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TheJeemTeam Ballot for 2018 Preseason

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Aug. 17, 2018, 5:06 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I used a hybrid method where I used a computer poll to rank every team. From those rankings I separated them into separate tiers to re-rank within. Each team had a result that was scaled between 0 and 1, and I delineated the tiers where the difference between teams was greater than .005. Within the tiers I would re-rank based on which team(s) I think are better using a variety of criteria (Experience, Quality of various Position Groups, Opinion based on preseason previews, pre-existing knowledge). Once the season starts, I will base the re-ranking within tiers on what I observe of the teams, head-to-head, common opponents, conference strength, etc. I will also add a performance-based component to my poll once games start. I will use different ratios of my pre-season ranking combined with the performance-based ranking as the season goes along. While I will quickly phase out the pre-season ranking (under 25% around the end of September) I will not get rid of it entirely, but it will be down around 5% by the end of the season.The Pre-season ranking formula is: 45% the previous 5 seasons of SRS from college football reference (Starting with most recent season: 50%, 30%, 10%, 5%, 5%), 25% the 2-year recruiting average from Rivals (Starting with most recent class: 25%, 75%), 25% Experience Points from Phil Steele's Experience Chart, 5% Head Coaching continuity based on how many years the current Head Coach has been at the school (Max 10 years).For this poll, the tier separations occurred after the following ranks: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11, 13, 18, 20, 21, 22, 27. Georgia Tech and Kansas State just missed out on the rankings as they were in the final tier, but I ranked them 4th and 5th within the tier. I feel bad that there are no G5 teams in my rankings as I think Central Florida and Boise State should be ranked. Once the performance-based ranking begins to be included I'm assuming more G5 teams will appear in my rankings. Boise State was the highest ranked G5 team, but they came in at 35th. Central Florida came in at 40th.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Clemson Tigers
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Washington Huskies The first tier containing multiple teams occurred here. I ranked Washington over Wisconsin because I think Washington has a better QB and Defense.
5 Wisconsin Badgers
6 Michigan Wolverines I was surprised that Michigan came in so high in my computer rankings, occupying a tier by themselves here. I went back into the components of my rankings and it looked like the recruiting 2-year Avg was what bumped them into the Top 10. They were 6th as well in my adjusted 2-year recruiting average.
7 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia was an easy choice to put at the top of this tier over Stanford and Notre Dame.
8 Stanford Cardinal I ranked Stanford over Notre Dame due to being a more experienced team and having maybe the best RB in the country in Bryce Love.
9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
10 Michigan State Spartans It was a tough decision to determine who would be ranked higher between MSU and Auburn and round out the Top 10. I ended up deferring to MSU due to having significantly more experience.
11 Auburn Tigers
12 Oklahoma Sooners I ranked Oklahoma over Miami in this tier due to being more set at QB with Kyler Murray.
13 Miami Hurricanes
14 Mississippi State Bulldogs Mississippi State comes out on top of this 5-team tier. The decision came down to Miss. St. and USC. I went with Miss. St. due to being more experienced and having a more set situation at QB.
15 USC Trojans
16 Florida State Seminoles
17 Penn State Nittany Lions PSU ended up towards the bottom of this tier due to having to replace a lot on offense and losing OC Joe Moorhead. They're above Florida though as they're a team that I would likely not have ranked if I was doing a pure human poll.
18 Florida Gators
19 Texas A&M Aggies
20 Northwestern Wildcats I ranked Texas A&M over Northwestern as it is a bit of a transition year replacing key players in the Secondary and a great RB in Justin Jackson.
21 Texas Longhorns Is Texas back? My computer thinks they may be having them at #21.
22 South Carolina Gamecocks
23 Boston College Eagles Boston College was placed at the top of this tier as they are a talented team all over the place and are a dark horse to win the ACC Atlantic this year.
24 Iowa Hawkeyes
25 Utah Utes Utah takes the last spot in the rankings, beating out Kansas State and Georgia Tech. Utah beats Kansas State due to what I believe to be a superior defense. I believe my computer is drastically over-ranking GT, so it was an easy decision to leave them out.

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