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mickeyquicknumbers Ballot for 2018 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 16, 2018, 2:28 p.m.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes
Ahh
whatever. Statistically I think Ohio State on the whole graded out as the
second best team last year behind Alabama. I know they lose a tremendous
amount of talent, but they're closer to Alabama than they are the other 128
teams in the nation as far as being able to "next man up" with
elite recruits. I expect Chase Young and Nick Bosa to edge Clemson for best
pair of DE's in the nation (sorry Michigan). An offense that was overally
pretty great should get even better this year with Webber/Dobbs complimenting
a QB that I don't think will be a drop off from JT Barett and a WR group that
will keep getting better. I have a few minor reservations about Alabama (and
all other teams below them) but no reservations about Ohio State, so I keep
them here for now.
2 Wisconsin Badgers
The
more I think about Wisconsin, the more I love Wisconsin. There's a decent
chance they finish with outright the best offensive line in the nation. They
have a rising sophomore who should be one of the 5-10 best running backs in
the nation, a high efficiency QB, and a WR group that was super young last
year (two freshman, two sophomores in their top 4). The sometimes-laborious
offense will be something of a tank this year. That offensive outlook is
perfect to pair with a defense that was one of the 5-ish best in the nation
last year and returns 7 of their 13ish primary playmakers, I don't think .
What do you get when you pair a top-5 nationally ranked defense an absolute
steamroller offense? You get one of the best teams in the nation.
3 Alabama Crimson Tide
Called
me crazy (or don't), but I think 3rd is a good spot for our defending
champions. First point, I think this will be one of the best Alabama offenses
ever. The OL will be the best it has been in years, the Harris duo at RB I
think will be the best overall running back room since Lacy/Yeldon in 2012,
and Tua *might* be the first true NFL quality QB they've had in the Saban
era. All fine on that front. I have two concerns however dropping them to
3rd. The first is the abnormally high defensive attrition (even for Bama) -
all 6 of their primary DB's are gone; 100% secondary turnover is a really big
deal for everyone, everywhere, including Alabama. The defensive line despite
having an all american type jumbo DE in Raekwon Davis I think will be a rebuilding
unit (think 2013). The other issues that makes me nervous for Alabama is the
coaching turnover, where they have undergone the biggest turnover of staff of
any one year of the Saban era. Tosh Lupoi has been groomed, but it's the
first time they've had someone other than a confirmed guru at DC since 2007.
I don't love Mike Locksley all that much as an offensive architect either.
They are still Alabama, and still have the most talented roster in the nation
outright and the best head coach outright, and so they can't really drop all
that far. I think a 1st round playoff exit seems right for them this year.
4 Washington Huskies
Last
was a letdown in the results column, but Washington was very good regardless.
While Browning didn't take "the next step" he and Miles Gaskin
still form an extremely envious RB/QB combo. Combined with the bulk of the
defense returning, including almost every major playmaker sans the elite Vita
Vea; I see nobody else with the combination of experience, talent, and high
quality coaching on both sides of the ball in the Pac12 having a good
argument for moving in front of them going into the season.
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia
is tough cookie to pin down this preseason. While they are quickly getting to
that Ohio State/Alabama level of talent, I think Smarts recruiting efforts
need about one more year to translate to them putting together a continuous
stream of goliath teams. I think even with the passing game taking a step
forward, this team as a whole will dip slightly from where they were last
year due sheerly to the loss of volume of veterans in Chubb, Michell, Wynn at
LT, Roquan Smith, Trenton thompson, Lorenzo Carter, Aaron Davis, Dominick
Sanders, John Atkins, Davin Belamy, Malcolm Parrish & Reggie Carter.
6 Michigan Wolverines There have been a good number deep dives *why* Michigan underperformed their 2017 expecations (by my count, they underperformed by one game, which is fine). The passing game was truly atrocious last year, and upgrading from 2017 passing to "decent" - which is what I think the floor for Patterson is - will be a world of difference. The defense was young last year and will return to being one of the 2-3 best in the nation this year. The run game was serviceable and now likely complemented by a passing game that is serviceable I think Michigan is looking at a top-30 type offense; combine those together and you have IMO the 6th best team in the nation. In fact, I would argue that the biggest difference between 2018 Michigan and 2018 Clemson is that Michigan will have better QB play than what Clemson gets out of Bryant or a true freshman in Lawrence.
