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ExternalTangents Ballot for 2026 Week 5

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 28, 2026, 9:30 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Each team is rated by two numbers: an offense rating (how many more or fewer points it scores than an average team would against the same opponents) and a defense rating (how many more or fewer points it allows, where lower is better).

Those are learned from every game score, adjusted for the quality of the opponent and for home field. Because each team's rating depends on its opponents' ratings, the model adjusts all teams together, repeatedly, until every rating is consistent with every result — strength of schedule is built into the method rather than added afterward. Early in the season, when there is little to go on, ratings are blended with a preseason estimate built from last year's final rating and recruiting talent; that estimate fades as real games accumulate.

Ratings are also pulled toward average in proportion to how little evidence supports them, so a team with three games is treated more cautiously than one with eleven. The overall rating is offense minus defense: how many points a team would be expected to beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field, with 0 being exactly average. Margin of victory counts in full, with no cap, and no human judgment, polls or reputation enter anywhere.

Rating is meant to be predictive of future results. Accuracy consistently ranks in line with the top 20 systems on PreditionTracker.com for straight-up accuracy, average error, and ATS results.

Lots more detail about the ratings (including full rankings, team pages, accuracy tracking, and predictions) can be found at https://externaltangents.com/ExTAN/

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Overall +33.3; offense +22.4 (2nd), defense -11.0 (9th)
2 Georgia Bulldogs Overall +32.5; offense +22.7 (1st), defense -9.8 (11th)
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Overall +32.1; offense +15.4 (8th), defense -16.7 (2nd)
4 Ohio State Buckeyes Overall +31.9; offense +17.1 (5th), defense -14.8 (5th)
5 Texas Longhorns Overall +31.4; offense +10.3 (17th), defense -21.1 (1st)
6 Miami Hurricanes Overall +28.2; offense +16.1 (6th), defense -12.2 (8th)
7 LSU Tigers Overall +28.0; offense +12.7 (10th), defense -15.3 (4th)
8 Oregon Ducks Overall +27.4; offense +18.0 (4th), defense -9.4 (14th)
9 Florida Gators Overall +25.1; offense +18.9 (3rd), defense -6.1 (26th)
10 Indiana Hoosiers Overall +23.2; offense +9.9 (19th), defense -13.3 (6th)
11 Tennessee Volunteers Overall +21.3; offense +15.4 (7th), defense -5.9 (28th)
12 Utah Utes Overall +21.1; offense +11.5 (13th), defense -9.6 (13th)
13 Texas A&M Aggies Overall +19.5; offense +9.7 (20th), defense -9.8 (10th)
14 Mississippi State Bulldogs Overall +17.3; offense +13.5 (9th), defense -3.8 (41st)
15 Ole Miss Rebels Overall +17.0; offense +11.9 (11th), defense -5.0 (37th)
16 Iowa Hawkeyes Overall +16.0; offense +3.6 (51st), defense -12.5 (7th)
17 USC Trojans Overall +15.7; offense +11.6 (12th), defense -4.0 (40th)
18 Nebraska Cornhuskers Overall +15.4; offense +8.9 (21st), defense -6.4 (23rd)
19 Oklahoma Sooners Overall +15.2; offense -0.2 (72nd), defense -15.4 (3rd)
20 UCLA Bruins Overall +14.4; offense +10.9 (14th), defense -3.5 (43rd)
21 Kentucky Wildcats Overall +14.1; offense +6.9 (26th), defense -7.3 (19th)
22 Pittsburgh Panthers Overall +13.9; offense +6.5 (28th), defense -7.4 (18th)
23 Penn State Nittany Lions Overall +13.7; offense +4.0 (44th), defense -9.7 (12th)
24 Texas Tech Red Raiders Overall +13.5; offense +6.4 (30th), defense -7.1 (21st)
25 Auburn Tigers Overall +13.5; offense +4.3 (42nd), defense -9.1 (15th)

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