, with both losses coming against other Top 23 teams. Among that group, the only significant movements were FSU dropping after Deondre Francois' injury, fallout from the Florida-Michigan game, and a Tennessee plummet following their wholly unconvincing performance against Georgia Tech. Every other team either struggled or blew out a cupcake, providing me with little basis for making real movements. Starting in about two weeks, I expect my rankings to become more volatile until around late October. The bottom two spots proved to be a revolving door, as both Texas and UNC struggled much more than expected in opening day losses. Notre Dame and Oregon get the nod for now on the basis of strong metrics but I am really uncertain about both teams. I predict that there will be a lot of fluidity this year in the Top 25 bubble.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes By halftime of their Thursday night game against the Hoosiers, I had already mentally relegated the Buckeyes to the bottom part of the Top 5. Even with a win, that first-half performance posed a bunch of question marks about Kevin Wilson's offense and Greg Schiano's secondary. Fortunately for Ohio State, their second half was dominant enough that I'm willing to hold off on dropping the Buckeyes for now. I can't promise that they will stay at #1 as long as they win but they can keep the top spot if they learn to play more consistently.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama had a chance to take the top spot in the rankings if only their passing game had been a little stronger. Jalen Hurts did well enough, seeing as he may have been facing the best secondary in the nation, but there may come a time this season when he is forced to win a game through the air. He hasn't proven to me that he can take over a game with his arm, so for now the Crimson Tide remain at #2.
3 Oklahoma Sooners I picked Oklahoma #3 in the preseason because of their elite QB play and Week One did nothing to dispel that notion. Kyler Murray went 10/11 for 149 yards and 1 TD and didn't even have the best QBR, completion percentage, or yards/attempt on his team. Those honors go to my Heisman favorite, Baker Mayfield, who played a flawless first half. Any ranked team should be expected to put up great numbers against UTEP, so the Sooners were not going to move into the Top 2 unless they broke Georgia Tech's single-game scoring record; however, they are a very solid #3 for right now. And they'll have their chance to move to the top when they visit Columbus on Saturday.
4 Washington Huskies Washington had a shaky performance against Rutgers this week, outgaining the Knights by a mere 368-309 yards in a 30-14 victory. On a different week, this game may have gotten them bumped down a notch. Instead, with most teams either struggling or playing cupcakes, they're up one spot to #4 after FSU lost Deondre Francois to injury.Chalk this one up to East Coast travel. If they struggle with Montana or Fresno State, they will start falling down the rankings.
5 Clemson Tigers Clemson held off a strong charge from Penn State and Auburn to take the #5 spot in this week's poll. Kelly Bryant seamlessly stepped into Deshaun Watson's role as the Tigers outgained their MAC opponent 665-120 on the day.
6 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State may have jumped Clemson if the Tigers had struggled against Kent State. The Lions could have finished with both 300 passing yards and 300 rushing yards if they had not taken their foot off the gas. Saquon Barkley averaged a cool 12.3 yards per carry and preseason all-American tight end Mike Gesicki hauled in his first two TD catches of the year. After attending this game in person, I was impressed with Trace McSorley's accuracy, poise, and command of the offense. I'm high on him for right now, assuming that he can keep his performance up against Big Ten defenses. A repeat conference championship is not entirely out of the question.
7 Auburn Tigers Auburn showed the SEC, specifically Tennessee, how it should defend option rushing attacks. The Tigers held a tricky Georgia Southern squad to 78 yards of offense. If Kevin Steele's defense can play at a high level against SEC teams, the sky is the limit for Gus Malzahn's squad.
8 Louisville Cardinals As a whole, Louisville played a better game against Purdue than the 35-28 final scoreline would indicate. Lamar Jackson completed 65% of his passes en route to finishing with 378 passing yards and ran for over 100 on the ground. We've become inured to such gaudy statlines from the defending Heisman Trophy winner to the point where we may even start to underrate his play. Meanwhile, the Cardinals held Jeff Brohm's high-powered attack to 344 yards of total offense. Purdue has talent on that side of the ball and Coach Brohm will utilize it much better than his predecessor did. I expect this game is more of a positive sign for Purdue than a negative one for Louisville. If Bobby Petrino's squad struggles against UNC this week, then I will think of dropping them outside the Top 10.
9 USC Trojans USC struggled at times against a Broncos squad which should remain a contender in the MAC despite the departure of heralded head coach PJ Fleck, as well as offensive stalwarts Zach Terrell and Corey Davis. They rallied admirably enough to avoid a drop in the polls but not quite enough to jump Louisville. I'm still somewhat skeptical of all the USC hype but they will have every opportunity to prove me wrong this Saturday against Stanford.
10 Florida State Seminoles FSU dropped from #4 to #10 this week after they lost their stud QB, Deondre Francois. They are still loaded but for now will take a back seat to all the teams with proven elite talents at the quarterback position. However, this is still a potential playoff team if James Blackman can play at a high level and lead his team to an ACC title. Don't sleep on the 'Noles.
11 Wisconsin Badgers The two halves of Wisconsin's opener mirrored the two most common storylines for this weekend's games. In the first half they struggled mightily against an inferior opponent, while in the second they steamrolled a cupcake. Like many other teams, they did very little to change my opinion on them one way or the other. The Badgers bring elite D and an elite run game to the table. My big question mark remains whether QB Alex Hornibrook can play at a level to match the rest of the squad. TBD...