7 Clemson Tigers
Clemson
was about the 6thish best team last year; with some serious flaws and some
amazing individual units balancing out to make for a great team. I expect
them to be almost identical in quality to 2017, so I I keep them here at 7.
The defense was one of the best in the nation outright (S&P+ 2nd), and
returns a true god-level defensive line. They'll miss a few good pieces in
the back 7; but adequate replacements for O'Daniel, Van Smith, and Ryan
Carter are all they need to maintain uber-elite defensive status, especially
with Venables at the the helm. Offensively, I'm not sure Clemson was even
top-25 last year. Kelly Bryant had problems as a passer, and I'm not sure
Lawrence will be the answer until 2019. The run game was more reliable - but
neither stood up particularly well against the singular elite defense they
played last year. The good news for them is that I don't think they play an
elite defense at all in the regular season, and so they should be primed for
another playoff run via crushing their opponent's offense one at a time.
8 Michigan State Spartans Michigan State's "rebuilding" year last year ended with them having a borderline top-5 defense in the nation, which returns the vast majority of its starters and 2-deep. They lost Harlon Barnett at DC, but Dantonio will not let this team's defense fall off from the loss of a DC as Narduzzi's departure showed. Lewerke's emergence and and OL maturing this year = a step forward for the offense as I think MSU moves from being just outside of the top-10 to just inside of it.
9 Auburn Tigers Regardless of everything, every year, predicting Auburn feels like a shot in the dark. Stidham and an improving group of receivers should open up the passing game this year; but the running game will need to rely more on Martin who I'm not sure can replicate the strong ground game they had last year from Pettway and Johnson. The total offensive line reset has me nervous, but everyone outside of the top-5 or 6 teams have question marks littering their starting lineup. Defensively the front 7 will be deep and talented, being defined by a top-5 quality defensive line, while Kevin Steele continues to baffle LSU and Clemson fans everywhere.
10 Mississippi State Bulldogs Call me part of the hype train if you want. But Joe Morehead's similar philosophied offense looks like be a great shape to move forward with the team that Dan Mullen built. Nick Fitzgerald is deeply flawed but experienced enough to make some strides into competent passing under Morehead's schemes, which was undoubtedly their biggest issue last year. Defensively Schoop and Grantham are in the same tier of DC's and this defense which was quite good last year returns all but 3 members of its 2-deep which means big things to come for this season. A 9-3 type season with a difficult schedule feels just right for this squad.
11 Boise State Broncos Seems like an easy pick for the G5 major bowl bid. 11-3 last year with Rypien and Mattison ready to tag team an experienced offense, and 10 starters back from one of the top-4 non-P5 defenses. With Fresno State (at home) and Oklahoma State (in something of a rebuild) I think an 11-1 regular season is an easy prediction to make for this team that will have more collective experience than they've had in a looooong time.
12 Stanford Cardinal
I
picked Stanford higher than most last year. That was a mistake for three
reasons. First, the passing game took a while to find itself - that *should*
not be quite as much of an issue this year as I expect Costello to mature or
be beaten by a player who does make the passing game very good. Second, the
offensive line had some uncharacteristic issues (stanford ranked 101st in
rushing success rate), which I think will also be fixed with the maturation
of some of the best recruits in the nation. Third, the defense was
top-to-bottom lacking. They lose a tremendous amount of experience this year.
I think the offense will return to being on the top offenses in the nation,
but the defense scares me too much to put them any higher.
