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ColombianInIowa24 Ballot for 2026 Week 5

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 27, 2026, 4:11 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Computer swap mechanisms with random swaps used to fill in unknowns based on past season data outcomes and then recombined in Monte Carlo. I added a model is confident in ranked status, to certify that all runs within a standard deviation from the mean resulted in a ranked status. The model has an SEC bias this week, clearly. Still I am very happy with how it is shaking out.

Rank Team Reason
1 Florida Gators 8.04 - After destroying Ole Miss, Florida skyrockets in the rankings as the clearest signal seen yet. Confident in ranked status.
2 Texas Longhorns 10.21 - Win over Tennessee is good, but not nearly as good as the transitives of Florida, with Ohio State still being judged poorly without real competition outside of Texas. Confident in ranked status.
3 Alabama Crimson Tide 11.57 - Undefeated. Confident in ranked status.
4 Mississippi State Bulldogs 14.20 - Mizzou win distinguishes them. Confident in ranked status.
5 Duke Blue Devils 16.18 - The Blue Devils hype train slows down despite the trouncing of FCS competition, as the model will see two weeks of bye.
6 UCLA Bruins 16.69 - Impressive destruction of Maryland. Confident in ranked status.
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 17.82 - Undefeated with a dominant win against Purdue Confident in ranked status.
8 Ole Miss Rebels 22.73 - Despite a loss, my simulations still like them overall. The model is adapting well!
9 Oregon Ducks 25.20 - Win over previous #1 USC drags them back in, though the model is very unsure what to make of this team.
10 Pittsburgh Panthers 25.39 - Undefeated, though a bit high in my mind.
11 James Madison Dukes 25.55 - Undefeated.
12 Cincinnati Bearcats 26.01 - Win against previously undefeated makes the model happy with Cinci.
13 Nebraska Cornhuskers 27.83.
14 Georgia Bulldogs 28.00 - Unfortunately, my model does not consider Oklahoma real competition.
15 Auburn Tigers 28.37 - A bit confused by this, but alright.
16 Iowa Hawkeyes 29.23 - Solid win over a middle of the road Michigan.
17 USF Bulls 29.44 - Survive and advance, as the model doesn't see how they won...
18 Virginia Tech Hokies 30.28 - See above, if at a bit higher level.
19 LSU Tigers 30.74 - SEC bias /s. Anyway they have some solid win.
20 Indiana Hoosiers 31.38 - Without a decent signal to operate on, the Hoosiers keep falling. Undefeated is what really matters. Take my rat poison if you wish Cignetti!
21 Texas Tech Red Raiders 32.88 - Beating up Sam Houston does not make up for shaky competition. Undefeated.
22 Kentucky Wildcats 33.07 - Ok, SEC bias for real. Whacky choice, but alright.
23 Utah Utes 33.09 - Unfortunately beating up my Cyclones is not considered interesting. Undefeated.
24 Miami Hurricanes 33.37 - Beating up the three weakest schools is not exactly intriguing resume wise. Undefeated, and should improve if they carry their wins into ACC play. I sure hope not, screw the Hurricanes.
25 North Dakota State Bison 34.56 - Undefeated team stays ranked, even if low. Notable Omissions: (#30) Ohio State, can't climb back up on a bye week. (#28) undefeated BYU, bye week penalty early. (#27) Boise State, if my model has no idea about Oregon, it has less of an idea about Boise State. (#29) USC, see Boise State/Oregon. Also screw them for that injury. (#34) Mizzou, Mississippi State was climbing, so Mizzou gets punished about a less certain team. (#35) Oklahoma State, see Boise State, Oregon, USC. (#45) Tennessee bad wins and no clue on margin with Texas. (#51) Houston, no idea why my model hates them, but probably noise and nothing too interesting to point out. (# very low) SMU, did I miss something? Why the hell does the AP have these frauds ranked? They barely beat FSU and Missouri State and lost strongly against Louisville which isn't even considered that good after Wake Forest beat them.

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