12 Michigan Wolverines Michigan rises slightly due to a stunning defensive performance against Florida. However, Wilton Speight struggled once again against a top-tier opponent. For Michigan to have a Top Ten season, they must get more production in the passing game.
13 Stanford Cardinal Stanford jumps Georgia this week by virtue of not having any vital injuries during their early bye week. The Cardinal have a chance to make a major statement if they can roll into Los Angeles and take down the Fighting Darnolds of USC. I'll be watching running back Bryce Love and the Cardinal pass rush very closely.
14 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia drops slightly this week from #12 due to Jacob Eason's injury in their season opener. It will be interesting to see whether they can generate any sort of passing attack against Notre Dame this weekend. An anemic offense could lead to an even bigger drop in the rankings.
15 LSU Tigers I have literally no idea what to think of LSU's 27-0 win over BYU. Guice is nice, though. Stay tuned.
16 TCU Horned Frogs TCU took care of business against Jackson State. However, the 63-0 win would have been much more impressive against Jacksonville State. The Horned Frogs have to travel to Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma this year, along with up-tempo Iowa State and Texas Tech squads. Ouch. TCU will be competitive but has a long, uphill journey to a Big XII title because of their schedule.
17 Miami Hurricanes Miami had a fairly uninspired win against Bethune-Cookman this week. With trips to Arkansas State and Florida State coming up, they don't have much time left to get into mid-season form. I'm officially putting Miami on Upset Watch against Blake Anderson's Red Wolves.
18 Washington State Cougars Washington State beat an FCS team for the first time in three years. If they can defeat Boise State next week, they may be on track to surpass the 8-4 record they posted in each of the past two seasons. Mike Leach's defense will be sneaky good this year and they may showcase that against the Broncos next week.
19 Oklahoma State Cowboys Mason Rudolph was sharp in this week's opener against Tulsa, completing 20 of 24 passes for over 300 yards. If the defense can tighten up, this team has a real chance of making a run at a conference title. They play 5 of their 9 games at home, and get to face Oklahoma, TCU, and Kansas State in Stillwater.
20 Virginia Tech Hokies Josh Jackson was everything I thought he would be. Namely, he struggled out of the gates only to get better as the night progressed and showed a high level of aptitude both running and throwing the ball. The Hokies may have made a bigger jump in my rankings if my opinion of WVU was higher. The defense did give up 592 yards of offense so Bud Foster has his work cut out for him.
21 Tennessee Volunteers Yes, the Volunteers did win (by one point in double overtime), but I am not opposed to dropping teams due to performance rather than result. The Yellow Jackets outgained Tennessee 655-369 in total yards, 33-18 in first downs, and possessed the ball for nearly 42 minutes. All of these numbers would have been even more lopsided had GT not fumbled the ball several times, two of which became turnovers. Butch Jones magic struck once again, and perhaps his team simply has a real knack for winning, but for right now I'm selling. Tennessee out of the Top 20 after starting the season at #18.
22 James Madison Dukes James Madison went to a hostile environment in Greenville, NC, and dominated the way a borderline ranked team should against a lower-tier AAC opponent. The Dukes put up 614 yards of offense in under 30 minutes of possession, both throwing and running the ball with high levels of effectiveness. The defense shut down an up-tempo ECU offense which ran 83 plays and threw 53 passes, holding the Pirates to one 25-yard scoring drive before the last 30 seconds of garbage-time.If JMU can consistently dominate its FCS opponents the way it did against ECU, it could stay in the lower echelons of this ranking all season long.
23 Florida Gators Florida would not necessarily have dropped from their #16 spot in last week's ranking because of a loss to a tough Michigan team. However, their offensive performance was so dreadful (albeit against a world-class D) that I had to drop them a significant amount. They get one tuneup game next week to figure things out before playing Tennessee the following week in what will likely be a Top 25 elimination match.
24 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame dominated the defending AAC champions, making for one of the most underrated wins of opening weekend. However, even a victory next week against Georgia won't necessarily prove they're "back". They get a home game against a one-dimensional offense that will really struggle to throw the ball with Jacob Eason injured. Take any potential win against Georgia with a grain of salt. With that being said, the Top 25 bubble is pretty weak right now and the Irish have as much a claim to this spot as anyone.
25 Oregon Ducks There are several teams that could have been in this spot. Northwestern struggled against an underrated Nevada team but should be strong this season. Maryland defeated last week's #24 team, Texas, while Cal-Berkeley beat last week's #25 team, UNC. Both those teams were too far off my radar to convince me with one good win but are on the bubble now. UCLA had their miracle comeback against Texas A&M but did it with Aggies QB Nick Starkel sidelined. Even A&M could have been #25 this week had Starkel not been injured. I considered Georgia Tech and West Virginia as well after their strong performances against Tennessee and Virginia Tech. However, in the absence of real certainty about any of these teams, I am going to give a nod to the Ducks, who are currently FPI darlings. Oregon will certainly have to beat Nebraska to retain their spot next week, and probably by a good margin.

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