noahthearc Ballot for 2018 Preseason
Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Aug. 19, 2018, 10:15 p.m.
Overall Rationale: This poll is meant to be a balance of expectation and perceived strength. To create this poll, I first created a power ranking of teams that I felt were strong. Obviously, coming from the offseason this can be at times just your inner feeling towards teams. Blue Bloods and traditionally successful teams normally get the benefit of the doubt from these sort of power rankings. So to keep from ranking solely teams from power conferences, I made this power ranking with a limit of 4 teams per conference and 5 G5 teams. Next I surveyed and assigned a win-loss percentage to every game on each P5 team’s schedule, aka, I tried to predict the season. This meant I also predicted the conference championship games, overall records, NY6 bowl games, and CFP. I then made a ranking based on my predicted records for every team as if we were heading into bowl season. This ranking will ultimately also help me assess rankings throughout the season because I can assess how expected a loss, upset, or win was at the beginning of the season (from my pov, of course). Finally, I created a composite ranking using my preseason power ranking and expected postseason landscapes by assigning a point value (1 point for a 25th place ranking through to 25 points for 1st place) and adding those values together and ranking from most-to-least points. The only team that featured in both rankings, but failed to make it into the composite was Michigan (preseason 23rd, postseason 24th). Also, any ties were solved by ranking the team predicted to finish higher above the other.
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
0.30 |
| 4 |
USC Trojans
|
2.20 |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.06 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.42 |
| 7 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.54 |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-0.05 |
| 10 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
0.42 |
| 12 |
Auburn Tigers
|
-0.19 |
| 13 |
West Virginia Mountaineers
|
0.68 |
| 14 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
10.69 |
| 15 |
Virginia Tech Hokies
|
0.51 |
| 16 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.78 |
| 17 |
Stanford Cardinal
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
-3.42 |
| 19 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
UCLA Bruins
|
3.95 |
| 22 |
UCF Knights
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
USF Bulls
|
0.87 |
| 25 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Michigan State Spartans
|
2.90 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.72 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.31 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
Total Score: 30.04