13 Florida State Seminoles
A
tricky ranking for sure. FSU still has one of the 5 or 6 most talented teams
in the nation, regardless of their abomination of a 2017 season. The offense,
while probably not becoming elite overnight, should still take tremendous
leaps forward moving to a run-dominant system with plausibly one of the 3-4 best RB duos in the nation in Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick. Quarterback play will also
likely see a large improvement, no longer relying on a true freshman to
execute a notoriously difficult pro style scheme. Defensively, moving on from
Charles Kelly at DC should make all the difference. Despite losing 7
starters, the Seminoles starting 11 will likely comprise two 5-star defensive
linemen and two 5-star corners, with 5 of the remaining 7 positions filled by
top-100 nationally ranked recruits. Inexperience with system overhauls (and a
killer slate - playing Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami & Virginia Tech)  will likely cost them 3 games or so. This
is largely a guess of what talent can mature into in one year without
dysfunctional coaching overruning the gameday results.
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish I have some trepidation about Notre Dame's offense this year pushing me down on them compared to most. The loss of Josh Adams (the heart and soul of this offense), their best WR, and 2 of the 5 best offensive lineman in the nation (Nelson & McGlinchey) makes me think Notre Dame will have a non-negligible drop from the 24th ranked offense of 2018. The defense will be carrying the team this year, ranked 27th last year and returning just about every major playmaker as well as a tremendous amount of depth. With that said, the ND defensive turnaround was largely a product of savant Mike Elko's development, and he's gone to TAMU now. I think they'll end up stout-but-not-elite defense and inconsistent offense netting right around 14th nationally.
15 Penn State Nittany Lions
Last
year Penn State ended up being almost underrated. Both the offense and the
defense were borderline top-10 units. This year I think they'll take a step
back, in part because of massive attrition, and in part due to the departure
of offensive savant Joe Morehead. Losing Saquon Barkley's 1900 yards from
scrimmage is big sure, but then also losing go-to receiver Daesean Hamilton,
and go-to tight end target Mike Gesicki make for a trio of bigtime
replacements needed to compliment the offense around Trace McSworley. The
defense too, loses a tremendous amount of experience, including the entire
starting secondary, and the two leading tacklers at linebacker. While I don't
expect Penn State to fall off a cliff thanks to the talent they've amassed
(hello Miles Sanders, Juwon Johnson, Lamont Wade) - I do expect a step back
on both sides of the ball due to personnel; so this seems about right.
16 Miami Hurricanes
Malik
Rosier on the whole played better than anyone expected, and anyone seems to
be remembering right now. If he gets passed for the starting job that means
good things for Miami. The receiving group will miss Berrios and Herndon, but
there is tons of talent waiting in the wings. While the offense should take
steps forward, I have Miami ranked comparatively lower than most polls
because the defensive line is a tremendous question mark for this team. Of
the five lead tacklers, four are leaving, and that could be a huge problem
for a defense that relies on such aggressive line play. As a result I think
they'll finish about 10-3 again.
17 Oklahoma Sooners
A
defense that was noticeably bad retains its defensive coordinator and losses a
considerable amount of experience. A pair of high quality backs, and a very
good receiving group should assuage the loss of Baker Mayfield a bit - but
the dropoff from Baker Mayfield to a "pretty good" QB is
tremendous, and even if the offense remains at a borderline-top-10 level, not
being able to swallow teams whole on the offensive side is going to cost
Oklahoma a couple of games in 2018. I'm sure people will not only not like
how low this ranking is, but the fact that they're still the highest rated
team in the Big 12, but I'm just not seeing what teams from this conference
have the roster to put together a great run this year.
18 Texas Longhorns
Get yr
hot taeks here, I guess. This defense was unspectacularly pretty good last
year - a top-25 national type unit - and with a ton of rising seniors on the
depth chart I think they inch their way into the teens, making them probably
the 2nd best defense in the Big 12 behind TCU. Offensively they were a mess;
I think they find their footing as Ehlinger becomes a sophomore and the
receiving group steps forward with experience. The OL is problematic (less a
big deal in the big-12 than in other conferences) and the running game is in
dire need of an emerging star; but with those kinds of problems you can still
put together a 9-4 type season the way I think texas will.
