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mathwrath55 Ballot for 2026 Week 6

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 4, 2026, 10:10 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Predictive model using a Kalman filter to assign an offense and defense rating to all teams across FBS and FCS (offense as the number of points they would score against the average defense, defense as how much better they are than the average defense). Overall rating is (offense-defense), and the difference between Team A and Team B's rating is how much A would be expected to beat B by on a neutral field. Margin of victory matters, and preseason ratings are based on the historical correlations between team ratings in two consecutive years. Data for the last 10 years is loaded in, though earlier data barely matters.

Results will track comparably with other well-known predictive models like FPI and SP+, although this model only considers what happens on the field (albeit including previous years). It is also not unlike the results an Elo model would give if Elo allowed larger jumps for early-season games and allowed for retroactive adjustment of opponent ratings.

At the moment the uncertainty in each team's power rating is a standard deviation of about 7 points, meaning a team like Northwestern could plausibly (within one st. dev.) be anywhere from the actual 7th best team in the country to 28th. So these ratings are pretty low confidence overall.

Rank | Team | Record| Proj Rec| Power | Offense| Defense
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#1 | Alabama | 5-0 |10.7-1.3 | 76.05 | 56.67 | -19.39
#2 | Ohio State | 4-1 | 9.5-2.5 | 74.60 | 51.97 | -22.63
#3 | Notre Dame | 5-0 |11.3-0.7 | 73.16 | 51.36 | -21.80
#4 | Indiana | 5-0 |10.7-1.3 | 72.20 | 48.55 | -23.65
#5 | Georgia | 5-0 |10.4-1.6 | 71.77 | 53.93 | -17.84
#6 | Miami | 5-0 |10.9-1.1 | 71.64 | 51.10 | -20.54
#7 | Texas | 4-0 |10.2-1.8 | 70.90 | 45.44 | -25.46
#8 | Utah | 4-0 |11.0-1.0 | 69.82 | 48.46 | -21.36
#9 | Oregon | 3-1 | 8.8-3.2 | 67.30 | 51.36 | -15.94
#10 | LSU | 4-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 67.05 | 48.41 | -18.64
#11 | Northwestern | 3-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 63.42 | 44.55 | -18.87
#12 | Tennessee | 4-1 | 8.1-3.9 | 62.88 | 46.03 | -16.85
#13 | Iowa | 4-1 | 8.6-3.4 | 61.92 | 40.22 | -21.71
#14 | Texas Tech | 5-0 |10.2-1.8 | 60.87 | 42.85 | -18.02
#15 | Texas A&M | 3-2 | 6.6-5.4 | 60.73 | 41.72 | -19.00
#16 | Florida | 4-1 | 7.6-4.4 | 59.73 | 49.11 | -10.62
