Probably too high. But, again, BLOOD WEEK happened. A 1 point road win against one of the two teams that has given them any trouble (USF) over the last season and a half is probably still worth something.
UCF received their biggest test of the season and found a way. I would argue playing any team a 3rd time in 13 months is going to be close due to knowing each other, especially with the revenge factor for Memphis. W19. 
UCF was lackluster in their first real opponent of the season. But the ugly win is always better than a pretty loss; UCF continues their win-streak and hops over USF as they continue to falter endlessly.