Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Aug. 19, 2018, 12:28 p.m.
Overall Rationale: My ballot this week draws heavily on a team's performance in 2017, as we haven't had any actual football to watch this season. Once we're a few weeks into the season, I plan to bring in a computer model and switch over to a hybrid ballot, with increasing weight on the computer component as the season progresses -- I'll have more on that when I roll out my first hybrid poll. First N Out - FSU, NC State, and FAU
| Rank | Team | Reason | 
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama Crimson Tide | While Alabama has some position weaknesses that might weigh on them this season, they're the returning national champions and they haven't done anything to fall from first. | 
| 2 |  Clemson Tigers | Despite falling short last season, the Tigers still find themselves ranked near the top as we approach the 2018 season. | 
| 3 |  Georgia Bulldogs | While Georgia has lost some players to the NFL, I think they bring back a very solid team, good for #3 overall. | 
| 4 |  Ohio State Buckeyes | Ohio State went 12-2 last season, with their worst loss coming at a feisty Iowa, and I think they're in a good position to make another playoff push this season. | 
| 5 |  Wisconsin Badgers | Wisconsin finished last season 13-1, with their only loss in the B1G Championship Game, and looks poised to have a similar performance again this season. | 
| 6 |  Auburn Tigers | Auburn had a very good 2017, defeating national champion Alabama, and are looking good heading into 2018. | 
| 7 |  Penn State Nittany Lions | Penn State lost a fair amount on offense, along with their offensive coordinator, but they still look to be in a strong position this season following a very good showing last year. | 
| 8 |  Oklahoma Sooners | 2017 Oklahoma performed very well, but I'm hesitant to rank the 2018 team higher until I see how they perform without Baker Mayfield. | 
| 9 |  Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Notre Dame went 10-3 in 2017, with their worst loss coming against a hot Miami team; they look positioned to make another good run in 2018. | 
| 10 |  Michigan State Spartans | Michigan State had some struggles last season, including a shellacking by Ohio State, but they went 10-3 and look poised for another good year. | 
| 11 |  Washington Huskies | I was fairly unimpressed by the Huskies last season, as I think they benefited from a relatively weak schedule, and that carries over into my ranking here. | 
| 12 |  Miami Hurricanes | While Miami will have some very strong positions this season, they have enough short on experience that I hesitate to rank them higher. | 
| 13 |  Stanford Cardinal | Stanford got off to a rocky start last season, and didn't end the season the way they would have liked, but 10-4 is still nothing to sneeze at and Stanford looks to be in a good position going into the 2018 season. | 
| 14 |  USC Trojans | The Trojans lost a couple tough games last season, but the bigger challenge for them will be overcoming the loss of Sam Darnold. | 
| 15 |  TCU Horned Frogs | TCU went 11-3 last season, with two of those losses coming to Oklahoma; I think they're in good shape for 2018. | 
| 16 |  Oklahoma State Cowboys | Oklahoma State's 2017 record, 10-3, makes for a promising start to 2018, but Mike Gundy cut off his mullet, so who knows anymore. | 
| 17 |  Virginia Tech Hokies | Virginia Tech, 9-4 in 2017, certainly benefited from a weak schedule last season, but they didn't really lose any games they shouldn't have and have a chance to prove themselves in 2018. | 
| 18 |  Mississippi State Bulldogs | While getting a new head coach can be daunting for a program, Mississippi State looks like it will hit the ground running with former Penn State OC Joe Moorhead. | 
| 19 |  LSU Tigers | Apart from a baffling loss to Troy, LSU had a strong 2017 campaign and looks to build on that work in 2018. | 
| 20 |  Northwestern Wildcats | I think Northwestern is criminally underrated; while starting last season 2-3, the team reeled off eight straight wins and looks good going into 2018. | 
| 21 |  Iowa Hawkeyes | Despite going 8-5 last season, three of Iowa's losses (and three of their wins) were within one possession and I think they end up a bit higher this season. | 
| 22 |  Michigan Wolverines | Michigan went 8-5 last season, including losing their last three games; I'm not nearly as optimistic about their 2018 campaign as many others. | 
| 23 |  Boise State Broncos | Boise State, 11-3 in 2017, looks to be slightly ahead of their G5 competition as the season begins. | 
| 24 |  UCF Knights | UCF's undefeated season was certainly impressive, and I think they deserved more recognition than they received, but the loss of Scott Frost makes me dubious about a repeat performance. | 
| 25 |  Memphis Tigers | Memphis had a very good season at 11-3 and look to be one of the better-positioned teams in the American this season. | 
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness | 
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 | 
| 2 |  Clemson Tigers | 0.00 | 
| 3 |  Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 | 
| 4 |  Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.00 | 
| 5 |  Wisconsin Badgers | 0.00 | 
| 6 |  Auburn Tigers | 0.26 | 
| 7 |  Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.09 | 
| 8 |  Oklahoma Sooners | 0.00 | 
| 9 |  Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.27 | 
| 10 |  Michigan State Spartans | 0.00 | 
| 11 |  Washington Huskies | -0.42 | 
| 12 |  Miami Hurricanes | 0.00 | 
| 13 |  Stanford Cardinal | 0.00 | 
| 14 |  USC Trojans | 0.00 | 
| 15 |  TCU Horned Frogs | 0.00 | 
| 16 |  Oklahoma State Cowboys | 0.63 | 
| 17 |  Virginia Tech Hokies | 0.01 | 
| 18 |  Mississippi State Bulldogs | 0.00 | 
| 19 |  LSU Tigers | 0.13 | 
| 20 |  Northwestern Wildcats | 1.85 | 
| 21 |  Iowa Hawkeyes | 3.78 | 
| 22 |  Michigan Wolverines | -0.90 | 
| 23 |  Boise State Broncos | 0.00 | 
| 24 |  UCF Knights | 0.00 | 
| 25 |  Memphis Tigers | 0.00 | 
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness | 
|---|---|
|  West Virginia Mountaineers | 0.62 | 
|  Florida State Seminoles | 0.51 | 
|  Texas Longhorns | 0.00 | 
Total Score: 9.48