#17 | Nebraska | 5-0 | 8.4-3.6 | 59.58 | 45.18 | -14.39
#18 | UCLA | 4-0 | 9.3-2.7 | 59.35 | 46.04 | -13.30
#19 | Missouri | 4-1 | 7.5-4.5 | 58.34 | 41.83 | -16.51
#20 | BYU | 4-0 | 8.5-3.5 | 57.74 | 40.50 | -17.24
#21 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 8.5-3.5 | 57.70 | 40.42 | -17.28
#22 | Wake Forest | 4-1 | 9.1-2.9 | 57.64 | 42.97 | -14.67
#23 | Ole Miss | 3-1 | 7.2-4.8 | 57.33 | 44.83 | -12.50
#24 | Penn State | 3-2 | 8.0-4.0 | 57.21 | 40.14 | -17.07
#25 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 7.7-4.3 | 57.19 | 46.10 | -11.10
#26 | USC | 5-1 | 7.4-4.6 | 57.05 | 45.17 | -11.88
#27 | Pittsburgh | 5-0 | 9.6-2.4 | 56.66 | 41.66 | -15.00
#28 | Baylor | 4-1 | 7.7-4.3 | 56.61 | 41.17 | -15.45
#29 | Auburn | 3-2 | 6.1-5.9 | 56.27 | 38.73 | -17.54
#30 | Kentucky | 4-1 | 7.2-4.8 | 56.08 | 42.44 | -13.64
#31 | James Madison | 5-0 |11.2-0.8 | 55.91 | 43.86 | -12.05
#32 | Oklahoma | 2-2 | 5.5-6.5 | 55.74 | 35.20 | -20.54
#33 | Houston | 4-1 | 8.0-4.0 | 55.70 | 44.00 | -11.70
#34 | Florida State | 3-2 | 6.7-5.3 | 55.36 | 41.04 | -14.32
#35 | New Mexico | 4-1 |10.3-1.7 | 55.20 | 41.73 | -13.48
#36 | Arizona | 4-1 | 7.7-4.3 | 55.12 | 39.79 | -15.32
#37 | Iowa State | 3-2 | 6.7-5.3 | 55.01 | 42.36 | -12.66
#38 | Kansas State | 3-1 | 7.9-4.1 | 54.95 | 42.61 | -12.34
#39 | Boise State | 4-1 | 8.7-2.3 | 54.83 | 41.12 | -13.70
#40 | Louisville | 2-3 | 6.4-5.6 | 54.74 | 44.13 | -10.61
#41 | Duke | 4-0 | 8.5-3.5 | 54.72 | 39.91 | -14.81
#42 | South Carolina | 2-3 | 4.8-7.2 | 53.44 | 42.39 | -11.05
#43 | Michigan | 3-2 | 5.8-6.2 | 53.13 | 36.72 | -16.42
#44 | UCF | 3-2 | 6.8-5.2 | 52.19 | 37.54 | -14.66
#45 | NC State | 3-2 | 7.4-4.6 | 52.08 | 42.44 | -9.64
#46 | Vanderbilt | 3-2 | 5.5-6.5 | 51.85 | 37.84 | -14.01
#47 | Washington | 3-2 | 5.4-6.6 | 51.75 | 36.59 | -15.16
#48 | Virginia | 3-2 | 7.1-4.9 | 51.42 | 36.80 | -14.62
#49 | Minnesota | 4-1 | 6.2-5.8 | 51.04 | 37.33 | -13.71
#50 | Kansas | 2-2 | 5.2-6.8 | 50.81 | 38.84 | -11.97
#51 | SMU | 4-1 | 8.1-3.9 | 50.70 | 39.59 | -11.11
#52 | Illinois | 2-3 | 4.5-7.5 | 50.62 | 38.88 | -11.74
#53 | TCU | 2-3 | 4.7-7.3 | 50.59 | 33.89 | -16.70
#54 | Oklahoma State | 3-1 | 6.5-5.5 | 49.38 | 37.72 | -11.66
#55 | North Carolina | 2-2 | 5.3-6.7 | 48.43 | 35.13 | -13.30
#56 | Toledo | 4-1 |10.3-1.7 | 48.27 | 42.76 | -5.51
#57 | Virginia Tech | 4-1 | 7.6-4.4 | 48.13 | 40.83 | -7.30
#58 | Oregon State | 3-2 | 6.8-4.2 | 48.13 | 37.76 | -10.37
#59 | North Texas | 3-2 | 8.5-3.5 | 47.87 | 46.27 | -1.60
