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crownebeach Ballot for 2019 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 19, 2019, 7:42 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Projections are based on a combination of returning starters, overall team talent, coaching continuity, and perceived upside. This is NOT a power ranking or a resume ranking. I may not end up ranking teams transitively, though I wish it could be that tidy. Factors that increase my confidence in a team include: balanced attrition (e.g., returning starters distributed evenly across several position groups), expected strong quarterback play, demonstrated coordinator proficiency. Factors that decrease my confidence in a team include: roster holes/graduations that are concentrated within the same position group, unsettled quarterback competitions, coaching turnover, or significant home/road splits.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Clemson Tigers Lost just enough on defense to give Bama the nod at No. 1.
3 LSU Tigers Have gone back and forth on LSU-Georgia over the last few days, but the Tigers just don't need to install as much as UGA does. Dawgs lost a lot from their nasty front seven, and Baker's gone too. UGA's coordinator situation is totally from scratch, including a first-time playcaller at OC, and I really rate Dave Aranda. This was a tough call but I stand by it.
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 Ohio State Buckeyes
6 Florida Gators Balanced as hell: one of only five teams last year in both the offensive and defensive S&P+ top 20. Virtually the entire passing game is back, too. 
7 Oklahoma Sooners
8 Michigan Wolverines Some big red flags: first-time OC, massive defensive roster turnover. 
9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
10 Oregon Ducks Everything on this ballot between No. 10 and No. 23 is a hot, muddy mess.
11 Washington Huskies
12 Michigan State Spartans The defense kicked ass last year with virtually the same personnel. If Brian Lewerke's confetti'd shoulder is fully healed, I'm forecasting a big rebound.
13 Missouri Tigers Were a few good bounces from 10-2 last year and get quite a bit back. I'm not sure how Kelly Bryant is going to fit, but I see the upside here.
14 Utah Utes
15 Oklahoma State Cowboys They're going to be extremely experienced in the secondary, and if you had to pick just one unit to be set at in the Big 12, the back end is usually the group you'd pick. I'm not the least bit concerned about the offense performing; this is Mike Gundy we're talking about.
16 Texas Longhorns Returning quarterback near the top of the conference, recruited very well, but lost about a million starters on defense. Incredibly talented, will probably beat a team I have ranked above them...but probably a year away from peak potential.
17 Iowa Hawkeyes
18 Texas A&M Aggies Paste everything I wrote about Texas into this box. The offense is going to be pretty, but losing their probable starting TE hurts, and the defense (which didn't wow me last year anyway) has lots of new faces. Will compete, but probably not contend.
19 Penn State Nittany Lions
20 Stanford Cardinal Probably need a crazy year from K.J. Costello in order to contend. There are some big question marks (offensive line play, interior defense), but they're sneaky close to being one of Bud Elliot's blue-chip-ratio teams.
21 Boise State Broncos
22 UCF Knights Will run the ball like a freight train downhill; I would have had them in the top 15 with a healthy KZ Milton. Thin on defense.
23 Auburn Tigers Defense should be good in the secondary and on the outside, but I think you can probably run the ball on their interior line. QB is a big question mark. Could finish top-10, could finish unranked.
24 Memphis Tigers
25 Virginia Tech Hokies Competent offense returns plenty. I'm worried about the DL, but the secondary should finally be good enough to play man-free and quarters coverages again, so expect a lot more heat on passing downs. Lots of VT's young players got trials by fire last year and could take a big step up.

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