Back to poll results >>

BigBoutros Ballot for 2019 Preseason

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Aug. 18, 2019, 5:40 p.m.

Overall Rationale: My primary analytical reference as of Week Zero is Bill Connelly's S&P+. I am also building out a proprietary model, Football Analysis Regarding Tempo, Score, Margin, Efficiency, League, and Location (FARTSMELL).

Rank Team Reason
1 Clemson Tigers Reigning champs return the bulk of a lethal offense, including QB, RB, and top WRs. Schedule is highly favorable. I strongly recommend watching Trevor Lawrence's 2018 playoff cuts: | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8rg2DVup9c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbx0ybAKKJg | By the end of the season, Lawrence had become an absolute freak show cheat code video game alien pork chop on a stick. If you are old enough to remember recruiting paysites in their early-aughts infancy, you may recall the high school scouting of Jimmy Clausen. He was considered a truly generational QB prospect; multiple Heismans, national championships, and a first-overall draft selection were on the table. It didn't turn out that way for Clausen, Notre Dame, or the prognosticators, and perhaps as a result they've been a little more hesitant to heap such expectations on incoming quarterbacks since. I bring this up because we've already had a full season of Lawrence at the college level and speaking of him in hushed, reverential tones like he is a Great Old One is at this point justified. It is stupid to think what his numbers will look like as a true junior with not only the Clemson playbook fully downloaded in his head but a cavalcade of five-stars to play with.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide Offensive personnel returns intact and presumably healthier, even with heavy staff turnover. Defensive staff turnover should actually benefit the program (Tosh to Golding).
3 Georgia Bulldogs Pattern of returning offensive starters on an elite unit continues. Back-to-back East titles (plus an outright SEC crown) for Kirb your Enthusiasm.
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Balanced offense and defense with the requisite blue-chip ratio and a favorable schedule. IMO they can afford a loss to Georgia in a playoff context.
5 Oklahoma Sooners Consecutive Heismans give this offensive system massive benefit of the doubt. Defensive staff upgraded (No Stops Stoops -> Fluffin' Ruffin -> Mean One).
6 Florida Gators Your author recalls Dan Mullen's 2010 Mississippi State team, which was made of Sylvester Croom's spare parts yet improved over the course of the season so comprehensively that it dismantled a comparable Michigan roster in the Gator Bowl 52-14. Last season's Florida team had a similar arc and conclusion. Do not trifle with expectations of a Dan Mullen program because he will exceed them.
7 Ohio State Buckeyes Schrodinger's juggernaut. Ryan Day is an untested rookie in over his head yet also the true power behind the throne of last year's 12-1 B1G champion. Justin Fields can't beat out Gunnar Hoak yet also is a Heisman favorite. There is a massive range of possible outcomes for this OSU team. History suggests they will fall somewhere in the "undisputed success" range.
8 Michigan Wolverines Shea Patterson is a natural fit with Josh Gattis, as are Michigan's monster wide receivers. Don Brown has taken lesser rosters to the top ten on defense, but at least one game looms large in recent memory as a disastrous capitulation. If he can truly fix those 19 minutes that have kept him up at night then both sides of the ball should contribute to a B1G and playoff contender.
9 LSU Tigers Many, if not most, had 2018 penciled as Ed Orgeron's final season at LSU; instead he went 10-3, finishing in the top 10 and reclaiming fan support. Personally I still hate the promotion of Steve Ensminger to OC, but redshirt senior QB Joe Burrow might be ruff and tuff enuff to run any offense successfully.
10 Iowa State Cyclones QB Brock Purdy is the darling of gem collectors. He's been hit with so many underrated labels that he is now rated. He could be the first-team Big 12 quarterback this year.
11 Texas Longhorns Sam Ehlinger, young running backs, and a growing defense.
12 Oregon Ducks Justin Herbert and a killer defense.
13 Washington Huskies A disgusting 1-2 punch of defensive coordinators plus a chance for Jacob Eason to sling that thing in his home state.
14 Mississippi State Bulldogs I'm a big fan of Tommy Stevens. He is a plus athlete with plus-plus size, capable of running Joe Moorhead's 2018 rusty Peterbilt offense or his more customary 500-style air raid. Mississippi State also finished with 2018's #1 overall defense according to S&P+.
15 Auburn Tigers I'm curious about teams that haven't chosen their quarterback a week before the season, especially when the two options are freshmen. Gus Malzahn has a choice to make between two highly contrasting styles in the Tesla Bo Nix or the dump truck Joey Gatewood. I presume both will play extensively; Auburn's best-case scenario is probably that Nix dominates and Gatewood subsequently volunteers to switch positions.
16 Texas A&M Aggies Meanwhile some teams do have a quarterback and a really good team behind him but they have to play a top-ten opponent basically every other week. A&M could finish with 5 losses yet be a top-10 team to S&P+.
17 Iowa Hawkeyes "That's odd, voter guy. You only have one B1G West team ranked and it's Iowa?" This is as good a spot as any to explain the human side of my preseason voting philosophy: when in doubt, vote for the best quarterbacks. I am a big fan of Nate Stanley and this year he's got a healthy (knock on wood) stable of running backs and the best OL in the division. "Why is Ohio State in the top ten, then? Justin Fields has never started a game." Two reasons. One, he was statistically one of the highest-ranked recruits in paysite history. Two, everything always goes right for Ohio State.
18 Penn State Nittany Lions PSU will make a case for best defense in the B1G. How will the marriage of OC Ricky Rahne and new QB Sean Clifford work out?
19 Utah Utes Unanimous preseason favorite in the Pac-12 South, but perhaps by default. QB Tyler Huntley is a tough and talented senior but he's been plagued by injuries and the depth chart behind him is a bit cobwebbed.
20 Syracuse Orange Tommy DeVito enters an offensive system that has already seen Eric Dungey blossom as a lesser recruit. Easily the second-best ACC team.
21 Virginia Cavaliers Coastal Chaos Part 1. The preseason ACC Coastal favorite is led by a pair of veteran Bryces on either side of the ball in senior QB Perkins and senior S Hall.
22 Miami Hurricanes Coastal Chaos Part 2. New head coach Manny Diaz has had a busy camp preparing for the CFB season's earliest game, especially in juggling his QB room. He's settled on redshirt freshman Jarren Williams over N'Kosi Perry and Tathan Martell, who's now taking snaps my dude at wide receiver.
23 Michigan State Spartans PSU's competition for best defense in the B1G. QB Brian Lewerke is healthy again. Will that make all the difference, or will MSU's awkward offensive staff shuffle prove fruitless?
24 Arizona State Sun Devils I like Jayden Daniels for this year's September Heisman. ASU has one of the more manageable Pac-12 schedules, getting WSU, Oregon, and USC at home and avoiding Washington and Stanford entirely. They do play at preseason South favorite Utah, however.
25 Army West Point The nation's best triple-option QB plus a ludicrously easy schedule. Genuinely expected to finish 12-1. If they do, they'll be ranked higher than this.

Back to poll results >>