#60 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 6.3-5.7 | 47.73 | 38.03 | -9.69
#61 | Clemson | 3-2 | 6.7-5.3 | 46.82 | 33.53 | -13.29
#62 | Michigan State | 2-3 | 4.3-7.7 | 46.61 | 31.78 | -14.83
#63 | Memphis | 4-1 | 8.7-3.3 | 46.24 | 39.82 | -6.42
#64 | West Virginia | 3-2 | 5.2-6.8 | 46.09 | 41.68 | -4.41
#65 | North Dakota State | 5-0 |10.2-1.8 | 45.95 | 34.46 | -11.49
#66 | Army | 2-2 | 6.7-4.3 | 45.24 | 35.22 | -10.02
#67 | Arizona State | 2-2 | 5.2-6.8 | 45.02 | 39.43 | -5.59
#68 | Fresno State | 4-1 | 7.3-3.7 | 45.00 | 33.04 | -11.96
#69 | Texas State | 2-3 | 5.4-5.6 | 44.63 | 40.42 | -4.21
#70 | Purdue | 2-3 | 4.2-7.8 | 44.61 | 38.27 | -6.34
#71 | UTSA | 4-1 | 8.5-3.5 | 44.34 | 36.43 | -7.91
#72 | Arkansas | 2-3 | 3.3-8.7 | 43.91 | 34.09 | -9.82
#73 | Georgia Tech | 1-3 | 3.5-8.5 | 43.32 | 35.32 | -8.00
#74 | South Florida | 4-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 42.93 | 32.08 | -10.85
#75 | Georgia State | 4-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 42.48 | 37.46 | -5.01
#76 | Louisiana Tech | 2-2 | 7.9-4.1 | 42.25 | 37.27 | -4.98
#77 | Syracuse | 2-2 | 4.3-7.7 | 40.91 | 34.97 | -5.94
#78 | Liberty | 4-1 | 9.4-2.6 | 40.75 | 32.57 | -8.18
#79 | Temple | 2-3 | 6.5-5.5 | 40.47 | 32.74 | -7.74
#80 | Tulane | 2-2 | 6.2-5.8 | 40.29 | 28.95 | -11.33
#81 | South Dakota State | 5-1 | 9.9-2.1 | 39.70 | 33.77 | -5.93
#82 | Colorado | 2-3 | 3.5-8.5 | 39.65 | 29.17 | -10.49
#83 | San Diego State | 2-3 | 4.6-6.4 | 39.24 | 29.82 | -9.41
#84 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 2.5-9.5 | 39.23 | 36.83 | -2.40
#85 | UNLV | 3-2 | 7.1-4.9 | 38.59 | 30.52 | -8.08
#86 | East Carolina | 2-2 | 6.5-5.5 | 38.45 | 30.02 | -8.43
#87 | Tulsa | 3-2 | 6.8-5.2 | 38.33 | 30.93 | -7.40
#88 | UConn | 2-3 | 5.7-6.3 | 38.31 | 35.50 | -2.81
#89 | Louisiana | 4-1 | 8.3-3.7 | 37.88 | 30.80 | -7.08
#90 | Washington State | 1-4 | 3.1-7.9 | 37.84 | 29.00 | -8.83
#91 | Western Michigan | 3-2 | 7.8-4.2 | 37.75 | 27.88 | -9.87
#92 | Maryland | 2-3 | 3.5-8.5 | 37.71 | 33.36 | -4.35
#93 | Utah State | 1-4 | 3.5-7.5 | 37.50 | 28.09 | -9.41
#94 | Youngstown State | 4-2 | 8.3-2.7 | 36.47 | 33.58 | -2.89
#95 | Air Force | 3-1 | 7.4-4.6 | 35.93 | 30.36 | -5.58
#96 | Florida Atlantic | 4-1 | 6.6-5.4 | 35.84 | 34.67 | -1.17
#97 | App State | 3-1 | 7.3-4.7 | 35.51 | 32.48 | -3.03
#98 | California | 2-3 | 3.6-8.4 | 35.36 | 31.63 | -3.73
#99 | Georgia Southern | 2-3 | 5.1-6.9 | 34.82 | 30.75 | -4.07
#100 | Boston College | 2-3 | 3.0-9.0 | 34.74 | 25.83 | -8.91