19 UCF Knights An undefeated top-5ish type team that returns an elite QB with no major holes left by attrition (except *maybe* at DE) ranked 19th preseason? I hate myself for succumbing to this logic but simply put I don't like the fact that Frost and all 9 of his assistants are gone in 2018. Heupel made Missouri look good (after being fired from Oklahoma) but he's a complete unknown as a head coach and being nervous for his debut season is appropriate. I don't think anyone would argue with UCF being ranked in the 7-9th range preseason if the staff continuity had remained.
20 Texas A&M Aggies
In 2010
Jimbo Fisher took an FSU team that had gone 7-6 three times the last four
years, and got them to 10-4 and ranked 16th in the final rankings, his
greatest help in doing so was by hiring an elite defensive coordinator (Mark
Stoops) to shore up a terrible defense. Sound familiar? This time he's doing
it in a much much tougher division, and with perhaps some more roster issues,
but I expect a transformation nonetheless. TAMU direly needs new skill
position players to emerge, but Nick Starkel has the potential to transform
the offense into a top-25ish unit; and Mike Elko will quickly improve a
defense with several unheralded defensive talents (Dodson, Aalaka, Durham,
Myles Jones, Charles Oliver) that were unable to turn into a cohesive
defensive unit under Chavis.
21 TCU Horned Frogs More than any specific personnel reason, I have TCU ranked because Gary Patterson has earned my trust as head coach to whip together a team out of whatever he has available. The defense was probably the best in the Big 12 last year, and undergoes a partial rebuild with some key losses (Boesen, Howard, Orr, Texada were quite a quartet of playmakers), and the offense is functionally starting from scratch (4 new offensive linemen and no Kenny Trill) but unlike any other team in this conference I'm pretty comfortable with them regardless. Darius Anderson could have a big year ahead (he was more efficient than Kyle HIcks anyways) and Shawn Robinson has had several years to incubate as a backup. 
22 West Virginia Mountaineers As of right now I'm not predicting a single Big 12 team to be better than 9-3 this year; but that also means I think there will be a cluster of teams at the top with 8-4/9-3 type seasons. West Virginia last year had a fun offense and a horrific defense, but I think that both will creep up enough this year (with maybe the best WR/QB combo in the nation) to ease them into the 8-4 quality range.
23 Boston College Eagles
Boston
College is my true wildcard of 2018, and frankly is only here because this is
a power ranking - their schedule is impossibly difficult. With that said,
they've got some excellent component parts on their defense (Zach Allen,
Lukas Denis, Will Harris, Isaac Yiadom, John Lamot) to have a near-2015
quality defense; and this time potentially an offense to match. They have one
of the best RB's in the ACC now with AJ Dillon, a quarterback who is now a
sophomore instead of a freshman (this typifies improvement), return their
entire receiving core group, and might have one of the best OL's in the ACC
this year as well. Last year they ranked right around 100th in offensive
S&P+, but I think that leap can be massive in 2019. A top-20ish defense
with a top-40ish offense should be able to sneak their way into a top-25
overall ranking.
24 South Carolina Gamecocks I think south Carolina overperformed their actual team quality a bit last year; which if I'm being optimistic is the first time Muschamp can probably say that so that's a nice breakthrough.  An offense that was frankly pretty bad last year returns just about every key player and also get's back Deebo Samuels and maybe most importantly now has an OC that isn't Kurt flippin' Roper. I expect big leaps into "decency" on offense, and a defense that was probably just outside of the T25 in quality last year to be comfortably within it in 2018. It seems like there is an opportunity for at least 1 SEC East team to fall upward into a 9-4 type season, and while I was briefly tempted to put UF in, South Carolina has the more convincing collection of arguments so here they are.
25 USC Trojans Nothing about USC looks particularly promising on the surface except for a scattered position or two. But there are only 3 teams that are outright more talented than them going down the whole roster (and those teams are ranked 1st 3rd and 5th), so imagine the Trojans will end up just sort of meandering around with true freshman QB growing pains this year but still end up with a borderline-ranked quality team.

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