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justsaynotoreddit Ballot for 2017 Week 2

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 5, 2017, 5:02 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Teams move up and down each week based on how actual MOV compares to predicted MOV. MOV is capped at 35. The number is somewhat arbitrary but 5 TDs is my subjective judgment of the point where a greater MOV doesn't really tell us anything more about how good teams really are. There is a preseason component based on last year's final rankings, returning production, recruiting rankings, and coach rankings. The preseason component will be removed halfway through the season and rankings will be recalculated with each team starting exactly equal. I am happy to answer any further questions about the poll.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-) Not possible to go higher than #1.
2 Clemson Tigers (-) Took care of business.
3 Florida State Seminoles (-) Losses to Bama don't count. Seriously, that's the way the math works in this poll. A loss to #1 cannot influence your ranking (neither can a win over #130 or an FCS team). Also, the formula doesn't know about injuries.
4 Penn State Nittany Lions (+1) due to USC's drop.
5 Oklahoma Sooners (+1) due to USC's drop.
6 USC Trojans (-2) due to keeping it too close against WMU.
7 Ohio State Buckeyes (+2) Computer doesn't care that it was close for 2.5 quarters.
8 Washington Huskies (-1) .Kept it too close against Rutgers, but mainly dropped just as a result of tOSU's rise.
9 Stanford Cardinal (-1) due to tOSU passing them.
10 Michigan Wolverines (+3) Solid win, even over a decimated UF roster.
11 LSU Tigers (-)
12 Auburn Tigers (-2)
13 Georgia Bulldogs (+1)
14 Oklahoma State Cowboys (+3) Blew out a Tulsa team who got 10 wins last year.
15 Wisconsin Badgers (+1)
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+2)
17 Tennessee Volunteers (+2)
18 Florida Gators (-3) Lost to a good team so they don't fall too far.
19 Miami Hurricanes (-7) Can you believe they let some broad named Beth Cook score 13 points all by herself? (Serious explanation, predicted margin was 35, computer doesn't take too kindly to those who underperform against FCS or very bad FBS opponents).
20 Oregon Ducks (-)
21 South Carolina Gamecocks (+3) NC St was preseason #32 in this model so that's a solid win.
22 Texas A&M Aggies (+1) As bad as it was to allow that comeback, all the formula knows is they lost by 1 point to a decent team. And they rise (as do the three remaining teams) due to Texas and VT falling.
23 TCU Horned Frogs (+2)
24 Mississippi State Bulldogs (+2)
25 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+2) I'll note here that VT fell to 26 because the computer thinks WVU is bad and VT should have beat them by more. I think the preseason data I used didn't take Will Grier into account properly.

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