#101 | Montana State | 5-1 | 9.8-2.2 | 34.61 | 29.71 | -4.89
#102 | South Alabama | 3-2 | 6.4-5.6 | 34.07 | 35.45 | 1.38
#103 | Navy | 1-3 | 3.5-7.5 | 34.05 | 27.56 | -6.49
#104 | South Dakota | 4-2 | 8.1-3.9 | 34.03 | 33.87 | -0.16
#105 | Arkansas State | 2-3 | 5.8-6.2 | 33.81 | 28.74 | -5.07
#106 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 3.6-7.4 | 33.55 | 38.84 | 5.29
#107 | Miami (OH) | 2-3 | 6.4-5.6 | 33.28 | 30.35 | -2.93
#108 | Jacksonville State | 3-2 | 7.0-5.0 | 33.16 | 28.95 | -4.21
#109 | Kennesaw State | 1-3 | 5.6-6.4 | 32.96 | 26.64 | -6.32
#110 | Troy | 2-2 | 5.6-6.4 | 32.94 | 26.93 | -6.00
#111 | Montana | 5-1 | 9.4-2.6 | 32.80 | 31.76 | -1.04
#112 | Stanford | 2-3 | 3.8-8.2 | 31.97 | 29.86 | -2.11
#113 | Ohio | 3-2 | 7.1-4.9 | 31.75 | 28.37 | -3.38
#114 | New Mexico State | 2-3 | 5.6-6.4 | 31.35 | 28.83 | -2.52
#115 | Nevada | 1-3 | 4.1-7.9 | 31.06 | 28.52 | -2.54
#116 | Central Michigan | 3-2 | 7.1-4.9 | 31.01 | 26.30 | -4.71
#117 | Sam Houston | 1-3 | 5.0-7.0 | 30.27 | 29.07 | -1.20
#118 | Austin Peay | 5-1 | 9.9-2.1 | 30.16 | 29.72 | -0.44
#119 | Old Dominion | 1-4 | 3.9-8.1 | 30.03 | 26.36 | -3.67
#120 | Illinois State | 4-2 | 7.6-4.4 | 29.94 | 27.36 | -2.57
#121 | Rice | 1-4 | 2.7-9.3 | 29.80 | 26.21 | -3.59
#122 | Stephen F. Austin | 6-0 |11.2-0.8 | 29.79 | 27.17 | -2.62
#123 | San José State | 3-2 | 6.5-6.5 | 29.69 | 26.28 | -3.41
#124 | Missouri State | 1-3 | 4.6-7.4 | 29.47 | 29.00 | -0.47
#125 | UAB | 3-2 | 5.0-7.0 | 29.44 | 26.38 | -3.07
#126 | Delaware | 2-3 | 5.5-6.5 | 29.43 | 27.03 | -2.40
#127 | Florida International | 2-2 | 5.7-6.3 | 29.31 | 21.65 | -7.66
#128 | Coastal Carolina | 1-4 | 3.3-8.7 | 28.95 | 26.86 | -2.09
#129 | North Dakota | 5-1 | 7.7-4.3 | 28.82 | 32.48 | 3.66
#130 | Eastern Michigan | 3-3 | 5.5-6.5 | 28.62 | 26.68 | -1.94
#131 | Southern Miss | 1-3 | 3.8-8.2 | 28.15 | 27.29 | -0.86
#132 | Lehigh | 6-0 |11.1-0.9 | 28.09 | 24.84 | -3.24
#133 | Hawai'i | 1-4 | 3.6-8.4 | 27.01 | 24.40 | -2.62
#134 | Marshall | 3-2 | 5.8-6.2 | 26.78 | 28.46 | 1.68
#135 | Tarleton State | 5-0 |10.0-2.0 | 26.57 | 30.39 | 3.82
#136 | Idaho State | 4-1 | 8.8-3.2 | 25.99 | 27.74 | 1.74
#137 | Northern Illinois | 0-4 | 3.1-8.9 | 25.27 | 24.94 | -0.34
#138 | Mercer | 4-2 | 8.2-3.8 | 25.06 | 26.04 | 0.97
#139 | Western Kentucky | 1-4 | 3.7-8.3 | 24.80 | 26.52 | 1.73
#140 | Massachusetts | 4-1 | 6.8-5.2 | 24.41 | 25.11 | 0.70
#141 | Wyoming | 2-3 | 4.2-7.8 | 24.31 | 18.98 | -5.33
#142 | Southern Illinois | 3-3 | 5.5-6.5 | 24.29 | 25.31 | 1.01
