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chrisb19 Ballot for 2018 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 20, 2018, 10:25 a.m.

Overall Rationale: The top half of these ranking were a lot easier - we know what Bama, UGA, Clemson, Oklahoma, etc, will look like. Everyone loses talent and there's always coaching turnover, but those are pretty known quantities. Once you get past the top tier of each conference, things get muddled - more turnover, more question marks, a wider margin for either improvement or regression, and more "maybe maybe not" games on the schedule. There are 10 teams that I almost put on and 10 teams I almost left off. There's a ton of fluidity with preseason rankings, and there will be some huge moves after week 1 because of some of the epic match-ups we get to witness (Washington/Auburn, Miami/LSU, VT/FSU). That's part of why I love college football. Because outside of a few sure bets, it's impossible to anticipate how the season will shake out. There are so many teams that seem to be ABOUT the same skill level and nobody knows who will excel and who will regress. Let's watch some football.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Nick Saban is a case of "until he proves me wrong." As nervous as I am about the turnover on the coaching staff (two new coordinators) and defensive talent sent to the NFL, plus the QB "battle," it just never feels safe to bet against the dynasty of Saban. The West is in another rebuilding year outside of the perennial powers and it seems like, yet again, the Iron Bowl will likely determine a spot in the SEC Championship.
2 Clemson Tigers Clemson continues to recruit well under Sweeney and their new QB could bring them up to a new level of play on offense. On defense, Venables continues to put up stout defensive units. Aside from a week 2 trip to the new-look Aggies, their schedule is heavily backloaded which could be a blessing in terms of integrating Lawrence) or a curse (a lot of tough games in a row to wear them down). They still feel like odds-on favorites to win the ACC and have a shot at the playoff.
3 Georgia Bulldogs UGA feels a lot like Bama - a manageable schedule aside from the Auburn game and a tricky week 2 trip to a rebuilt SCar team, a lot of guys leaving on defense, and a question at quarterback. Unlike Bama, however, there's virtually no coaching turnover, so an offense and defense that were both clicking last season shouldn't suffer too much lost production. Taking advantage of Tennessee and Florida rebuilding, Georgia should be back in contention for the SEC title and a shot at the playoff.
4 Oklahoma Sooners I was really impressed with Lincoln Riley in year one. Having Bob Stoops calling the defense didn't hurt, either. The Big XII is still on a bit of a downswing (unless you buy the West Virginia hype), so Oklahoma's schedule will be manageable again. Of course, Baker Mayfield is a huge difference maker and they're going to lose a lot of production with him gone. But I think there's enough continuity that they remain the Big XII's best shot at returning to the playoff.
5 Washington Huskies Washington returns most of their offensive production in Browning and Gaskin, as well as their defensive coordinator who came out of nowhere to put up impressive numbers with that unit. The Pac12 North is a 2-team race unless Oregon surprises some people in Cristobal's first year. The Huskies' week one contest against Auburn is going to show a lot of people whether either of these teams deserve the preseason hype. A loss will narrow their path to the playoff, even though both teams will still be among the favorites in the division.
6 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin returns their entire O line and Jonathan Taylor, which coming off a 13-win season, is a lot. Despite some rebuilding on defense they should be among the favorites to return to the Big Ten title game and potentially win it this year. Wisconsin has the added benefit of being in the easier division.
7 Auburn Tigers Auburn loses 2 of their star RBs, but Malzahn's run game scheme turns out 1000-yard rushers consistently. Paired with one of the more exciting QBs in the league, Auburn should continue to have an aggressive and efficient offense paired with Kevin Steele's reliably stout defensive unit. A brutal schedule that opens with Washington and closes, as usual, with games against UGA and Bama in the span of 3 weeks will certainly test this team. But if they take 2 out of 3, they should be odds-on favorites to get into the playoff, SEC title or no.
8 Penn State Nittany Lions The good news: Trace McSorley is back. The bad news is that Joe Moorhead and Saquon Barkley are gone. A tough schedule that includes both Michigan teams, Ohio State, and Wisconsin is going to give them a lot to prove, but Penn State still feels like one of the top teams in the Big Ten.
9 Ohio State Buckeyes While Urban Meyer hasn't reached the stratospheric heights of Nick Saban, he's another guy that just seems to reload talent on the field and the sidelines every year. If they can weather the Zach Smith scandal and a September that features games against TCU and Penn State, they should have one of the easier back halves of the season.
10 Miami Hurricanes Mark Richt is a perennial 10-win coach and until he fixes his defensive problems, his Miami team will have the same ceiling that was all too familiar to UGA fans for 15 years. I anticipate a very similar season to last year - 10 wins in the relatively easy ACC and then getting exposed in a bowl game against a 10 win team from a more competitive conference.
11 Stanford Cardinal Bryce Love is back, David Shaw is still there, and Stanford will continue to bring their brand of jumbo packages and body-shot football to the Pac12. While they're not overloaded with talent like Washington, they're still widely considered the second best team in the Pac12 North. A tricky schedule that opens with SDSU and then features a week 2 matchup against USC, plus November dates with both Washington and UCLA will make it a tough run to come through unscathed. But they're still one of the top teams in the conference.
12 Michigan Wolverines Harbaugh has taken longer than most people expected to get Michigan back to the level he was hired for. A lot of that has been due to the inconsistency at the QB position. Shea Patterson showed a ton of potential under Hugh Freeze at Ole Mill, and if he fixes Michigan's problems there they could have a better-than-usual offense coupled with a stifling defense. We won't know until we see how quickly Patterson fits into that system.
13 Michigan State Spartans State is coming off of two very uneven years for the very even Mark Dantonio. They return a lot of production from last year's ten-win team and should be able to hang around and make things interesting in the Big Ten East.
