Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 27, 2026, 8:40 a.m.

Overall Rationale: These rankings are a calculated Strength of Record rating. They are not predictive, but they are derived from an underlying predictive metric.

This ranks teams by how hard their record would be to match. It's a measure of what they've achieved, not what we predict they'll do.

For each team, the model takes an average top-12 team and imagines it playing the team in question's exact schedule: same opponents, same sites, with opponents rated by the same opponent-adjusted system used for the main predictive rankings. It then computes the chance that this hypothetical strong team would finish with a record at least as good as the team being rated. A lower percentage means a more impressive resume: it means even an elite team would struggle to match what this team has actually done.

On the underlying predictive rating: I run a algorithm called ExTAN (https://externaltangents.com/ExTAN/). That algorithm is predictive and bases its formula on in-season results (scores, home/away, and opponent). That algorithm is consistently in the top 20 in metrics tracked on PredictionTracker.com. Those predictive ratings are used to calculate the Strength of Record used in these rankings.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Kentucky Wildcats	33.5%
2	UCLA Bruins	36.9%
3	Miami Hurricanes	46.8%
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	51.2%
5	Indiana Hoosiers	58.3%
6	Utah Utes	65.2%
7	Alabama Crimson Tide	68.0%
8	BYU Cougars	72.1%
9	Ole Miss Rebels	72.1%
10	Georgia Bulldogs	72.5%
11	Texas Longhorns	72.6%
12	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	73.1%
13	Florida Gators	79.7%
14	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	83.0%
15	Tennessee Volunteers	83.9%
16	LSU Tigers	84.2%
17	Northwestern Wildcats	87.3%
18	Missouri Tigers	89.9%
19	SMU Mustangs	90.1%
20	Wisconsin Badgers	90.3%
21	Texas Tech Red Raiders	90.8%
22	UTSA Roadrunners	91.0%
23	Boise State Broncos	92.9%
24	Arizona Wildcats	93.2%
25	Mississippi State Bulldogs	93.2%

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Kentucky Wildcats	1.46
2	UCLA Bruins	0.16
3	Miami Hurricanes	-0.88
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
5	Indiana Hoosiers	0.00
6	Utah Utes	0.00
7	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.39
8	BYU Cougars	0.00
9	Ole Miss Rebels	0.99
10	Georgia Bulldogs	-0.64
11	Texas Longhorns	0.00
12	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	0.00
13	Florida Gators	0.87
14	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-1.93
15	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
16	LSU Tigers	0.00
17	Northwestern Wildcats	0.00
18	Missouri Tigers	1.35
19	SMU Mustangs	0.00
20	Wisconsin Badgers	0.46
21	Texas Tech Red Raiders	-1.27
22	UTSA Roadrunners	0.53
23	Boise State Broncos	0.00
24	Arizona Wildcats	-0.70
25	Mississippi State Bulldogs	0.17

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Houston Cougars	1.29
Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.06

Total Score: 13.16