#143 | Abilene Christian | 2-4 | 5.9-6.1 | 23.86 | 23.38 | -0.48
#144 | Bowling Green | 1-4 | 4.3-7.7 | 23.84 | 21.10 | -2.74
#145 | Kent State | 2-3 | 4.5-7.5 | 23.26 | 21.89 | -1.37
#146 | Northern Arizona | 4-2 | 8.1-3.9 | 23.04 | 25.71 | 2.66
#147 | East Tennessee State | 4-2 | 8.1-3.9 | 21.67 | 26.17 | 4.50
#148 | Northern Iowa | 2-2 | 4.9-6.1 | 21.53 | 25.03 | 3.49
#149 | Ball State | 1-4 | 3.6-8.4 | 21.28 | 23.93 | 2.65
#150 | Tennessee Tech | 4-1 | 8.3-3.7 | 21.11 | 25.62 | 4.52
#151 | Akron | 1-4 | 3.4-8.6 | 20.75 | 24.44 | 3.69
#152 | Idaho | 1-4 | 5.0-7.0 | 20.59 | 28.95 | 8.36
#153 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 4.0-8.0 | 20.43 | 21.99 | 1.56
#154 | Buffalo | 2-3 | 4.3-7.7 | 20.27 | 24.89 | 4.62
#155 | Harvard | 3-0 | 7.5-2.5 | 19.98 | 20.10 | 0.12
#156 | Gardner-Webb | 2-4 | 6.3-5.7 | 19.56 | 21.59 | 2.03
#157 | Colgate | 4-2 | 8.6-3.4 | 19.44 | 18.44 | -1.00
#158 | Western Carolina | 3-3 | 6.8-5.2 | 19.31 | 28.37 | 9.06
#159 | Lamar | 4-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 19.13 | 20.40 | 1.27
#160 | Princeton | 2-1 | 6.5-3.5 | 18.05 | 17.37 | -0.68
#161 | Yale | 2-1 | 6.4-3.6 | 17.40 | 25.73 | 8.33
#162 | Chattanooga | 3-3 | 6.1-5.9 | 16.77 | 14.19 | -2.58
#163 | Southeast Missouri State | 2-3 | 6.6-5.4 | 16.77 | 18.02 | 1.25
#164 | West Florida | 3-2 | 7.2-3.8 | 16.74 | 21.05 | 4.30
#165 | UC Davis | 4-2 | 7.5-4.5 | 16.69 | 26.01 | 9.32
#166 | UTEP | 1-4 | 2.6-9.4 | 16.65 | 23.88 | 7.24
#167 | Dartmouth | 1-2 | 5.0-5.0 | 16.10 | 18.62 | 2.52
#168 | Campbell | 5-1 | 8.9-3.1 | 15.74 | 23.42 | 7.68
#169 | Eastern Washington | 1-5 | 3.9-8.1 | 15.57 | 24.62 | 9.05
#170 | UL Monroe | 0-5 |1.1-10.9 | 15.47 | 24.36 | 8.89
#171 | Sacramento State | 1-4 | 2.4-9.6 | 15.38 | 19.30 | 3.91
#172 | Cornell | 2-1 | 5.6-4.4 | 15.32 | 19.27 | 3.95
#173 | SE Louisiana | 3-2 | 6.8-5.2 | 15.24 | 23.42 | 8.18
#174 | Southern Utah | 2-4 | 5.5-6.5 | 15.05 | 23.47 | 8.42
#175 | Charlotte | 0-5 |0.6-11.4 | 14.93 | 20.59 | 5.66
#176 | Stony Brook | 3-2 | 7.7-4.3 | 14.74 | 25.27 | 10.53
#177 | Northern Colorado | 2-4 | 4.1-7.9 | 14.54 | 18.32 | 3.78
#178 | Wofford | 3-3 | 5.7-6.3 | 13.75 | 21.58 | 7.84
#179 | North Alabama | 4-2 | 6.5-5.5 | 13.65 | 16.68 | 3.03
#180 | Western Illinois | 3-3 | 6.1-5.9 | 13.43 | 20.13 | 6.70
#181 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 2-3 | 5.7-6.3 | 13.32 | 18.08 | 4.77
#182 | Cal Poly | 3-3 | 5.1-6.9 | 13.21 | 21.78 | 8.57
#183 | Indiana State | 2-4 | 3.7-8.3 | 13.14 | 22.33 | 9.19
#184 | McNeese | 2-4 | 5.6-6.4 | 13.05 | 20.71 | 7.66