14 TCU Horned Frogs
15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame, like Sparty, had a disappointing 2016 and then rebounded in a big way last year after cleaning house and firing most of their assistant coaches. This year Kelly has yet another new DC but someone who was in the system last year, and his OC returning, as well as a lot of production. They should be set up for another 10-win season.
16 USC Trojans The Pac12 South is in a brutal rebuild right now with new head coaches at UCLA, Arizona, and Arizona State. While Utah will still hang around to challenge USC, and they have to replace Darnold's production at quarterback, they're still favorites to win the South. A tricky schedule that sees their annual match-ups against the Irish and the Cardinal, plus an OOC visit to Tom Herman's resurgent Texas team could provide some landmines to avoid schedule-wise. But they should still finish the season in pole position for a shot at the Pac12 title. Avoiding Washington and Oregon out of the North gives them a slightly easier path.
17 LSU Tigers LSU is perennially a mystery team for me. After getting rid of Les Miles for having the ceiling he had, they made Ed Orgeron their head coach. So far it's been difficult to see whether Coach O has a higher ceiling than being the 3rd best team in the SEC West, but nobody has had success knocking off Alabama. They always look like a 9- or 10-win team with the possibility to get a couple of big scalps. This year the Tigers host UGA in what should be one of the best cross-divisional match-ups of the season. When Miles was forced out it was due to a severe lack of offensive production and an inability to develop good QB play. Now LSU has an Ohio St transfer taking snaps and a new offensive coordinator, coupled with Dave Aranda as DC, one of the best assistant coaches in the league. An opening weekend clash against Miami will do a lot to set unrealistic expectations for one of these teams, and drawing UGA from the East gives them a trickier schedule than usual. A lot depends on what the new offense looks like.
18 West Virginia Mountaineers A lot of people are high on the Mountaineers but I will never fully trust an offense that got defeated by an especially stiff breeze in Morgantown a few years ago. Yes, they return Will Grier. But I think a lot of the hype is just people casting about for a third team to like in the Big XII given the uncertainty surrounding a lot of programs in that conference. Oklahoma remains the clear number 1, TCU is a solid second choice, and then it gets really muddled really quickly. Will Texas make the jump? Can Oklahoma State rebuild quickly enough? Maybe this is the year that the Mountaineers put it all together but for me they still have a ceiling around 8-9 wins.
19 Virginia Tech Hokies Justin Fuente has shown his Memphis days weren't a fluke in his first two seasons at VT. Keeping Bud Foster around was a huge coup for him. This year is a young team but in the ACC they should have a decently high floor if a pretty low ceiling. They won't compete with Miami or Clemson but they should be able to hang around near the top of the table outside of that top echelon.
20 Oregon Ducks Oregon had a rough offseason with Willie Taggart decamping to the talent-rich fields of Florida State. This also marks their third new head coach in as many seasons. But they have an elite QB (if he stays healthy) and they managed to keep their defensive coordinator, Jim Leavitt, who made a giant leap forward in his first year. Will it be enough to challenge their rivals Washington for the Pac12 North? Unlikely. But they should put together an 8 win season with a lot of room to improve next year.
21 UCF Knights How much was last season a flash in the pan and how much was owed to Scott Frost, now the head coach at Nebraska? Only time will tell. UCF loses a lot of talent both on the field and on the sidelines, with the relatively unproven Josh Heupel (formerly OC at Mizzou) taking over. But it's really hard to leave a team that went 13-0 with a bowl win over Auburn out of the rankings entirely.
22 South Carolina Gamecocks I was not a big Will Muschamp fan when he went to Florida. His offense was totally hapless and the job looked way, way too big for him. While Kirby Smart is equally explosive on the sidelines, he had a much better sense of discipline in his first year as a head coach. I think Muschamp's time at Auburn going back to DC was beneficial for him, as are the lowered expectations at South Carolina. With Tennessee and Florida both rebuilding (for the 2nd time in recent memory), South Carolina seems poised for the kind of 9- or 10-win season that Spurrier delivered before abruptly departing. They return a lot of offensive production as well. I still think that's more a factor of the competition in the East than their talent level, which is why they're down among the end of the rankings. A week 2 matchup against UGA and a week 14 matchup against Clemson will tell us a lot about exactly where Muschamp has this program.
23 Florida State Seminoles Taggert inherits an FSU team that had a BAD 2017 but has a lot of pieces in place to improve in 2018. They could improve by a couple of wins and surprise everyone, but at the outset it looks like they're the 4th best team in the ACC and on track for an 8-win season this year. An opening weekend tilt against VT will be a lot of fun in shaping the ACC race.
24 Mississippi State Bulldogs Miss State lost one of my favorite head coaches when UF made the very obvious decision to poach Dan Mullen. Joe Moorhead is taking over his first HC gig at a school with VERY fixed ceilings, but he also inherits one of the strongest dual-threat QBs in the SEC. Once you get past Bama and Auburn the SEC West gets muddled in a hurry. There's a chance that the Bulldogs pull off an 8-win season, or they could finish below .500. This slot could really go to Miss St, Ole Miss, or A&M. There are a lot of known unknowns right now in the SEC West.
25 Texas Longhorns I'm more bullish than most on the Longhorns (no pun intended). Todd Orlando is one of the best DCs in the country and Herman's lucky he hasn't gotten poached for a head coach gig yet. Last year Texas had a strong defense and a sputtering offense. If they can improve on offense and not lose too much production on defense, they're going to be solidly in the second tier of Big XII schools (the tier that isn't Oklahoma and TCU). I'm rooting for them to be back, even if I only see an 8 or 9-win team this season.

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