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arbadak Ballot for 2026 Week 3

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 13, 2026, 3:54 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Modified Colley Matrix with a win-weighted sigmoid margin transform and a fixed 2.8-point home-field advantage adjustment. Winning is the primary factor; margin of victory provides diminishing secondary differentiation, effectively soft-capping around three scores.

New: LSU, Notre Dame, Penn State, Indiana, UCLA, Florida, Alabama, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Colorado State, Auburn, Virginia, Nebraska, Wake Forest, Cincinnati.

Dropped: App State, Arizona State, Army, BYU, Georgia, Kansas State, Louisiana Tech, Memphis, Minnesota, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Texas, UCF, UConn.

Note: I'd made an oversight with HFA where a close home win of 1 or 2 pts would be a worse result than losing on the road by the same margins, a la Texas v Ohio State. As such, there's now an adjustment to ensure that wins are always better than losses. Change is relative to the new method, not my last poll. Texas dropped out despite winning with the new message because it was a close win at home and the poll doesn't respect Ohio State yet.

Rank Team Reason
1 USC Trojans .789 rating, 3-0, SOS .561 (+1)
2 LSU Tigers .754 rating, 2-0, SOS .532 (NEW, +31)
3 Texas A&M Aggies .751 rating, 2-0, SOS .527 (+19)
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .750 rating, 2-0, SOS .520 (NEW, +42)
5 Penn State Nittany Lions .735 rating, 2-0, SOS .507 (NEW, +26)
6 Indiana Hoosiers .731 rating, 2-0, SOS .474 (NEW, +31)
7 UCLA Bruins .725 rating, 2-0, SOS .530 (NEW, +46)
8 Florida Gators .724 rating, 2-0, SOS .456 (NEW, +21)
9 North Dakota State Bison .723 rating, 3-0, SOS .455 (-8)
10 Maryland Terrapins .723 rating, 2-0, SOS .467 (+1)
11 Utah Utes .719 rating, 2-0, SOS .454 (+7)
12 Miami Hurricanes .718 rating, 2-0, SOS .441 (-8)
13 Alabama Crimson Tide .717 rating, 2-0, SOS .456 (NEW, +23)
14 Missouri Tigers .713 rating, 2-0, SOS .470 (NEW, +21)
15 Virginia Tech Hokies .709 rating, 2-0, SOS .454 (-9)
16 Mississippi State Bulldogs .708 rating, 2-0, SOS .435 (+8)
17 Pittsburgh Panthers .704 rating, 2-0, SOS .546 (NEW, +15)
18 Georgia State Panthers .703 rating, 2-0, SOS .457 (+5)
19 Colorado State Rams .699 rating, 2-0, SOS .449 (NEW, +42)
20 Auburn Tigers .697 rating, 2-0, SOS .548 (NEW, +63)
21 Virginia Cavaliers .697 rating, 2-0, SOS .422 (NEW, +34)
22 South Carolina Gamecocks .697 rating, 2-0, SOS .405 (-9)
23 Nebraska Cornhuskers .696 rating, 2-0, SOS .417 (NEW, +28)
24 Wake Forest Demon Deacons .694 rating, 2-0, SOS .542 (NEW, +38)
25 Cincinnati Bearcats .694 rating, 2-0, SOS .440 (NEW, +40)

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