#185 | Incarnate Word | 2-3 | 6.2-5.8 | 12.93 | 21.84 | 8.91
#186 | Pennsylvania | 1-2 | 4.6-5.4 | 12.41 | 13.58 | 1.17
#187 | Weber State | 3-3 | 5.2-6.8 | 12.10 | 26.55 | 14.45
#188 | Monmouth | 4-2 | 8.3-3.7 | 12.08 | 23.77 | 11.69
#189 | UAlbany | 3-3 | 6.4-5.6 | 11.93 | 13.48 | 1.55
#190 | South Carolina State | 5-1 | 9.0-3.0 | 11.57 | 18.16 | 6.59
#191 | Rhode Island | 3-3 | 6.5-5.5 | 11.12 | 16.95 | 5.83
#192 | Furman | 2-4 | 5.2-6.8 | 11.09 | 15.02 | 3.92
#193 | Central Arkansas | 2-3 | 4.8-7.2 | 10.86 | 17.79 | 6.93
#194 | UT Martin | 1-4 | 4.5-7.5 | 10.86 | 17.81 | 6.95
#195 | Villanova | 2-4 | 5.4-6.6 | 10.58 | 19.32 | 8.75
#196 | Central Connecticut | 1-3 | 6.4-4.6 | 10.53 | 22.03 | 11.50
#197 | Charleston Southern | 2-3 | 5.3-6.7 | 9.91 | 11.16 | 1.25
#198 | Brown | 1-2 | 4.1-5.9 | 9.57 | 11.48 | 1.91
#199 | Elon | 4-2 | 7.0-5.0 | 8.75 | 16.35 | 7.60
#200 | Holy Cross | 2-4 | 5.6-6.4 | 8.59 | 17.34 | 8.75
#201 | Prairie View A&M | 2-4 | 5.9-6.1 | 8.53 | 15.92 | 7.39
#202 | Samford | 1-4 | 2.7-9.3 | 8.29 | 15.91 | 7.62
#203 | Jackson State | 5-0 | 9.1-1.9 | 8.22 | 17.61 | 9.39
#204 | Alabama State | 3-2 | 8.0-4.0 | 8.18 | 14.66 | 6.48
#205 | Lindenwood | 1-3 | 4.5-6.5 | 7.38 | 15.77 | 8.39
#206 | Richmond | 5-1 | 7.4-4.6 | 6.96 | 16.13 | 9.18
#207 | Bryant | 4-1 | 6.9-5.1 | 6.76 | 15.36 | 8.61
#208 | East Texas A&M | 2-4 | 4.6-7.4 | 6.60 | 14.11 | 7.50
#209 | Eastern Kentucky | 1-4 | 2.8-9.2 | 6.55 | 14.20 | 7.65
#210 | The Citadel | 2-3 | 4.1-7.9 | 6.34 | 19.16 | 12.82
#211 | Towson | 0-6 | 2.8-9.2 | 6.27 | 18.52 | 12.25
#212 | Sacred Heart | 2-3 | 5.6-5.4 | 6.05 | 13.01 | 6.97
#213 | Morgan State | 4-1 | 8.0-4.0 | 5.72 | 18.02 | 12.30
#214 | Alabama A&M | 4-2 | 7.9-4.1 | 5.06 | 15.61 | 10.55
#215 | Houston Christian | 3-3 | 5.4-6.6 | 4.91 | 11.98 | 7.07
#216 | Long Island University | 1-5 | 4.5-7.5 | 4.24 | 12.49 | 8.26
#217 | Portland State | 1-4 | 2.5-9.5 | 3.85 | 20.14 | 16.29
#218 | Jacksonville | 0-0 | 0.0-0.0 | 3.84 | 14.86 | 11.02
#219 | Eastern Illinois | 1-4 | 3.4-8.6 | 3.51 | 16.43 | 12.93
#220 | West Georgia | 1-4 | 2.5-9.5 | 3.48 | 14.64 | 11.16
#221 | Delaware State | 3-3 | 6.3-5.7 | 3.37 | 15.38 | 12.01
#222 | New Hampshire | 2-4 | 4.6-7.4 | 3.23 | 15.53 | 12.30
#223 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 3-2 | 6.4-4.6 | 3.22 | 18.87 | 15.64
#224 | Fordham | 1-5 | 4.0-8.0 | 2.99 | 12.44 | 9.46
#225 | North Carolina Central | 2-4 | 4.8-7.2 | 2.60 | 17.39 | 14.79
#226 | Robert Morris | 3-2 | 6.8-5.2 | 2.48 | 13.40 | 10.93
