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BosskOnASegway Ballot for 2026 Week 4

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 21, 2026, 12:54 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Overall, things are slowly starting to match human intuition. Things still look strange and got some questions last week, but retroactive analysis shows the in-season model still captures 99.2% of observed outcomes and the blended captures 90.0%. Week 2's blended model also successfully predicted 81.3% of games with a Brier of 0.1296.

Here are the week over week performances:

Games Prior snapshot n Accuracy MSE (Brier)
Week 1 Preseason 99 77/99 = 77.9% 0.1612
Week 2 Post-week-1 blend 86 63/86 = 73.3% 0.1577
Week 3 Post-week-2 blend 75 61/75 = 81.3% 0.1296

I also captured the top 5 risers and fallers this week.

Top 5 risers (by rank):

Kentucky — #93 → #52 (+41), Elo +206.2
Louisville — #64 → #29 (+35), Elo +201.0
James Madison — #101 → #68 (+33), Elo +167.0
West Virginia — #107 → #76 (+31), Elo +168.4
UCF — #60 → #35 (+25), Elo +161.4

Top 5 fallers (by rank):

UAB — #92 → #121 (−29), Elo −101.2
Troy — #54 → #80 (−26), Elo −97.7
Arkansas St. — #67 → #93 (−26), Elo −72.2
Sam Houston — #87 → #113 (−26), Elo −69.1
Tulsa — #22 → #47 (−25), Elo −88.6

Most interesting observations:

Georgia's strength of schedule so far is among the worst in the country and low signal from blowouts means their in-season rating is very low. They are preseason #3 and in-season #46. The blend has them 7th. As this blend falls off, the signal from their future opponent's should pull them up. They illustrate why I use the blended model and phase out preseason to improve accuracy. Tennessee State is part of the #132 NON_FBS node, WKU is the worst team in the country at #139, Arkansas isn't much better at #120.

Oregon is similarly propped up by preseason with #58 in-season as longer chains correct their previous week over valuing.

Alabama is the new in season #1 but is held back by a #18 preseason. Ohio State is #10 in season propped by a #2 preseason.

Our top 30 table

Rank Team Blended InSeason_Rank InSeason_Elo Preseason_Rank Preseason_Elo PostWk2_Rank PostWk2_Elo DeltaRank DeltaElo
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1995.0 2 1940.3 1 2049.7 1 1978.6 0 +16.4
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 1904.4 10 1833.0 2 1975.8 3 1900.8 1 +3.6
3 Alabama Crimson Tide 1840.4 1 2068.6 18 1612.2 13 1690.4 10 +150.0
4 Texas Longhorns 1836.8 3 1924.8 8 1748.9 7 1757.6 3 +79.2
5 BYU Cougars 1828.5 19 1755.0 4 1902.1 6 1799.4 1 +29.1
6 Miami Hurricanes 1814.2 6 1897.7 11 1730.7 11 1736.3 5 +77.9
7 Georgia Bulldogs 1772.9 46 1593.3 3 1952.6 8 1750.6 1 +22.3
8 USC Trojans 1769.4 23 1723.4 7 1815.5 4 1845.6 -4 -76.2
9 Texas Tech Red Raiders 1768.9 32 1658.2 6 1879.7 9 1748.9 0 +20.0
10 Ole Miss Rebels 1765.8 8 1868.6 16 1663.0 27 1584.5 17 +181.3
11 Michigan Wolverines 1733.7 14 1801.2 14 1666.3 14 1686.7 3 +47.0
12 Oklahoma Sooners 1732.0 25 1718.0 10 1745.9 12 1714.1 0 +17.9
13 Pittsburgh Panthers 1731.1 9 1866.4 20 1595.9 18 1626.5 5 +104.6
14 Oregon Ducks 1728.3 58 1557.5 5 1899.2 2 1931.3 -12 -203.0
15 Virginia Tech Hokies 1714.7 4 1920.7 36 1508.6 31 1555.8 16 +158.9
16 Tennessee Volunteers 1682.6 28 1702.1 15 1663.1 17 1644.0 1 +38.6
17 Maryland Terrapins 1673.9 20 1735.8 19 1611.9 16 1653.1 -1 +20.8
18 Florida Gators 1668.7 12 1815.5 34 1522.0 25 1586.7 7 +82.0
19 Indiana Hoosiers 1667.6 47 1587.9 9 1747.4 5 1830.5 -14 -162.9
20 Texas A&M Aggies 1643.6 44 1598.6 12 1688.5 10 1737.9 -10 -94.3
21 Northwestern Wildcats 1616.9 24 1721.1 35 1512.8 43 1499.8 22 +117.1
22 Mississippi State Bulldogs 1610.2 5 1904.0 67 1316.3 40 1501.7 18 +108.5
23 Missouri Tigers 1599.9 26 1712.8 37 1486.9 30 1569.8 7 +30.1
24 LSU Tigers 1599.1 13 1812.6 55 1385.6 23 1595.0 -1 +4.1
25 SMU Mustangs 1596.8 39 1619.0 22 1574.6 26 1584.9 1 +11.9

Rank Team Reason
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1978.6 -> 1995.0 [+16.4] (#1 -> #1)
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 1900.8 -> 1904.4 [+3.6] (#3 -> #2)
3 Alabama Crimson Tide 1690.4 -> 1840.4 [+150.0] (#13 -> #3)
4 Texas Longhorns 1757.6 -> 1836.8 [+79.2] (#7 -> #4)
5 BYU Cougars 1799.4 -> 1828.5 [+29.1] (#6 -> #5)
6 Miami Hurricanes 1736.3 -> 1814.2 [+77.9] (#11 -> #6)
7 Georgia Bulldogs 1750.6 -> 1772.9 [+22.3] (#8 -> #7)
8 USC Trojans 1845.6 -> 1769.4 [-76.2] (#4 -> #8)
9 Texas Tech Red Raiders 1748.9 -> 1768.9 [+20.0] (#9 -> #9)
10 Ole Miss Rebels 1584.5 -> 1765.8 [+181.3] (#27 -> #10)
11 Michigan Wolverines 1686.7 -> 1733.7 [+47.0] (#14 -> #11)
12 Oklahoma Sooners 1714.1 -> 1732.0 [+17.9] (#12 -> #12)
13 Pittsburgh Panthers 1626.5 -> 1731.1 [+104.6] (#18 -> #13)
14 Oregon Ducks 1931.3 -> 1728.3 [-203.0] (#2 -> #14)
15 Virginia Tech Hokies 1555.8 -> 1714.7 [+158.9] (#31 -> #15)
16 Tennessee Volunteers 1644.0 -> 1682.6 [+38.6] (#17 -> #16)
17 Maryland Terrapins 1653.1 -> 1673.9 [+20.8] (#16 -> #17)
18 Florida Gators 1586.7 -> 1668.7 [+82.0] (#25 -> #18)
19 Indiana Hoosiers 1830.5 -> 1667.6 [-162.9] (#5 -> #19)
20 Texas A&M Aggies 1737.9 -> 1643.6 [-94.3] (#10 -> #20)
21 Northwestern Wildcats 1499.8 -> 1616.9 [+117.1] (#43 -> #21)
22 Mississippi State Bulldogs 1501.7 -> 1610.2 [+108.5] (#40 -> #22)
23 Missouri Tigers 1569.8 -> 1599.9 [+30.1] (#30 -> #23)
24 LSU Tigers 1595.0 -> 1599.1 [+4.1] (#23 -> #24)
25 SMU Mustangs 1584.9 -> 1596.8 [+11.9] (#26 -> #25)

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