Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Aug. 19, 2018, 6:53 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Disclaimer: I think preseason polls are dumb because all we have to go on is what teams have said to the media all off-season. I prefer to let on-field results speak for themselves. The opinions contained below reflect my attempt to over-correct for all the hype and propaganda we've been basking in since January. This poll isn't supposed to be a joke, but it is supposed to expose the problems I see with preseason polls in general. My controversy score will probably be higher than I'm aiming for, but I am still trying to keep it down. I promise the real poll during the season will make much more sense.Put differently, the poll below isn't *too* far from what I think is reasonable, but who can say for sure when we haven't seen anyone play yet?Human poll while my computer poll gorges itself on early-season data. Around week 1-2 I'll switch to hybrid as I tweak settings and manually shift teams around slightly to correct the algorithm, but I'll start listing my algorithm's scores at that point. The first week when I don't make any manual adjustments, I'll switch it to computer. That should be around week 4-6. Expect it to start aligning more closely with the consensus by week 9-10.There is method behind my madness, my rationale is based on the idea that a poll should be predictive, not just descriptive. In service to that idea, I focus on team-level statistics like wins, strength of opponent, and where a team is likely to finish in conference based on all the other statistics. Individual statistics I believe are more subject to variability, and can't be relied upon to predict the results of games week-to-week.Algorithm status: testing and tweaking using old/hypothetical dataAlgorithm completion: 82%SettingsGrowth: 22.5%Ranked: 22.0%Undefeated: 36.0%Loss Quality: 5.5%Road Trip: 18%
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Washington Huskies | If they win all their games they'll be the undisputed #1. For now they're #1 because everyone else tried too hard to not be #1. See below. |
2 | Georgia Bulldogs | Would be #1 but their RB just tore his ACL. |
3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | Dropped a few spots because Nick Saban can't "just s*** out" linebackers. |
4 | Clemson Tigers | After their playoff embarrassment, they need to prove themselves first. That will be tricky given their relatively weak schedule. |
5 | Oklahoma Sooners | Probably shouldn't be this high. See notes below. |
6 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Not sure about Urban yet. In a vacuum they're #2 or so. |
7 | Auburn Tigers | Can't put them higher because they lost to UCF. Can't put them lower because they haven't had any offseason problems, really. |
8 | Wisconsin Badgers | Dropped a few spots after the news about their top receiver. |
9 | TCU Horned Frogs | 9-19 or so are very uncertain for me. Any of these teams could go 12-1 or 8-4. Don't worry about the order. Note that not many of these teams had a lot of media coverage this off-season. |
10 | Miami Hurricanes | |
11 | Penn State Nittany Lions | |
12 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | |
13 | Virginia Tech Hokies | |
14 | West Virginia Mountaineers | |
15 | Stanford Cardinal | They have a returning Stanford Heisman (TM) winner and some engineering schematics titled "Success". |
16 | Michigan State Spartans | |
17 | Florida State Seminoles | |
18 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | |
19 | Michigan Wolverines | Why is Michigan at the back of the 9-19 bloc? Shea Patterson. |
20 | FAU Owls | The Fightin' Freshwaters have no excuse not to run away with the C-USA and land in a NY6. |
21 | USC Trojans | The Darnold's offensive line and receiver corps made him look much better than he actually is. Most of them are still around. USC isn't going away yet. |
22 | UCF Knights | Frost held this team together. Heupel doesn't do defense. UCF will lose some shootouts. |
23 | Oregon Ducks | |
24 | Purdue Boilermakers | Apparently there's a hype train? No, I mean a literal train. A steam locomotive. Because they make boilers? You know what, forget I said anything. |
25 | Boise State Broncos | What poll would be complete without the most consistent G5 team at #25? |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Washington Huskies | 1.06 |
2 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.15 |
3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -0.90 |
4 | Clemson Tigers | -0.55 |
5 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.00 |
6 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.00 |
7 | Auburn Tigers | 0.00 |
8 | Wisconsin Badgers | 0.00 |
9 | TCU Horned Frogs | 0.90 |
10 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.00 |
11 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 |
12 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 1.04 |
13 | Virginia Tech Hokies | 1.01 |
14 | West Virginia Mountaineers | 0.47 |
15 | Stanford Cardinal | 0.00 |
16 | Michigan State Spartans | -0.17 |
17 | Florida State Seminoles | 0.50 |
18 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 0.12 |
19 | Michigan Wolverines | -0.28 |
20 | FAU Owls | 1.86 |
21 | USC Trojans | -0.65 |
22 | UCF Knights | 0.00 |
23 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
24 | Purdue Boilermakers | 1.06 |
25 | Boise State Broncos | -0.05 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 2.80 |
LSU Tigers | 0.32 |
Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
Total Score: 13.90