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NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2026 Week 5

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 27, 2026, 11:08 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.

Rank Team Reason
1 Texas Longhorns 2.419 [10.10-1.90]
2 Georgia Bulldogs 2.375 [10.21-1.79]
3 Alabama Crimson Tide 2.370 [9.99-2.01]
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2.239 [11.25-0.75]
5 Florida Gators 2.040 [8.84-3.16]
6 LSU Tigers 1.989 [8.33-3.67]
7 Miami Hurricanes 1.973 [10.64-1.36]
8 Utah Utes 1.930 [10.94-1.06]
9 Indiana Hoosiers 1.882 [10.80-1.20]
10 Ole Miss Rebels 1.877 [7.63-4.37]
11 Mississippi State Bulldogs 1.786 [7.66-4.34]
12 Ohio State Buckeyes 1.749 [9.13-2.87]
13 Tennessee Volunteers 1.734 [7.77-4.23]
14 Auburn Tigers 1.624 [6.46-5.54]
15 Kentucky Wildcats 1.524 [6.81-5.19]
16 Vanderbilt Commodores 1.472 [6.02-5.98]
17 Texas A&M Aggies 1.460 [6.68-5.32]
18 Iowa Hawkeyes 1.440 [9.37-2.63]
19 Texas Tech Red Raiders 1.429 [10.15-1.85]
20 Oregon Ducks 1.398 [9.03-2.97]
21 Oklahoma Sooners 1.373 [5.68-6.32]
22 BYU Cougars 1.362 [8.44-3.56]
23 Missouri Tigers 1.282 [5.67-6.33]
24 Pittsburgh Panthers 1.192 [9.39-2.61]
25 South Carolina Gamecocks 1.126 [5.01-6.99]

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