#227 | Butler | 4-1 | 8.5-3.5 | 2.34 | 18.25 | 15.91
#228 | Lafayette | 1-4 | 2.9-8.1 | 2.05 | 18.06 | 16.01
#229 | Howard | 2-3 | 5.2-6.8 | 1.98 | 13.40 | 11.41
#230 | St. Thomas (MN) | 4-2 | 8.1-3.9 | 1.96 | 17.58 | 15.62
#231 | Bethune-Cookman | 3-2 | 7.0-5.0 | 1.83 | 14.81 | 12.98
#232 | Columbia | 2-1 | 3.7-6.3 | 1.79 | 13.38 | 11.59
#233 | Norfolk State | 3-3 | 6.2-5.8 | 1.73 | 17.00 | 15.27
#234 | Maine | 1-5 | 2.6-8.4 | 1.16 | 12.06 | 10.90
#235 | Marist | 3-2 | 7.5-4.5 | 1.08 | 8.30 | 7.23
#236 | Utah Tech | 0-6 |1.1-10.9 | 1.02 | 15.85 | 14.84
#237 | Merrimack | 2-4 | 4.1-7.9 | 0.58 | 11.20 | 10.62
#238 | William & Mary | 2-4 | 4.5-7.5 | 0.30 | 17.29 | 16.99
#239 | Tennessee State | 1-4 | 3.2-8.8 | 0.18 | 10.70 | 10.52
#240 | Stonehill | 1-4 | 4.5-7.5 | -0.04 | 10.47 | 10.51
#241 | Dayton | 3-1 | 8.1-2.9 | -0.20 | 9.76 | 9.95
#242 | Grambling | 3-2 | 6.0-5.0 | -0.40 | 18.35 | 18.74
#243 | San Diego | 2-3 | 5.4-5.6 | -0.66 | 17.50 | 18.16
#244 | Georgetown | 0-4 | 1.8-8.2 | -1.51 | 10.90 | 12.41
#245 | Drake | 2-3 | 5.4-5.6 | -1.57 | 15.34 | 16.91
#246 | Bucknell | 1-4 | 3.0-9.0 | -2.13 | 8.34 | 10.48
#247 | Duquesne | 1-3 | 4.3-6.7 | -2.72 | 13.36 | 16.08
#248 | Nicholls | 2-4 | 3.5-8.5 | -2.74 | 12.27 | 15.01
#249 | North Carolina A&T | 1-5 | 3.7-8.3 | -2.81 | 10.85 | 13.66
#250 | Murray State | 1-5 |1.2-10.8 | -3.17 | 12.55 | 15.72
#251 | New Haven | 1-5 | 3.5-8.5 | -3.38 | 9.44 | 12.81
#252 | Alcorn State | 3-3 | 6.5-5.5 | -3.42 | 21.06 | 24.48
#253 | Mercyhurst | 1-5 | 3.6-8.4 | -4.20 | 13.27 | 17.47
#254 | Florida A&M | 1-4 | 3.9-8.1 | -6.04 | 13.26 | 19.30
#255 | Presbyterian | 2-3 | 5.7-5.3 | -7.52 | 12.43 | 19.95
#256 | Valparaiso | 2-3 | 4.6-6.4 | -7.81 | 7.48 | 15.29
#257 | Texas Southern | 1-4 | 3.4-7.6 | -9.81 | 12.12 | 21.94
#258 | Wagner | 1-4 | 2.3-9.7 | -13.17 | 7.38 | 20.55
#259 | Southern | 2-4 | 3.4-8.6 | -13.58 | 6.98 | 20.56
#260 | Hampton | 1-5 |1.6-10.4 | -14.44 | 5.16 | 19.59
#261 | Northwestern State | 0-6 |0.6-11.4 | -16.09 | 8.78 | 24.87
#262 | Mississippi Valley State | 2-4 | 3.1-8.9 | -16.90 | 6.00 | 22.90
#263 | Chicago State | 1-5 | 3.2-7.8 | -17.31 | 6.63 | 23.95
#264 | VMI | 0-6 |0.2-11.8 | -19.07 | 2.37 | 21.43
#265 | Stetson | 1-4 | 3.0-9.0 | -21.14 | 3.84 | 24.98
#266 | Davidson | 2-4 | 3.3-8.7 | -26.87 | 2.58 | 29.45
#267 | Morehead State | 1-4 | 2.1-9.9 | -28.38 | -0.84 | 27.54

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Jumped up all the way from #6 this week, mostly because they blew out a team that the model kept ranked. FSU winning big (climbing from 59 to 34) also helped Bama, as the way the Kalman filter works does retroactively adjust how games are viewed
