DataDrivenPirate Ballot for 2026 Week 4
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 21, 2026, 11:16 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Computer model that minimizes the squared error difference between projected spread and actual spread, adjusted for home field advantage (~2.5pts) and with a decay to put more weight in recent games and less weight in games earlier in the season. Ratings are centered at the median and scaled by an assumption that the spread between the best and worst team would be -60. Ratings are in parentheses in description for select teams.
AP top 10 absences and rank (rating): Georgia - 39 (9.51), Indiana - 42 (9.26), BYU - 55 (5.83)
Bottom 5: Kent State (-23.66), Wyoming (-23.72), Bowling Green (-27.58), Sacramento State (-28.79), Western Kentucky (-30)
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
(30) |
| 2 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
(28.84) |
| 3 |
Texas Longhorns
|
(26.11) |
| 4 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
(24.28) |
| 5 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
(23.33) |
| 6 |
Florida Gators
|
(21.15) |
| 7 |
LSU Tigers
|
(21.02) |
| 8 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
(20.13) |
| 9 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
(19.34) |
| 10 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
(18.55) |
| 11 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
|
| 12 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
|
| 13 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
|
| 14 |
UCF Knights
|
|
| 15 |
Oregon Ducks
|
(16.68) |
| 16 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
|
| 17 |
West Virginia Mountaineers
|
|
| 18 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
|
| 19 |
Virginia Tech Hokies
|
|
| 20 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
(14.58) |
| 21 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
|
| 22 |
Auburn Tigers
|
|
| 23 |
Northwestern Wildcats
|
|
| 24 |
Army West Point
|
|
| 25 |
New Mexico Lobos
|
(12.30) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.72 |
| 2 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.25 |
| 3 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.29 |
| 5 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
1.60 |
| 6 |
Florida Gators
|
1.45 |
| 7 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.74 |
| 8 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
3.91 |
| 9 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.51 |
| 10 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
15.11 |
| 11 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
5.13 |
| 12 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-1.12 |
| 13 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
5.45 |
| 14 |
UCF Knights
|
11.21 |
| 15 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.23 |
| 16 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-2.63 |
| 17 |
West Virginia Mountaineers
|
1.09 |
| 18 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
4.73 |
| 19 |
Virginia Tech Hokies
|
0.47 |
| 20 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
-0.42 |
| 21 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
-0.05 |
| 22 |
Auburn Tigers
|
3.15 |
| 23 |
Northwestern Wildcats
|
0.96 |
| 24 |
Army West Point
|
1.24 |
| 25 |
New Mexico Lobos
|
0.25 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Georgia Bulldogs
|
3.28 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
2.86 |
BYU Cougars
|
3.20 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
2.17 |
USC Trojans
|
1.82 |
Utah Utes
|
1.73 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.87 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.34 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.41 |
Duke Blue Devils
|
0.00 |
Total Score: 81.40