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Accounting for home field advantage and relying on scores rather than explicitly wins, the model treats OSU-Texas as evidence that OSU is better than Texas. At the moment Bama and OSU are sort of in a tier on their own.
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Has the best projected record of the top 25, with the model predicting 11.3 wins
4 Indiana Hoosiers The preseason expectation is really helping them, without it they would be #12
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 Miami Hurricanes
7 Texas Longhorns
8 Utah Utes Model has been really high on Utah and a couple other B12 teams since last year, but they actually stay #8 even if only this year's scores are included in the calculation. The bold model prediction is that they go 11.0-1.0, 3rd best of FBS behind only Notre Dame and JMU
9 Oregon Ducks
10 LSU Tigers Last team above what seems to be the main tier gap in the current rankings.
11 Northwestern Wildcats
12 Tennessee Volunteers
13 Iowa Hawkeyes
14 Texas Tech Red Raiders
15 Texas A&M Aggies Good chance they're one of those teams the model refuses to drop despite not winning, they're projected 6.6-5.4
16 Florida Gators Fell less than I expected, but that's really only because of the tier gap- they actually lost a full touchdown per game on power rating, there just weren't enough teams within that touchdown range for them to fall further
17 Nebraska Cornhuskers
18 UCLA Bruins
19 Missouri Tigers This week's biggest riser, they were #53 last week
20 BYU Cougars
21 Wisconsin Badgers
22 Wake Forest Demon Deacons Program is quite low on the ACC overall, with only two ranked teams. Pretty sure Wake needed every touchdown they got this week to jump in. Meanwhile, Pitt fell out because the program was so low on VT (who was #56 coming into the week)
23 Ole Miss Rebels
24 Penn State Nittany Lions I really don't know why they're still here, I just report what the model tells me to. They were actually at #31 right after losing their game and then somehow bounced back up as other games happened. I blame Wisconsin.
25 Mississippi State Bulldogs Only moved down two spots despite getting blown out, both because the model thinks Bama really is that good and because Mizzou taking a huge jump up buoyed MSU along with them

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